Tag Archive: newslettersent

Beyond Income Inequality

2016-12-03

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2016-12-03

US Household Wealth
Judging by the mainstream media, the most pressing problems facing capitalism are 1) income inequality, the basis of Thomas Piketty’s bestseller Capital in the Twenty First Century, and 2) the failure of laissez-faire markets to regulate their excesses, a common critique encapsulated by Paul Craig Roberts’ recent book and 2) the failure of laissez-faire markets to regulate their excesses, a common critique encapsulated by Paul Craig Roberts’ recent...

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Attaining Self-Destruct Velocity

2016-12-03

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2016-12-03

Jump
Some Monday mornings are better than others. Others are worse than some. For one Amazon employee, this past Monday morning was particularly bad. No doubt, the poor fellow would have been better off he’d called in sick to work. Such a simple decision would have saved him from extreme agony. But, unfortunately, he showed up at Amazon’s Seattle headquarters and put on a public and painful display of madness.

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What Would Make This Dollar Bull Nervous

2016-12-03

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2016-12-03

US Dollar Currency Index, December 02
USD had a large rally in November. We had been looking for a short and shallow pullback. Here are thoughts about what would signal an outright correction.

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FX Daily, December 02: Is it About US Jobs Today?

2016-12-02

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2016-12-02

FX Performance, December 02 2016 Movers and Shakers
The capital markets are finishing the week amid speculation that the driving forces of the past three weeks are ebbing. Global equities and the dollar may be snapping three-week advances. The issue is whether it is a consolidation or trend change. The former is a more prudent assumption until proven otherwise. As a rough and ready signal, the 100.60 level in the Dollar Index, which corresponds to the lows November 22 and November 28 is reasonable.

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Mixed Jobs Report, but Unlikely to Deter Expectations for Fed Hike

2016-12-02

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2016-12-02

The US dollar has slipped lower in response to the jobs data, but quickly recovered. The details are mixed, but is unlikely to change views on the outlook for Fed policy. The headline job creation was in line with expectations at 178k. Job growth of the back two months were shaved by 2k, concentrated in October. The unemployment rate dropped to 4.6%, the lowest since 2007.

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Swiss stock market awaits result of Italian referendum

2016-12-02

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2016-12-02

SMI vs. MSCI World Week, December 02
Investors appear to be staying on the sidelines this week ahead of the weekend’s Italian referendum. Swiss stocks are set to finish the week lower, underperforming global equities as food giant Nestle and pharmaceutical heavyweights Roche and Novartis drag the index down. It’s been a volatile trading week across financial markets. Oil prices jumped almost 9% on Wednesday after OPEC members finally agreed a deal to cut production while upbeat US...

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Swiss Q3 GDP: +0.0 percent QoQ, +1.3 percent YoY

2016-12-02

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2016-12-02

Switzerland Gross Domestic Product (GDP) YoY, September - December 2016
Switzerland's real gross domestic product (GDP) has remained almost unchanged in the 3rd quarter of 2016 (+0.0%). Consumption was nearly stagnated, while net exports had a decline. But investments increased by 0.5% on the quarter.

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Cool Video: Bloomberg TV-Italy and Austria this Weekend

2016-12-02

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2016-12-02

Marc Chandler
I was on Bloomberg Television with Joe Wisenthal this afternoon. I explain what I have been suggesting for the past couple of weeks, namely that the Austrian presidential election this weekend is the third point in the populist-nationalist wave, not Italy.

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FX Daily, December 01: Dollar is on the Defensive, though Yields Rise

2016-12-01

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2016-12-01

FX Performance, December 01 2016 Movers and Shakers
The US dollar is trading heavily against most of the major currencies, but the general tone appears consolidative in nature. Despite a disappointing UK manufacturing PMI (53.4, a four-month low), sterling is near a three-week high above $1.2600.

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Six Narratives on the Ascendancy of Trump

2016-12-01

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2016-12-01

Grorss Domestic Income
A remarkably diverse array of "explanations" of Donald Trump's presidential election victory have been aired, representing both the conventional political spectrum and well beyond.

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Brexit Minister Sends Sterling Higher

2016-12-01

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2016-12-01

brexit
UK could pay for single market access. UK's position still seems fluid. The Supreme Court will hear the government's appeal next week.

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Swiss Retail Sales -0.9 percent nominal (YoY) and 1.3 percent real (YoY)

2016-12-01

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2016-12-01

Switzerland Retail Sales YoY, November 2016
Turnover in the retail sector fell by 0.9% in nominal terms in October 2016 compared with the previous year. This decline has been ongoing since January 2015. Seasonally adjusted, nominal turnover rose by 1.3% compared with the previous month. These are provisional findings from the Federal Statistical Office (FSO).

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Austrian Presidential Election is Important even if Overshadowed by Italy’s Referendum

2016-11-30

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2016-11-30

Austria
Italy's referendum defeat is not simply a victory for populist-nationalist forces. Freedom Party victory in Austria is a victory for said forces. Even if Hofer wins, there are sufficient checks that make it difficult to hold EU or EMU referendum.

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Switzerland UBS Consumption Indicator October: Retailers are hoping for good Christmas business

2016-11-30

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2016-11-30

Switzerland Private Consumption and UBS Consumption Indicator, October 2016
In October, the UBS consumption indicator rose from 1.47 to 1.49 points. Positive developments in the automobile market and robust domestic tourism continue to support private consumption. However, the slump in the retail sector prevented a stronger rise of the indicator.

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FX Daily, November 30: Renewed OPEC Hopes and Month End Featured

2016-11-30

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2016-11-30

FX Performance, November 30 2016 Movers and Shakers
Rates for buying Swiss Francs dollars remain incredibly subdued post Brexit but there has been a general improvement over the last month. Rates for the moment appear to have found support over 1.24 for GBP CHF and this has largely come about following the Trump US presidential election victory. Despite a leaked government document titled Have cake and eat it, the markets and sterling were largely unphased.

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Bernanke Suggests How to Use the Dot Plots

2016-11-30

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2016-11-30

Bernanke
The dot plots are not FOMC commitments or an aggregate view of the FOMC. They are a collection of individual economic forecasts based on the most likely scenario and their view of appropriate policy. The SEP is useful for understanding how Fed officials view the long-term economic parameters, which appears to explain the downward shift in the long-term equilibrium rate for Fed funds.

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Fidel Castro and the American Empire

2016-11-30

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2016-11-30

Fidel Castro
The death of the brutal Cuban Communist dictator Fidel Castro closes the door, in some respect, on another disastrous page in US foreign policy history. For all the denunciations and criticism of Castro from conservative elements and exiled Cubans, his despotic rule was the outcome of decades of American imperialism which began with President William McKinley’s infamous decision to wage war on hapless Spain in 1898.

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Switzerland tops talent table despite high cost of living

2016-11-30

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2016-11-30

Swiss dog
Switzerland retains its number one spot in IMD‘s most recent 2016 World Talent Report. Unlike the other 60 nations in the study, which have seen their performance gyrate, a plot of Switzerland’s rank over the last ten years is a perfectly straight line. First ten years in a row.

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Some Thoughts on Q3 US GDP

2016-11-30

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2016-11-30

monkey-thinking
US Q3 was revised higher mostly due to consumption. Business investment was a drag. Profits rose to snap a five-quarter slide.

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Employment barometer in 3rd quarter 2016: Employment growth slows

2016-11-30

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2016-11-30

totalbesch
In the 3rd quarter 2016, total employment (number of jobs) rose by 0.3% in comparison with the same quarter a year earlier (-0.1% compared with the previous quarter). In full-time equivalents, employment in the same period remained unchanged. The Swiss economy counted 4,000 more vacancies than in the corresponding quarter of the previous year (+8.1%). The other indicators also showed positive growth. These are the findings from the Federal...

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