Tag Archive: Speculative Positions

Weekly Speculative Position: Switch to Net Long Canadian Dollar and Set New Record Gross Long Yen

2016-04-09

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2016-04-09

Speculators in the futures market were not particularly active in Commitment of Traders reporting week ending April 5.  There was only one gross position adjustment which we regard as significant (defined as a 10k contract change), and that was in the yen.   Yen bulls extended their gross long position by 13.3k contract to new record …

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Weekly Speculative Position: Yen Longs Near Record Levels

2016-03-26

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2016-03-26

The most extreme speculative positioning, judging from the futures market is the long yen position.  The bulls added another 3.4k contracts, lifting the gross long position to 82.8k contracts.  The record was set in 2008 at 94.7k contracts.   The gross short position was trimmed by 4.5k contracts, leaving 29.5k.  It is the smallest gross short position …

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Weekly Speculative Positions: Pile into Sterling and Take Profits on Long Aussie

2016-03-19

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2016-03-19

After a relatively quiet period into the run-up to the ECB, speculative activity markedly increased in the CFTC reporting week ending the day prior to the conclusion of the FOMC meeting. Two speculative gross currency position adjustments stand out.  First, speculators appeared to have bought a record amount of sterling contracts.  The gross long position more …

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Weekly Speculative Positions: Cut Long Sterling Exposure While Adding to Long Aussie

2016-03-12

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2016-03-12

The Commitment of Traders reporting period ending March 8 showed little position adjusting ahead of the ECB meeting two days later.  A little more than 3/4 of the gross positions we track saw less than 5k contract change and only two were above 6k. The gross long speculative sterling position was cut by a quarter …

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Weekly Speculative Positions: Speculators Add to Short Euro and Sterling

2016-03-06

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2016-03-06

Speculators in the currency futures made mostly small adjustments to their gross foreign currency exposure.  There were only three position adjustments of more than 5k contacts.   Since the markets turned on 11 February, the Canadian dollar has been the strongest of the major currencies, appreciating a little more than 4.5% against the US dollar.    Gross …

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Weekly Speculative Positions: Small Changes

2016-02-27

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2016-02-27

The position adjustment among speculators in the currency futures market were minor in the reporting week that ended February 23.  There was only one gross adjustment we regard as significant (more than 10k contracts).  The Mexican officials sprung a bear trap and forced speculators to cover.  There were 15.8k gross short peso in speculative hands that …

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Weekly Speculative Position: Dollar Bullish Speculators Still Hesitant

2016-02-21

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2016-02-21

The CFTC Commitment of Traders reporting week ending February 16 was short due to the US holiday.  This may have contributed to the small adjustments to speculative positioning in the currency futures.  It also may reflect the lack of convictio...

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Weekly Speculative Positions: Speculators Continue to Press

2016-02-13

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2016-02-13

There are two broad developments in speculative positioning in the Commitment of Traders report in the week ending February 9.  First, the market turbulence saw speculators reduce exposure.  Of the 16 gross positions we track, 11 were reducing ...

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Weekly Speculative Positions: Big Position Adjustment for Euro, Smaller for Yen

2016-02-07

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2016-02-07

The latest Commitment of Traders report covers the week ending February 2 that included the FOMC meeting and the BOJ's surprise cut.  There was also speculation of a potential deal between Russia and OPEC to cut output.  Speculative position adjustment in the futures market was more limited than one might have expected. Speculators cut 10.5k gross …

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Weekly Speculative Positions: Speculators Added to Long Yen Position Ahead of BOJ

2016-01-30

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2016-01-30

The latest CFTC Commitment of Traders report covers the five sessions through January 26, the day before the FOMC concluded its two-day meeting and three days before the BOJ's announcement.  Speculators hardly changed their positioning during th...

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Weekly Speculative Positioning before the Reversal

2016-01-23

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2016-01-23

The latest Commitment of Traders report that covers the four sessions through January 19 saw speculators anticipating the continuation of the current moves.  Of the sixteen gross positions we track, only five were in reducing exposures.  Last week there was only six increased exposures. With the benefit of hindsight, we know that something changed a day …

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Weekly Speculative Positions: Boosted Long Yen Positions, but Mostly Trimmed Exposures

2016-01-16

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2016-01-16

Speculative activity in the CME currency futures picked up in the latest reporting period. There were six significant gross position adjustments, which in our work is more than 10k contracts.   The gross short speculative euro position was reduced by 17.9k contracts, leaving 209.6k. Since early December, 53k gross short euro contracts were covered.  During the same …

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Weekly Speculative Positions: First Net Long Yen in 3 Years

2016-01-09

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2016-01-09

Due to the holidays, the CFTC has been releasing its Commitment of Traders report late.  With this week's  report, the normal Friday release schedule resumes.   The latest report covers the shortened week through January 5.  It is not surpr...

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Weekly Speculative Positions: Significant Position Adjustment Ahead of FOMC Meeting

2015-12-19

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2015-12-19

Speculative position adjustments in the currency futures were minimal in the immediate aftermath of the ECB's December 3 meeting and US employment data the following day. However, activity dramatically increased in the days ahead of the FOMC meeting on December 16.   In most Commitment of Traders reports the gross position adjustment of 10k or more …

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Weekly Speculative Position Limited: Adjustment Warns USD Correction may not be Over

2015-12-12

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2015-12-12

1. Activity increased during the Commitment of Traders reporting week ending 8 December.  There were four significant (10k+ contracts) gross currency adjustments by speculators.  Given that this period covers the second largest gain in the euro's history, it is surprising that it did not meet the threshold.  It is astounding that only that speculators added only …

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Observations from the Speculative Positioning in the Futures Market

2015-12-05

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2015-12-05

1.  Given the large moves in prices shortly after the CFTC reporting period ended on 1 December renders the latest Commitment of Traders report more dated than is usually the case. 2.  The Thanksgiving holiday that closed US markets reduced par...

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Weekly Speculative Positions: Observations

2015-11-22

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2015-11-22

1.  The continued build of short currency futures positions characterizes the changes in the speculative positioning.  All the currency futures we track saw an increase in gross short positions. This is what drove the large net short positions.  One thing this means is that late shorts are in weak hands, and as we have seen …

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Weekly Speculative Positions: Observations

2015-11-17

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2015-11-17

1. In the Commitment of Traders reporting week ending November 10 covers the few days before the US employment data and a few days after. Speculative participants made five significant (10k contracts or more) adjustments to gross positions in the currency futures. The prior reporting period saw only three significant adjustments,...

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History of SNB Interventions

SNB Assets vs. Liabilities source UBS with EUR/CHF FX rate
High inflows of around 400 billion francs between 2009 and 2012 in the Swiss balance of payments could only be countered with an increase in reserve assets and interventions by the Swiss National Bank. This number is far higher than the one seen during the collapse of the Bretton Woods system, when the ten times bigger Germany had to buy reserves for 71 billion German Marks (at the time around 56 billion CHF). We look at the detailed history of...

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Currency Positioning and Technical Outlook August 12: Corrective Pressures Dominate

2013-08-12

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2013-08-12

Submitted by Marc Chandler, Global Head of Currency Strategy, Brown Brothers Harriman The main tension in the foreign exchange market is between positions adjusting pressures, which are US dollar negative, and widely held ideas that the trajectory of growth and interest rate differentials favor the US, which is dollar positive. There are some important economic data due …

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