by Lance Roberts
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The S&P 500 extended its losing streak to three consecutive weeks, the first such run in roughly a year. The convergence of geopolitical shock, private credit stress, and deteriorating economic data gave investors little reason to buy the dip.
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Over the last couple of weeks, we have shared evidence that supports the reflationary narrative and some that defies it. Today, we share the latest ISM Manufacturing data, which lends credence to the reflationary narrative. The ISM Manufacturing survey showed a big improvement in sentiment, as shown below. The gauge shot up 4.7 to 52.6, …
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🔎 At a Glance 🏛️ Market Brief – Market Volatility Returns Markets ended the week mixed as investors processed the Federal Reserve’s latest policy decision, rising geopolitical tensions, and the early results of the S&P 500 earnings season. The Fed held the federal funds rate steady at 3.50–3.75 percent, as expected. Chair Jerome Powell maintained …
Do Sentiment Trends Boost Reflation Odds
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On Monday, we discussed how the Truflation inflation gauge points to a sudden price decline, which clouds the reflation outlook. Today, we share recent consumer sentiment readings that counter the disinflation story and support the reflation narrative. On Friday, the University of Michigan reported that its consumer sentiment index improved in January to a five-month …
The “Double Bubble”
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🔎 At a Glance 💬 Ask a Question Have a question about the markets, your portfolio, or a topic you’d like us to cover in a future newsletter? 📩 Email: [email protected]🐦 Follow & DM on X: @LanceRoberts📰 Subscribe on Substack: @LanceRoberts We read every message and may feature your question in next week’s issue! 🏛️ …
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