Tag Archive: newsletter
The Distortions of Doom Part 2: The Fatal Flaws of Reserve Currencies
The way forward is to replace the entire system of reserve currencies with a transparent free-for-all of all kinds of currencies. Over the years, I've endeavored to illuminate the arcane dynamics of global currencies by discussing Triffin's Paradox, which explains the conflicting dual roles of national currencies that also act as global reserve currencies, i.e. currencies that other nations use for global payments, loans and foreign exchange...
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Immobilier suisse, la réalité du cumul de risques. Olivier Crottaz
Avant-propos: Voici un argumentaire très intéressant que nous livre Olivier Crottaz.
Les caisses de pension et autres fonds d’investissement venus de l’étranger se sont engouffrées dans l’autoroute de l’industrie immobilière, construite par la BNS.
Du sur mesure donc qui pour l’instant n’a pas tant profité aux Suisses.
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German September PMIs surprisingly weak
Recent German soft and hard data in the manufacturing sector has been surprisingly weak. Data released today showed that the final manufacturing PMI fell to 53.7 in September, from 55.9 in August. Factory orders rose by 2.0% month-on-month (m-o-m) in August, having contracted for six out of the seven previous months.
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Swiss-US tax data transfer method ‘violates law’
The Swiss Data Protection Commissioner has issued a legal complaint against the Finance Ministry for sending the names of bank employees, lawyers, accountants and other third parties to the United States to assist with tax evasion investigations.
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FX Daily, October 09: A (Short) Reprieve For China while the Dollar Stays Firm
The small gains in China's Shanghai Composite and the yuan is helping sentiment today. News that Italy's budget watchdog may reject the government's fiscal plans has helped stabilize Italian assets initially, but renewed pressure quickly materialized. Most Asian equities retreated while Europe's Dow Jones Stoxx 600 is struggling to snap a three-day slide. US shares are trading heavily in Europe.
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Cool Video: Clip from CNBC Squawk Box
The combination of divergence and the US policy mix is underpinning the dollar and I was invited to share my views on CNBC's Squawk Box earlier today. It dovetailed nicely Matthew Diczok (from Merrill Lynch) views on Fed policy and US interest rates.
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How Dangerous is the Month of October?
A Month with a Bad Reputation. A certain degree of nervousness tends to suffuse global financial markets when the month of October approaches. The memories of sharp slumps that happened in this month in the past – often wiping out the profits of an entire year in a single day – are apt to induce fear. However, if one disregards outliers such as 1987 or 2008, October generally delivers an acceptable performance.
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FX Daily, October 08: China and European Woes Weigh on Equities but Buoy the Dollar
Overview: The markets are having a rough adjustment to the return of the Chinese markets are the week-long holiday. The cut in the required reserves failed to lift investor sentiment. The Shanghai and Shenzhen Composites fell almost 4%, and the yuan slid nearly 0.8%. It is an unusually large decline for the closely managed currency. The offshore yuan fell by a little more than 0.5%.
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Rückenwind für die SNB
Die Nationalbank hat die Schweizer Zahlungsbilanz für das zweite Quartal veröffentlicht. Damit bietet sich erstmals die Gelegenheit, nachzuprüfen, ob die viel zitierten Europaängste Fluchtkapital ins Land gespült haben. Zur Erinnerung: Im März wurde in Italien ein neues Parlament gewählt, die den beiden Europagegnern und Anti-Establishment-Formationen Movimento 5 Stelle und Lega eine Mehrheit bescherten.
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Digitization ‘to cost one million jobs’ in Switzerland
The growing trend of digitization in the economy will render a million Swiss jobs redundant in the next 12 years, according to a new study. Some 800,000 jobs will be clawed back by new IT openings, but much of the workforce will need to be re-trained, warns consultancy firm McKinsey. Automation will mainly take the place of manual labour, office and retail workers, says the NZZ am Sonntag newspaper, which has seen an advance copy of the McKinsey...
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FX Weekly Preview: Has an Inflection Point been Reached for Investors?
Interest rates, led by the US, have accelerated to the upside. With price pressures generally rising and oil prices at four-year highs, it is understandable. Market participants need to see the breakout that has lifted US 10-year yields to their highest level in seven years is confirmed in subsequent price action.
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The Global Distortions of Doom Part 1: Hyper-Indebted Zombie Corporations
The defaults and currency crises in the periphery will then move into the core. It's funny how unintended consequences so rarely turn out to be good. The intended consequences of central banks' unprecedented tsunami of stimulus (quantitative easing, super-low interest rates and easy credit / abundant liquidity) over the past decade were: 1.
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US Stocks and Bonds Get Clocked in Tandem
At the time of writing, the stock market is recovering from a fairly steep (by recent standards) intraday sell-off. We have no idea where it will close, but we would argue that even a recovery into the close won’t alter the status of today’s action – it is a typical warning shot. Here is what makes the sell-off unique:
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Swiss take the Train more often, and further, than European Neighbours
The latest Europe-wide figures confirm Switzerland’s reputation as a country of trains, with average trips and kilometres covered per habitant far higher than elsewhere. Some 72 trips and 2,463 kilometres: this was the average train time for each Swiss resident in 2016, according to Eurostat figures reported Tuesday by Litraexternal link, the Swiss information service for public transport.
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Switzerland, Model of Freedom & Wealth Moving East – Interviews with Claudio Grass
Last month our friend Claudio Grass, roving Mises Institute Ambassador and a Switzerland-based investment advisor specializing in precious metals, was interviewed by Sarah Westall for her Business Game Changers channel.
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Great Graphic: The Dollar’s Role
This Great Graphic comes from Peter Coy and team's article in Business Week. It succinctly shows three metrics for the internationalization of domestic currencies: global payments, international bonds, and foreign exchange reserves. It does not strike me as surprising, and the role of the euro as a payments currency reflects its role in intra-European trade.
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Perth Mint’s Gold and Silver Bullion Coin Sales Soar In September
Sales of gold products by the Perth Mint surged in September to their highest since January 2017, while silver sales more than doubled from August to mark an over two-year peak, boosted by lower bullion prices, the mint said on Wednesday.
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FX Daily, October 05: US Jobs Data will Test Dollar Bulls and Bond Bears
The US dollar is firmer against most of the major and emerging market currencies. The yen and sterling are resisting the pressure, while the South African rand and Russian rouble are paring some of this week's declines. US equity losses yesterday weighed on Asian and European trading today.
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