Lance Roberts
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The S&P 500 extended its losing streak to three consecutive weeks, the first such run in roughly a year. The convergence of geopolitical shock, private credit stress, and deteriorating economic data gave investors little reason to buy the dip.
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ISM Manufacturing Supports Reflationary Forecasts
2026-02-04
Over the last couple of weeks, we have shared evidence that supports the reflationary narrative and some that defies it. Today, we share the latest ISM Manufacturing data, which lends credence to the reflationary narrative. The ISM Manufacturing survey showed a big improvement in sentiment, as shown below. The gauge shot up 4.7 to 52.6, …
Private Credit Funds Falling Out Of Favor
2026-02-03
Private credit funds were all the rage in 2024 and 2025 as institutional and high-net-worth retail investors sought more risk and higher returns. Over the last few months, that trend has started reversing. The FT reports that private credit investors pulled more than $7 billion from some of the biggest private credit funds in the …
Bears Are An Endangered Species
2026-01-31
🔎 At a Glance 🏛️ Market Brief – Market Volatility Returns Markets ended the week mixed as investors processed the Federal Reserve’s latest policy decision, rising geopolitical tensions, and the early results of the S&P 500 earnings season. The Fed held the federal funds rate steady at 3.50–3.75 percent, as expected. Chair Jerome Powell maintained …
Do Sentiment Trends Boost Reflation Odds
2026-01-27
On Monday, we discussed how the Truflation inflation gauge points to a sudden price decline, which clouds the reflation outlook. Today, we share recent consumer sentiment readings that counter the disinflation story and support the reflation narrative. On Friday, the University of Michigan reported that its consumer sentiment index improved in January to a five-month …
2025-12-13
🔎 At a Glance 💬 Ask a Question Have a question about the markets, your portfolio, or a topic you’d like us to cover in a future newsletter? 📩 Email: [email protected]🐦 Follow & DM on X: @LanceRoberts📰 Subscribe on Substack: @LanceRoberts We read every message and may feature your question in next week’s issue! 🏛️ …
ChatGPT Gives Financial Advice On Volatile Markets
2025-10-13
Following Friday’s selloff amid the resurgence of tariff threats on China, I asked ChatGPT a simple question: ” How to Stay Calm In The Stock Market?” That simple question generated an engaging and humorous take on financial advice for navigating volatile markets. In this week’s post, I thought it would be helpful to review ChatGPT’s advice …
OpenAI: Fueling Massive AI Stock Gains
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As we led in yesterday’s Commentary, AMD rose 25% on the news that OpenAI would purchase 10% of AMD. In exchange, OpenAI will become a significant customer of AMD. This symbiotic relationship is just one of many that OpenAI is forming with companies at the forefront of the AI revolution. The bullet points and graphic …
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