Tag Archive: newslettersent

Upside risks to wages from IG Metall negotiations

2018-01-21

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2018-01-21

Euro area and German Wage Growth, 1999 - 2018
German wage negotiations are in full swing amid growing calls for strikes. This comes at a crucial time for the ECB as strong growth and falling unemployment are expected to feed into higher inflation. IG Metall is by far the most important union to watch, representing almost 4 million German workers and being seen as a benchmark, including in the car industry or the construction sector this year.

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Nestlé to move chocolate research from Switzerland to UK

2018-01-21

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2018-01-21

The Swiss food giant Nestlé is transfering its chocolate research centre from Broc in canton Fribourg to York in the north of England. Some 25 jobs are affected but the existing chocolate factory in the Swiss town is not threatened.

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The Next Great Bull Market in Gold Has Begun – Rickards

2018-01-21

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2018-01-21

Gold Price in USD, July 2008 - October 2017
The Next Great Bull Market in Gold Has Begun – Rickards on Peak Gold And Technicals. ‘Gold is in the early stages of a sustainable long-term bull market’ Rickards. Rickards believes the next bull market in gold will be even more powerful than those of 1971–1980 and 1999–2011. This new rally could send gold $1,475 or higher by next summer thanks to Fed rate hikes. Warns of Peak Gold ‘Physical gold is in short supply. Refiners can’t get enough to...

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It’s Time to Retire “Capitalism”

2018-01-21

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2018-01-21

The Fruit of Financialization, 1980 - 2014
Our current socio-economic system is nothing but the application of force on the many to enforce the skims, scams and privileges of the self-serving few. I've placed the word capitalism in quotation marks to reflect the reality that this word now covers a wide spectrum of economic activities, very little of which is actually capitalism as classically defined.

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As the Controlled Inflation Scheme Rolls On

2018-01-21

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2018-01-21

Our Binge Culture
American consumers are not only feeling good. They are feeling great. They are borrowing money – and spending it – like tomorrow will never come. On Monday the Federal Reserve released its latest report of consumer credit outstanding. According to the Fed’s bean counters, U.S. consumers racked up $28 billion in new credit card debt and in new student, auto, and other non-mortgage loans in November.

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Swiss authorities to consider blockchain supervision

2018-01-20

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2018-01-20

The federal authorities have set up a special working group to look into how to properly oversee blockchain technologies and initial coin offerings (ICO). The Swiss taskforce is set to report back by the end of 2018. The State Secretariat for International Financial Matters (SIF) announced on Thursday that it had established a blockchain/ICO working group to review the legal framework and to identify any need for action alongside the Federal Office...

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Gold Bullion May Have Room to Run As Chinese New Year Looms

2018-01-20

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2018-01-20

Gold Spot, Oct 2017 - Jan 2018
Gold bullion tends to rise January and February before Chinese New Year (see table). Gold is nearly 8% and $100 higher since Fed raised rates one month ago. Options traders are bullish and suggest gold has room to run (see chart). Nervous in short term, positive in medium term – gold at $1,500 in 2018.

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The Blatant Dishonesty of the ‘Boom’

2018-01-20

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2018-01-20

China Fixed Asset Investment, June 2013 - Dec 2017
Why do humans tend to behave in herds? It’s a fundamental question that only recently have researchers been able to better understand. On the one hand, it doesn’t take an advanced degree in some neurological science to see the basis behind it; survival for our ancestors often meant getting along with the crowd. There are times when that very trait applies still.

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U.S. Unemployment: The Dissonance Book

2018-01-20

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2018-01-20

US Federal Reserve, Jan 2010 - 2018
I’ve found the word “dissonance” has become more common in regular usage beyond just my own. Whether that’s a function of my limited observational capacities or something more meaningful than personal bias isn’t at all clear. Still, the word does seem to fit in economic terms more and more as we carry on uncorrected by meaningful context.

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Punch-Drunk Investors & Extinct Bears, Part 2

2018-01-20

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2018-01-20

Rydex Bull/Bear Asset Ratio and Total Bear Assets, 2003 - 2018
For many years we have heard that the poor polar bears were in danger of dying out due to global warming. A fake photograph of one of the magnificent creatures drifting aimlessly in the ocean on a break-away ice floe was reproduced thousands of times all over the internet. In the meantime it has turned out that polar bears are doing so well, they are considered a quite dangerous plague in some regions in Alaska.

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La BNS vend des euros et achète des dollars

2018-01-19

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2018-01-19

SNB Logo
Entre la fin de l’année 2016 et la fin du 3ème trimestre 2017 (chiffres disponibles), les dirigeants de la BNS ont accru le volume des devises détenues par l’établissement de 65 milliards de francs environ. En 9 mois seulemen. Selon eux, ces investissements se justifient par le franc suisse qui serait trop fort face à l’euro. Et pour l’affaiblir, il faut acheter de l’euro, mécanisme qui expliquerait la croissance du bilan.

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Swiss Producer and Import Price Index in December 2017: +1.8 YoY, +0.2 MoM

2018-01-19

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2018-01-19

Switzerland Producer Price Index (PPI) YoY, December 2017
The Producer and Import Price Index rose in December 2017 by 0.2% compared with the previous month, reaching 101.9 points (December 2015=100). Compared with December 2016, the price level of the whole range of domestic and imported products rose by 1.8%. The average annualised inflation rate in 2017 was 0.9%. These are some of the findings from the Federal Statistical Office (FSO).

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Swiss rents could fall 10%, says UBS

2018-01-19

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2018-01-19

Building
In a report published today entitled: rents losing altitude, UBS says asking rents for apartments will probably drop by up to 10% over the next three years. Competition in the rental market is getting even fiercer. By mid-2017, 2.4% of all rental apartments were vacant. This level was last exceeded in 1998, when 2.8% of rental apartments stood empty, says the bank.

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Good or Bad, But Surely Not Transitory

2018-01-19

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2018-01-19

US Consumer Price Index, Dec 1997 - 2017
When Federal Reserve officials first started last year to mention wireless network data plans as a possible explanation for a fifth year of “transitory” factors holding back consumer price inflation, it seemed a bit transparent. One of the reasons for immediately doubting their sincerity was the history of that particular piece of the CPI (or PCE Deflator).

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Is Un-Humming A Word? It Might Need To Become One

2018-01-19

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2018-01-19

U.S. Industrial Production, Jan 1968 - 2018
Industrial Production in the US was up 3.6% year-over-year in December 2017. That’s the best for American industry since November 2014 when annual IP growth was 3.7%. That’s ultimately the problem, though, given all that has happened this year. In other words, despite a clear boost the past few months from storm effects, as well as huge contributions from the mining (crude oil) sector, American production at its best can only manage to reflect...

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China: FX reserves rise again

2018-01-18

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2018-01-18

According to the Chinese State Administration of Foreign Exchange (SAFE), China’s FX reserves amounted to USD3.14 trillion at end - December 2017, up USD20.7 billion from the previous month. This marks the 11th consecutive monthly increase in Chinese FX reserves since February 2017.

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FX Daily, January 18: Currencies Consolidate After Chop Fest

2018-01-18

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2018-01-18

The US dollar rallied in the North American afternoon yesterday and the timing coincided with the release of the Fed's Beige Book that saw several districts report wage and price pressures. The US 10-year yield moved toward toward 2.60%, and helped by speculation that as US companies repatriate earnings kept abroad that they may have to liquidate the investments, some of which are thought to be in Treasuries.

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China and US Treasuries

2018-01-18

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2018-01-18

The US Treasury market was consolidating yesterday's 7.5 basis point jump in 10-year yields when Bloomberg's headline hit. The claim was that Chinese officials are "wary of Treasuries". Yields rose quickly to test 2.60% and the dollar moved lower. It is difficult to determine the significance of the claim as the Bloomberg story does not quote anyone.

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Switzerland stays attractive for companies and top earners

2018-01-18

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2018-01-18

Switzerland remains an attractive tax destination for both companies and top earners in 2017, according to a survey of major global business locations published on Wednesday. But it warned planned US tax reform will increase competition.

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