Tag Archive: U.S. Dollar Index

Weekly Technical Analysis: 04/12/2017 – USD/CHF, GBP/USD, EUR/GBP, GBP/JPY, GBP/CAD

2017-12-05

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2017-12-05

USD/CHF, December 05
USD/CHF, GBP/USD, EUR/GBP, GBP/JPY, GBP/CAD

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Weekly Technical Analysis: 28/11/2017 – USD/CHF, USD/JPY, EUR/USD, GBP/USD, GBP/JPY

2017-11-28

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2017-11-28

USD/CHF, November 28
USD/CHF, USD/JPY, EUR/USD, GBP/USD, GBP/JPY

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Weekly Technical Analysis: 20/11/2017 – USD/CHF, USD/JPY, EUR/USD, GBP/USD, GBP/AUD

2017-11-22

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2017-11-22

USD/CHF, November 20
USD/CHF, USD/JPY, EUR/USD, GBP/USD, GBP/AUD

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Bi-Weekly Economic Review: A Whirlwind of Data

2017-11-22

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2017-11-22

The economic data of the last two weeks was generally better than expected, the Citigroup Economic Surprise index near the highs of the year. Still, as I’ve warned repeatedly over the last few years, better than expected should not be confused with good. We go through mini-cycles all the time, the economy ebbing and flowing through the course of a business cycle.

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Weekly Technical Analysis: 13/11/2017 – USDCHF, USDJPY, EURUSD, GBPUSD, EURGBP

2017-11-15

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2017-11-15

USD/CHF, November 15
USDJPY, EURUSD, GBPUSD, EURGBP

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Bi-Weekly Economic Review: Gridlock & The Status Quo

2017-11-08

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2017-11-08

The good news is that the economy just printed its second consecutive quarter of 3% growth, a feat not accomplished since Q2 and Q3 2014. The bad news is that the growth spurt in 2014 was better, quantitatively and qualitatively. Those two quarters produced gains of 4.6% and 5.2% (annualized) in GDP, much better than the most recent 3.1% and 3% prints of Q2 and Q3 2017.

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Weekly Technical Analysis: 06/11/2017 – USDJPY, EURUSD, GBPUSD, AUDUSD

2017-11-06

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2017-11-06

Euro / Swiss Franc FX Cross Rate, November 06
USDJPY, EURUSD, GBPUSD, AUDUSD

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Global Asset Allocation Update

2017-11-05

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2017-11-05

Moderate Allocation
The risk budget this month shifts slightly as we add cash to the portfolio. For the moderate risk investor the allocation to bonds is unchanged at 50%, risk assets are reduced to 45% and cash is raised to 5%. The changes this month are modest and may prove temporary but I felt a move to reduce risk was prudent given signs of exuberance – rational, irrational or otherwise.

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Weekly Technical Analysis: 30/10/2017 – USDJPY, EURUSD, GBPUSD, EURGBP

2017-10-31

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2017-10-31

EUR/CHF and USD/CHF, October 31
USDJPY, EURUSD, GBPUSD, EURGBP

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Weekly Technical Analysis: 23/10/2017 – USDJPY, EURUSD, GBPUSD, USDCAD

2017-10-24

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2017-10-24

EUR/CHF and USD/CHF, October 24
USDJPY, EURUSD, GBPUSD, USDCAD

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Bi-Weekly Economic Review: Yawn

2017-10-24

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2017-10-24

When I wrote the update two weeks ago I said that we might be nearing the point of maximum optimism. Apparently, there is another gear for optimism in this market as stocks have just continued to slowly but surely reach for the sky.

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Dollar Dropped like Hot Potato After Core CPI Disappointed

2017-10-13

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2017-10-13

The dollar was bid before the US economic data. The market responded quickly upon seeing the disappointing 0.1% rise in core CPI. Given the base effect, the 0.1% increase kept the year-over-year rate at 1.7% for the fourth consecutive month. The dollar reversed lower.

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Weekly Technical Analysis: 09/10/2017 – EURJPY, EURAUD, USDCHF, GOLD

2017-10-10

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2017-10-10

EUR/CHF and USD/CHF, October 10
EURJPY, EURAUD, USDCHF, GOLD features

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Bi-Weekly Economic Review: Maximum Optimism?

2017-10-07

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2017-10-07

The economic reports of the last two weeks were generally of a more positive tone. The majority of reports were better than expected although it must be noted that many of those reports were of the sentiment variety, reflecting optimism about the future that may or may not prove warranted. Markets have certainly responded to the dreams of tax reform dancing in investors’ heads with US stock markets providing a steady stream of all time highs, bond...

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Dollar & Stocks Jump; Bonds & Bullion Dump In Lowest Volatility September Ever

2017-10-05

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2017-10-05

US Data Surprise Index, 2006 - 2017
It has now been 318 trading days since the S&P 500 suffered a 5% drawdown - the 4th-longest streak since 1928... So everything is awesome...BUT...US 'hard' economic data has not been this weak (and seen the biggest drop) since Feb 2009...Q3 Was a Roller-Coaster...Q3 was the 8th straight quarterly gain in a row for The Dow - the longest streak since Q3 1997.

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Weekly Technical Analysis: 02/10/2017 – USDJPY, EURUSD, GBPUSD, USDCAD

2017-10-05

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2017-10-05

EUR/CHF and USD/CHF, October 05
USDJPY, EURUSD, GBPUSD, USDCAD features

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Weekly Technical Analysis: 25/09/2017 – USDJPY, EURUSD, GBPUSD, NZDUSD

2017-09-28

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2017-09-28

EUR/CHF and USD/CHF, September 23
USDJPY, EURUSD, GBPUSD, NZDUSD features

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Bi-Weekly Economic Review: As Good As It Gets

2017-09-26

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2017-09-26

The incoming economic data hasn’t changed its tone all that much in the last several years. The US economy is growing but more slowly than it once did and we hope it does again. It is frustrating for economic bulls and bears, never fully satisfying either. Probably more important is the frustration of the average American, a dissatisfaction with the status quo that permeates the national debate. The housing bubble papered over the annoying lack of...

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Global Asset Allocation Update: Step Away From The Portfolio

2017-09-25

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2017-09-25

Moderate Allocation
There is no change to the risk budget this month. For the moderate risk investor, the allocation between risk assets and bonds is unchanged at 50/50. There are no changes to the portfolios this month. The post Fed meeting market reaction was a bit surprising in its intensity. The actions of the Fed were, to my mind anyway, pretty much as expected but apparently the algorithms that move markets today were singing from a different hymnal.

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Bi-Weekly Economic Review: Waiting For Irma

2017-09-11

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2017-09-11

This update will be a bit shorter than usual. I’m in Miami awaiting Hurricane Irma. As of now, it looks like the eye of the storm will make landfall near Key West and continue west of us with the Naples/Ft. Myers area at risk. Or at least that’s the way it looks right now. I’ve done a lot of these storms though – I lost a house in Andrew in ’92 – and you never know what these things will do. We are secure in a house that survived Andrew with barely...

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