Tag Archive: newslettersent

The Gold Situation

2016-07-05

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2016-07-05

A Growing Bullish Chorus – With Somewhat Muted Enthusiasm A few days ago a well-known mainstream investment house (which shall remain nameless) informed the world that it now expects the gold price to reach “$1,500 by early 2017”.

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Tourism accommodation statistics in May 2016: Increase in overnight stays during May 2016

2016-07-05

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2016-07-05

The Swiss hotel industry registered 2.7 million overnight stays in May 2016, which corresponds to a growth of 1.3% (+35,000 overnight stays) compared with May 2015. Domestic visitors recorded 1.1 million overnight stays, representing an increase of 1.9% (+21,000). Foreign demand registered 1.5 million overnight stays, i.e. an increase of 0.9% (+15,000). These are provisional results from the Federal Statistical Office (FSO).

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Silver – OMG!

2016-07-05

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2016-07-05

Keith Weiner's weekly look on Gold. Gold and silver prices, Gold-Silver Price Ratio, Gold basis and co-basis and the dollar price, Silver basis and co-basis and the dollar price.

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Housing Affordability – A Dose of Reality

2016-07-05

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2016-07-05

First, a few quick words on Brexit. Being the always positive and optimistic person that I am (big grin), I see one very positive outcome of Brexit – it is a revolution without bloodshed. For once, I’m not digressing. Brexit has a lot of parallels with housing affordability in the US.

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SNB intervenes for 6.3 billion francs in one week, total 10bn Brexit intervention

2016-07-05

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2016-07-05

SNB intervenes for 6.3 bil francs in the week ending last Friday. Once again a record high since January 2015. The SNB raised the intervention level to 1.0850. Apparently conversion of GBP->CHF flows into GBP-> EUR flows – via EUR/CHF purchases. Speculators: are long CHF 10K contracts against USD versus 6.3K last week.

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(1.3.) Let’s improve the way we report FX rates

This post is motivated by recent headlines suggesting that the Chinese yuan has depreciated in recent days. Here's an example: China's yuan weakens to 5-1/2 low as c.bank tolerates depreciation. This headline is completely inaccurate - the Chinese yuan has been appreciating in recent days. So that's one problem I'd like to fix.

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Brexit: BoE Governor Not Optimistic

2016-07-05

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2016-07-05

Stateside, this is a holiday shortened trading week, one that will be dominated by two fundamental events - Wednesday's FOMC minutes and Friday's non-farm payroll (NFP) report for June. With no surprises expected in the minutes, both dealers and investors have very much priced out any possibility of a U.S rate hike occurring within the next 18-months. In respect to the jobs report, is it possible that the U.S can print two disappointing numbers...

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ETF Securities Reports Biggest One-Day Gold Inflow Since Financial Crisis

2016-07-04

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2016-07-04

It never ceases to amaze how vastly different the investment styles of gold paper vs physical traders are: while we have documented previously how the latter tend to buy progressively more the lower the price (as traditional "buy low, buy more lower" investing would suggest), "investors" in gold paper-derivatives such as ETFs and ETPs are quite the opposite: in fact, they rarely buy until someone else is buying and generating momentum.

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FX Daily, July 04: Four Things that Happened on the Anniversary of the Original Brexit

2016-07-04

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2016-07-04

Inflation expectations fall in Japan. UK construction PMI fell sharply before Brexit. The Australian dollar recovers from the dip as investors await more results. It is not clear that Brexit has sparked a wave of nationalism or anti-EU sentiment.

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Emerging Markets: Preview for the Week Ahead

2016-07-04

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2016-07-04

EM and risk recovered nicely from the Brexit turmoil last week. Yet we think markets are getting too carried away with the "low rates forever" theme and are likely underestimating the capability of the Fed to tighten before 2018. This Friday, the June jobs data could spark a shift in sentiment with a strong reading. Consensus is currently 175k jobs created, up from 38k in May.

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FX Weekly Preview: If No Article 50 Soon, What are the Fundamental Drivers?

2016-07-03

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2016-07-03

Impact of Brexit will take some time to be seen, but the U.K. is already losing influence. U.S. employment data is not sufficient to get the Fed to hike this month. Pressure continues to build on the BOJ to act.

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Swiss Retail Sales -2.3 percent nominal (YoY) and -1.6 percent real (YoY)

2016-07-03

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2016-07-03

Turnover in the retail sector fell by 2.3% in nominal terms in May 2016 compared with the previous year. This decline has been ongoing since January 2015. Seasonally adjusted, nominal turnover fell by 0.1% compared with the previous month. These are provisional findings from the Federal Statistical Office (FSO).

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Swiss Social Security Accounts 2014: Social security expenditure accounted for 24.5percent of GDP

2016-07-03

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2016-07-03

In 2014 expenditure on social benefits from the Swiss social security system amounted to CHF 157 billion. This corresponds to a 24.5% share of the gross domestic product (GDP).

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Weekly speculative Positions: Bulls and Bears Saw Speculative Opportunity in Euros

2016-07-02

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2016-07-02

In the sessions before and after the UK referendum speculators in the currency futures did three things. First, they generally reduced exposure. This means gross longs and short positions were reduced. CHF long positions increased to 10K Speculators were divided about what to do with the euro.

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Swiss Bond Yields all Negative up to 30 years: Greatest Bubble in Financial History

2016-07-02

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2016-07-02

yield curve Switzerland
Graham Summers says that central banks have lost control and investors are crazy. They pay the Swiss government for the right to own their bonds. One point is missing: Swiss rates are "more negative than others", because investors expect a slow appreciation of the Swiss franc.

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Mooning the Elite

2016-07-02

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2016-07-02

Dow up 269 points. Was that all there was? Is the “Brexit” scare over? We don’t know… but we’re going to take a pause today. Instead of trying to connect the new dots, we’re going to take a look at the old dots we’ve already strung together

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FX Weekly Review: June 27 – July 01: Swiss Franc Strength Reversed

2016-07-02

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2016-07-02

Week after Brexit.: The Swiss franc (-0.3%) and the yen (-0.5%) were the worst performers, as so-called safe haven buying was reversed. But the Swiss Franc index is still stronger in the last month than the dollar index.

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If the UK Economy Tanks, Don’t Blame Brexit

2016-07-01

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2016-07-01

If the process of wealth generation is currently in good shape then Britain’s exit from the EU shouldn’t have any negative effect on real economic growth. This, however, might not be the case. It is likely that the reckless monetary policy of central banks in the UK and the eurozone has inflicted a severe damage to the process of real wealth formation.

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When the Deep State Controls All Wealth

2016-07-01

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2016-07-01

Helicopter money
The feds got out the knife in 1971. They changed the money system itself. They severed the link between gold and the dollar – and between value and price. It was so subtle almost no one objected… and so clever almost no one saw what it really meant. It took us more than 40 years to figure it out.

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Emerging Markets: What has Changed

2016-07-01

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2016-07-01

Indonesia’s parliament approved a tax amnesty bill. Korea announced KRW20 trln ($17 bln) in fiscal stimulus. Czech President Zeman said a referendum on EU and NATO membership should be held Russia ended its tourism ban to Turkey. Brazil’s central bank is sending hawkish signals

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