Tag Archive: newslettersent

Switzerland’s Economic Recovery gains momentum

Economic forecasts by the Federal Government’s Expert Group – Winter 2017/2018* The Federal Government’s Expert Group expects the Swiss economy to make a speedy recovery over the next few quarters. While only moderate GDP growth of 1.0% is anticipated in 2017 due to a weak first half of the year, the forecast for GDP growth in 2018 is strong at 2.3% in the course of the global economic upturn.

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Great Graphic: Sterling Toys with Three-Year Downtrend Line

Sterling is the second major currency this year after the euro (and its shadow the Danish krone). The downtrend line from mid-2014 is fraying. Is this the breakout?

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Weekly Technical Analysis: 18/12/2017 – USD/CHF, USD/JPY, EUR/USD, GBP/USD, EUR/CHF

The USDCHF pair traded with clear negativity yesterday to break 0.9892 level and settles below it, which stops the recently suggested positive scenario and put the price within the correctional bearish track again, noting that there is a bearish pattern that its signs appear on the chart, which means that breaking its neckline at 0.9840 will extend the pair's losses to surpass 0.9800 and reach 0.9730 as a next station.

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Switzerland Is Well-Prepared For Civilizational Collapse

More than any other country, Switzerland’s ethos is centered around preparing for civilizational collapse. All around Switzerland, for example, one can find thousands of water fountains fed by natural springs. Zurich is famous for its 1200 fountains, some of them quite beautiful and ornate, but it’s the multiple small, simple fountains in every Swiss village that really tell the story. Elegant, yes, but if and when central water systems are...

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National Precious Metals Company Announces Sound Money Scholarship Winners

December 13, 2017 (Eagle, Idaho) -- A national precious metals dealer has selected four outstanding students to receive tuition assistance from America’s first gold-backed scholarship fund. Beginning last year, Money Metals Exchange, a national precious metals dealer recently ranked “Best in the USA,” teamed up with the Sound Money Defense League and well known members of academia and freedom-minded non-profits to offer the first gold-backed...

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Direct Investments in 2016

In 2016, companies domiciled in Switzerland invested CHF 71 billion abroad. Swiss direct investment abroad thus fell short of the CHF 90 billion recorded in 2015, due primarily to lower investment activity by finance and holding companies. All other industry categories combined actually exceeded the level of the previous year with investment abroad of CHF 62 billion (2015: CHF 46 billion). Of this total, CHF 29 billion was accounted for by...

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Swiss Perfectionism

In Der Bund, Adrian Sulc comments on the Swiss National Bank’s perfectionism. Keine andere Schweizer Organisation kommuniziert so professionell wie die SNB, keine andere Organisation kann so gut dichthalten. Perfectionism is costly. Der Personalbestand ist in den letzten fünf Jahren um 18 Prozent auf 795 Vollzeitstellen gestiegen. … Die durchschnittlichen Lohnkosten pro Mitarbeiter betragen mittlerweile 155 000 Franken pro Jahr. Dies weil gemäss...

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FX Daily, December 18: Trade Tensions with China Set to Escalate

The two main legislative initiatives in the US this year, the repeal of the Affordable Care Act and the tax changes, are not particularly popular. However, the next items on the agenda appear to enjoy broader support. The infrastructure initiative is likely to be unveiled as early as next month. Before that, the US is poised to ratchet up the tension on China.

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FX Weekly Preview: Policy Mix Underlines Positive Fundamental Backdrop for the Dollar

The prospects that the Republican-controlled legislative branch would find a compromise to tax cuts were enhanced when a few senators appeared to capitulate without much to show for it may have helped lift US stocks and dollar ahead of the weekend.

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Emerging Market Preview: Week Ahead

EM FX was mixed last week, with political optimism driving the big winners ZAR and CLP. We remain cautious, as the Fed has signaled its intent to continue tightening in 2018.

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UBS chairman warns of ‘bitcoin bubble’

Axel Weber, the board chairman of big bank UBS, has warned of a possible Bitcoin currency crash. With increasing numbers of small investors jumping on the cryptocurrency bandwagon, it is time for regulators to intervene, he says. Bitcoin has surged from $1,000 (CHF9,900) at the start of the year to above $16,000.

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Slow wage growth to keep Fed on prudent normalisation track

The November employment report showed another ‘Goldilocks’ set of conditions for investors: employment growth remained firm, especially in cyclical sectors like manufacturing and construction. At the same time, wage growth stayed soft – which means the Federal Reserve is unlikely to shift its current prudent communication on interest -rate hikes (although it is still very likely to hike 25bps on 13 December).

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ECB preview: close to target…by 2020

The ECB’s meeting on 14 December would be a non-event if it were not for two specific points to make clear before the Christmas break – the staff forecasts for inflation, and the not-so-constructive ambiguity on QE horizon. We expect no major surprise from the new staff projections, reflecting the ECB’s cautiously upbeat tone.

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Poverty risk high for Swiss pensioners despite high spending

A recent OECD study, which looks at retirement, shows the relatively large amount spent on pensioners in Switzerland. Switzerland consumes 11% of its GDP on retirees, compared to 9% across OECD nations. Despite this high spending, the risk of poverty is higher in Switzerland than across the OECD. According to the organisation, 19% of those over 64 in Switzerland are at risk of poverty, compared to an OECD average of 13%.

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Buy Gold, Silver Time After Speculators Reduce Longs and Banks Reduce Shorts

Gold and silver COT suggests bottoming and price rally coming. Speculators cut way back on long positions and added to short bets. Commercials/banks significantly reduced short positions. Commercial net short position saw biggest one-week decline in COMEX history. ‘Big 4’ commercial traders decreased their short positions by 28,800 contracts. Seasonally, January is generally a good month to own gold (see table). "If history is still reliable,...

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Could Central Banks Dump Gold in Favor of Bitcoin?

All of which brings us to the "crazy" idea of backing fiat currencies with cryptocurrencies, an idea I first floated back in 2013, long before the current crypto-craze emerged. Exhibit One: here's your typical central bank, creating trillions of units of currency every year, backed by nothing but trust in the authority of the government, created at the whim of a handful of people in a room and distributed to their cronies, or at the behest of their...

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The Rug Yank Phase of Fed Policy

The political differences of today’s two leading parties are not over ultimate questions of principle. Rather, they are over opposing answers to the question of how a goal can be achieved with the least sacrifice. For lawmakers, the goal is to promise the populace something for nothing, while pretending to make good on it.

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Fed rate unlikely to move much above 2 percent next year

The Federal Reserve is probably looking back at 2017 with satisfaction. After on the rate rise expected on 13 December, it will have pushed through the three rate hikes it signalled earlier in the year. For once, it has not under-delivered. Meanwhile, the gradual, ‘passive’ decline in the Fed’s balance sheet has been mostly ignored by markets. In fact, broader financial conditions have eased this year despite the Fed’s monetary tightening....

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Uber to stop offering budget service in Basel

The ride-sharing firm Uber has announced it will abandon its UberPop service in the city of Basel from June 1, 2018, as it is not profitable enough. UberPop has already been discontinued in Zurich and Lausanne. According to the company, the decision was taken due to feedback from its partners, who wanted to earn more money through the more expensive UberX service. Economic success was not possible through its cheapest service UberPop, the company...

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