Tag Archive: SPX

FX Daily, March 26: Semblance of Stability Re-Emerging

Overview:  The sell-off in equities seemed to peak yesterday, and US indices were narrowly mixed. Traders found comfort in that performance, even though the S&P 500 finished a little below 2800, and took the markets in the Asia-Pacific region higher, except in China, where the Shanghai Composite fell 1.5%. 

Read More »

FX Daily, March 25: Monday Blues: Equities Pare Quarterly Gains

Overview:  Global equities have soured after the US shares dropped the most since very early in the year before the weekend.  Asia's sell-off was led by the 3% decline in Nikkei, while Malaysia fared among the best, surrendering 1%.  Europe's Dow Jones Stoxx 600 is off for a fourth session. It lost 1.2% at the end of last week and gapped lower today but stabilizing after the better than expected German IFO survey.

Read More »

FX Daily, March 14: Another UK Vote, but No Closure

Overview:  The Brexit drama continues to play out, and the Withdrawal Bill that has been twice defeated is ironically not dead yet. Today's vote, in fact, is predicated on another "meaningful vote" before seeking an extension.  Sterling remains firm near yesterday's highs, which were the best levels since last June.

Read More »

FX Daily, March 11: Greenback Starts New Week Decidedly Mixed, with Brexit Anxiety Weighing on Sterling

Overview:  Asian shares recovered from opening losses to finish mostly higher, with the Shanghai Composite up nearly 2% and India tacking on 1% after the election was called, starting April 11.  European markets, led by energy, communication, and materials sectors, is up about 0.5% through midday. The S&P 500, which closed lower every day last week is looking a little firmer. 

Read More »

FX Weekly Preview: Brexit Comes to a Head, and while Europe and US Data Rebound, the Equity Rally Falters

Brexit comes to a head. By nearly all reckoning, the Withdrawal Bill will be resoundingly defeated in the House of Commons on March 12. The margin of defeat may not match the first rejection, but it will be the death knell to the path that had been negotiated for a year and a half.

Read More »

FX Daily, March 08: Equities Slump on Growth Concerns ahead of US Jobs

Overview: A weak economic assessment in the Beige Book and an ECB that slashed growth forecasts have been followed by news of a nearly 21% slump in China's exports have marked the end of the dramatic equity rally that was seen in the first part of 2019 after the sharp losses late last year. 

Read More »

FX Daily, March 07: EMU Looks to ECB

The ECB meeting is today's highlight. A dovish signal is expected. The euro remains pinned near its lows ahead it. The global equity market rally in January and February is faltering this week. Asian equities were mixed, but the Nikkei eased for the third consecutive session.

Read More »

FX Daily, March 05: Dollar Remains Firms as China Cuts Growth Target and Taxes, while EMU PMI Surprises on Upside

Overview:  It is an eventful day, but the capital markets are taking it in stride.  Equity markets are mixed.  Asia may have been weighed down by China's shaving its growth target and announced around CNY2 trillion (~$300 bln) in tax cuts to support the economy, though Chinese stocks edged higher. 

Read More »

FX Daily, February 28: Trump Walks Away from North Korea. Should Beijing Worry?

Overview:  News that the US-North Korean summit ended abruptly without an agreement spurred losses in equities and gains in the Swiss franc and Japanese yen. US President Trump willingness to walk away from the talks is important in and of itself, but it also sends a warning not to go all in on a US-China trade agreement that could also sour at the last minute.

Read More »

FX Daily, February 27: Dollar Trades Heavily, While Prospects of a Softer and Later Brexit Send Sterling Higher

Overview: As the North American session is about to begin, the markets await developments in the UK House of Commons where a vote is expected today on Prime Minister May's proposal to hold votes on around March 12 on the Withdrawal Bill and no deal. However, perceptions of a reduced likelihood of a no-deal exit continued to fuel sterling gains.

Read More »

FX Weekly Preview: The Week Ahead

After a dismal end of 2018, investors are faring better through the first two- thirds of the Q1 19. Equity markets have recouped a good part of the late-2018 decline. Bond yields, however, have not returned to where they previously were. The tightening of financial conditions, which was both cause and effect of heightened anxiety among investors, and spooked some central bank have eased considerably.

Read More »

Cool Video: Fox Business–Stocks and the US Consumer

I joined Varney and Company on Fox Business TV earlier today. Varney had liked by bullish call on stocks from the end of last year, but seemed dismayed that I have turned cautious. I suggested that the S&P are approaching a key area a little above 2800 that has capped in Q4 18.

Read More »

FX Daily, February 18: Dollar Drifts Lower

Overview:  In quiet turnover, the US dollar slipped lower against most of the major currencies to start the new week.  The news stream is light and the US markets are closed today.  The MSCI Asia Pacific Index was up five of the past six weeks and extended its gains today.  Nearly all the equity markets in the region rose but India.

Read More »

Cool Video: Noise or Signal?

From the second half of last week through the first half of this week, the S&P 500 rallied.  It surpassed our target of 2700 and made it to almost 2740, retracing more nearly 2/3 of the decline from the record high set last September. It stalled ahead of the 200-day moving average, which had previously offered support declines. 

Read More »

FX Daily, February 08: Dollar Index Seven-Day Advance is the Longest in Two Years

Overview:  As North American traders return to their posts to put the finishing touches on the week's activity, the Dollar Index is extending its advance for a seventh consecutive session.  If sustained, it will be the longest advance since February 2017. 

Read More »

FX Weekly Preview: The Week Ahead is Mostly About Digestion

The information set investors have is unlikely to substantively change in the coming days.  The important macro points are known.  The first part of February may be about digesting and making sense of that information rather than an incremental increase. 

Read More »

FX Daily, February 01: Did the Fed Steal the Jobs Data Thunder?

Overview:  Weak manufacturing PMI readings are curbing risk appetites ahead of the US jobs report.  Growth concerns are top and center after dovish Fed and the Bundesbank's Weidmann warning that Germany may undershoot 1.5% growth this year, though the ink is barely dry on the central bank's forecast for 1.6% growth this year and next.

Read More »

FX Daily, January 29: Fragile Tone Persists

The positive impulse in the capital markets seen last week has faded. The gap higher opening ahead of the weekend by the S&P 500 was follow by a gap lower opening yesterday. The US threatened crackdown on Huawei disrupted equities in that sector, with as many as two dozen companies on the Shenzhen exchange that were limit down (10%).

Read More »

FX Daily, January 28: Getting Ducks Lined Up for Later in the Week

Overview: The global capital markets are consolidating ahead of this week's big events, which include the FOMC meeting, US jobs, an important Brexit vote in the UK parliament and the first look at Q4 EMU and US GDP. The US dollar is narrowly mixed. Equities are mostly lower. European benchmark 10-year yields have edged up, though the US 10-year yield is struggling to hold above 2.75%.

Read More »

Summary of Fox Biz Talk

I had a brief talk on the set with of Fox Business with Varney & Co today, but there is no video available. We began by talking about stocks. For several weeks, I have been suggesting to viewers that the S&P 500 could recover to 2700. Last Friday, the S&P 500 gapped higher and reached 2675. I did not like the gap and thought it would be quickly filled.

Read More »
Page 11234