Tag Archive: SPX

Cool Video: Bloomberg Economic Discussion

I joined Chris Wolfe from First Republic Wealth Management on the set of Bloomberg's Daybreak to discuss market developments and the outlook for the US economy. We generally agreed that while the economy is slowing it is doing so from unsustainably strong levels.

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FX Daily, December 10: Lack of Closure Weighs on Sentiment

Investors angst over trade tensions and Brexit continue remains elevated, and poor Chinese and Japanese economic news played on global growth fears. Equities continue to slog lower. Bond yields are little changed, and the dollar is lower against most of the major currencies.

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FX Daily, December 06: New Spanner in US-China Relations Weighs on Risk Appetites

Overview: The global capital markets were fragile amid trade uncertainty and economic slowdown fears. News that Canada arrested the CFO of Huawei on behalf of the US, ostensibly for violating the embargo against Iran triggered an almost immediate risk-off wave that has extended the equity markets losses, sending core bond yields lower, with the US 10-year slipping below 2.9%, and underpinning the dollar against most currencies, with the notable...

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FX Daily, December 04: Stock Rally Arrested, but Bond and Oil Advance Continues, leaving Dollar in a Lurch

Overview: Equity markets are unable to build on yesterday's advance, but bonds and oil are extending gains. The dollar remains on the defensive and is off again all the major currencies. The lack of a joint statement over the weekend by the US and China and seemingly different interpretations of what was agreed leaves investors in a lurch.

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Cool Video: Santa Claus Rally and Trade

I was on Fox Business today. Stuart Varney introduced me by asking me about my forecast for a Santa Claus rally--a year-end recovery in equities. From a technical perspective, I liked the fact that the S&P 500 successfully retested last month's lows last week. I liked that the price action made last Friday's price action into an island bottom, with a gap lower opening followed by Monday's gap higher opening.

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Great Graphic: Weekly Jobless Claims and the S&P 500

The softer than expected PCE deflator today plays into the dovish market mood. There may be little that can resist it until next Friday's employment data, which should be another robust report with hourly earnings holding above 3% year-over-year.  Last November, average hourly earnings rose by 0.3%. As this drops out of the year-over-year comparison, even a healthy bounce back from the 0.2% drop skewed by the hurricane will be needed just to hold...

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FX Daily, November 29: Reluctant to Extend Dollar Losses

Overview: The biggest US equity advance since Q1 has helped lift global markets today. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index rose for the fourth session, and nearly all the bourses in the region rallied with the notable exception of China and Hong Kong. Almost all the sectors in Europe are rallying but energy and real estate. US oil inventories rose three times more than expected and Putin expressed little support for fresh output cuts.

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FX Daily, November 27: Market Shrugs Off Latest US Tariff Provocation

The global capital markets have taken the US latest tariff threats in stride.  Most of the Asian equity markets advanced, including Japan, Korea, Taiwan, India, and Australia. China and Hong Kong were exceptions with marginal losses. European markets are trying to extend their recovery for a third session, but the industry performance is mixed with energy and materials lower, and utilities, consumer staples, and information technology/communication...

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FX Daily, November 21: A Semblance of Stability Returns

Yesterday's frenzy has burnt itself out for the moment. Equities began recovering in Asia after early losses. China, including Hong Kong, Singapore, and Thailand closed higher and European markets are recouping some of yesterday's decline. The Dow Jones Stoxx is trying to snap a five-day decline and is up a little more than 0.5% near midday.

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FX Daily, November 20: Equity Slide Continues

Yesterday's 3% drop in the NASDAQ is setting the tone for today. The US stock market advance had been led by a narrow group of equities, and those have come under strong pressure amid slower consumer demand and stricter export control. Asian equities were a sea of red today. Chinese markets led the sell-off with more than a 2% drop. In Europe, the Dow Jones Stoxx 600 is for a fifth session. 

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FX Daily, November 13: Weak Turn-Around Tuesday

Overview:  The US dollar has a heavier bias against most of the major and emerging markets currencies, but the pullback is shallow, and the greenback's underlying strength is still evident.  Asian equities were mixed.  Concern that Apple may be reducing orders weighed on suppliers, but news that China and US trade talks are resuming boosted sentiment, allowing Chinese stocks to recover helped lift the Australian and New Zealand dollars.

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Cool Video: Fox Biz TV Broad Economic Discussion

I joined Charles Payne on Fox Business TV for a broad economic discussion today.  Payne, like many, are concerned that the Fed continues to tighten and worries this is going to end the business cycle.  He also argued that the strong dollar was a significant threat of US multinational earnings.

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FX Weekly Preview: DOTS in the Week Ahead: Divergence, Oil, Trade and Stocks

The Federal Reserve's confidence in the economy and its need to continue to gradually increase interest rates stands in sharp contrast to most of the other major central banks. The European Central Bank will finish its asset purchases at the end of the year, but it is in no position to begin to normalize interest rates. Indeed, the risk is that it may feel compelled to off another Targeted Long-Term Repo, which would, in effect, allow the borrowers...

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FX Daily, November 07: Equities and Bonds Jump While the Dollar Slumps

The dollar has fallen against nearly every currency. It had been moving lower at the start of the week, but what seems like a correction broadened and deepened following the US midterm election. The outcome was largely in line with expectations for the Republicans to hold the Senate and the Democrats to take a majority of the House for the first time since 2010.

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FX Weekly Preview: Stocks, Trade, and the Fed in the Week Ahead

Last month's downdraft in equities spooked investors. The fear that is often expressed is that the end of the business cycle may coincide with the end of a credit cycle and a return to 2008-2009 crisis. It seems like an increasing number of economists agree with the sentiment expressed by President Trump that the Fed is too aggressive.

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FX Daily, October 31: No Fright on This Halloween

After sliding hard this month, equities continue to stabilize into month-end. All of the equity markets in Asia-Pacific rallied with the help of a solid close in the US. European bourses are higher too as the Dow Jones Stoxx 600 tries to extend the recovery for a third consecutive session, led by energy, materials, and information technology.

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FX Weekly Preview: Thumbnail Sketch of Six Things to Monitor This Week

Global equities have sold off hard. The magnitude of the recent loss is similar to what happened earlier this year. The MSCI World Index of developed countries fell 10.5% in January-February carnage and are now off about 11% this month. The MSCI Emerging Markets Index has matched the 11% loss back at the start of the year, but never truly recovering in between.

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FX Daily, October 25: ECB Overshadowed by Equity Market Drama

The Dollar Index broke above 96.00 yesterday and is consolidating today. Provided the 96.00 area holds, the next target is the year's high near 97.00. The euro has been confined to a little more than a quarter of a cent. Players seem reluctant to sell it below $1.14 and note there is a 570 mln euro option at $1.1420 that expires today.

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FX Daily, October 24: Disappointing Flash PMI Weighs on Euro

The US dollar is firmer against the major currencies and most emerging market currencies.  While the seemingly fragile equity markets are still the center of investors' attention, the weakness of the eurozone flash PMI is disconcerting and has sent the euro closer to $1.14.  China's officials continue to unveil initiatives to minimize the disruption of the equity and debt markets while seemingly adding to moral hazard risks. 

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FX Daily, October 23: Stock Slump Pushes Yields Lower and Buoys Yen

There is one main story today, and that is the resumption of the slide in equities. It is having a ripple effect through the capital markets. Bond yields are tumbling. Gold is firm. The dollar is narrowly mixed, though the yen stands out with almost a 0.5% gain. Most of the large equity markets in Asia, including Japan, China, Hong Kong, Korea, and Taiwan were off mostly 2%-3%.

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