Tag Archive: newsletter

Referenzzins – SNB-Direktorin Maechler drängt auf rasche Saron-Umstellung

2019-12-13

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2019-12-13

Die Schweizerische Nationalbank hat vor einem halben Jahr den SNB-Leitzins eingeführt, weil der zuvor verwendete Referenzzins Libor ein Ablaufdatum hat. Seither haben die Währungshüter den Saron im Fokus. Dieser soll von den Marktteilnehmern nun konsequenter verwendet werden.

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Geldpolitik – Trotz steigender Kritik: Schweizerische Nationalbank lässt Negativzins unverändert

2019-12-13

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2019-12-13

Die Schweizerische Nationalbank (SNB) belässt den Leitzins auf dem seit fast fünf Jahren geltenden Rekordtief von minus 0,75 Prozent. Das gab die SNB am Donnerstag an ihrer vierteljährlich stattfindenden geldpolitschen Lagebeurteilung bekannt.

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Can Swiss business and human rights co-exist?

2019-12-13

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2019-12-13

Switzerland performs a delicate dance when it comes to promoting business interests, maintaining neutrality and defending human rights. Daniel Warner looks at recent examples and the stakes at play. Doing business with other countries and promoting human rights can and do go hand in hand, Swiss State Secretary for Foreign Affairs Pascale Baeriswyl recently told swissinfo.ch.

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The FOMC Channels China’s Xi As To Japan Going Global

2019-12-13

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2019-12-13

Economic Projections FOMC, 2013-2016
The massive dollar eruption in the middle of 2014 altered everything. We’ve talked quite a lot about what Euro$ #3 did to China; it sent that economy into a dive from which it wouldn’t escape. And in doing so convinced the Chinese leadership to give growth one more try before changing the game entirely once stimulus inevitably failed.

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Why Central Banks Aren’t Really Setting Interest Rates

2019-12-13

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2019-12-13

Mainstream thinking considers the central bank a key factor in the determination of interest rates. By setting short-term interest rates, the central bank, it is argued, can influence the entire interest rate structure by creating expectations about the future course of its interest rate policy.

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FX Daily, December 12: Enguard Lagarde

2019-12-12

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2019-12-12

With the FOMC meeting delivered no surprises, attention turns to the ECB meeting as the UK go to the polls. Lagarde will hold her first press conference as ECB president today, and it will naturally command attention. Equities are advancing today, and tech appears to be leading the way. In Asia Pacific, Taiwan and South Korea rallied more than 1%, while the Hang Seng gapped higher to almost its best level in three weeks.

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Monetary policy assessment of 12 December 2019

2019-12-12

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2019-12-12

Conditional Inflation Forecast, December 2019
The Swiss National Bank is keeping the SNB policy rate and interest on sight deposits at the SNB at −0.75%. It remains willing to intervene in the foreign exchange market as necessary, while taking the overall currency situation into consideration. The expansionary monetary policy continues to be necessary given the inflation outlook in Switzerland.

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Swiss Producer and Import Price Index in November 2019: -2.5 percent YoY, -0.4 percent MoM

2019-12-12

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2019-12-12

Switzerland Producer Price Index (PPI) YoY, November 2019
12.12.2019 - The Producer and Import Price Index fell in November 2019 by 0.4% compared with the previous month, reaching 100.5 points (December 2015 = 100). This decline was due in particular to lower prices for chemical and pharmaceutical products. Compared with November 2018, the price level of the whole range of domestic and imported products fell by 2.5%.

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Money for nothing – Swiss government gets paid to borrow

2019-12-12

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2019-12-12

Imagine borrowing CHF 105,500 but only having to repay CHF 100,000 in 20 years time, including interest. You’d get an interest free loan plus an extra CHF 5,500 to keep. This is what the Swiss federal government will do on 20 December 2019, except it will borrow CHF 196.6 million by issuing zero interest bonds at a price of 105.5%. The government will generate a CHF 10.25 million windfall.

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Nestlé identifies over 18,000 child labourers in cocoa supply chain

2019-12-12

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2019-12-12

As part of its monitoring programme, Swiss multinational Nestlé has identified 18,283 children performing “unacceptable” tasks at cocoa farms that supply beans to the company. Over half have been rehabilitated following company intervention. In 2012, Nestlé established a Child Labor Monitoring and Remediation System (CLMRS) in partnership with the International Cocoa Initiative (ICI) in the Ivory Coast to identify children at risk of carrying out...

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Why “This Sucker Is Going Down”

2019-12-12

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2019-12-12

Once the contagion starts spreading, loose money won't put the fires out. As the nation's political and economic leaders struggled to contain the 2008 financial meltdown, President George W. Bush famously summed the situation up: "If money doesn't loosen up, this sucker will go down."Eleven years into the loose money recovery, this sucker is finally going down for reasons that have little to do with tight money and everything to do with the...

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If Trade Wars Couldn’t, Might Pig Wars Change Xi’s Mind?

2019-12-12

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2019-12-12

China Price Stability, 1996-2019
Forget about trade wars, or even the eurodollar’s ever-present squeeze on China’s monetary system. For the Communist Chinese government, its first priority has been changed by unforeseen circumstances. At the worst possible time, food prices are skyrocketing. A country’s population will sit still for a great many injustices. From economic decay to corruption and rising authoritarianism, the line between back alley grumbling and open rebellion is...

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Central Banks May Be Driving Us Toward More Waste, More Carbon Emissions

2019-12-12

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2019-12-12

People's Bank of China Balance Sheet
Christine Lagarde, the new president of the European Central Bank (ECB), has added a new green dimension to monetary policymaking. The charming Frenchwoman signaled that the ECB could buy green bonds, possibly as part of the reanimated bond purchase program (a form of QE). This could reduce the financing costs of green investment projects.

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FX Daily, December 11: Sterling Holds Firm Despite Tighter Poll

2019-12-11

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2019-12-11

Overview: The capital markets continue to tread water as investors await this week's key events. The first, the FOMC meeting concludes later today. Tomorrow features the UK election, where the race appears to have tightened, and Lagarde's first ECB meeting at the helm. Global equities continue consolidating the recent gains. Asia Pacific equity markets were mostly higher.

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Bank savers feel sting from negative interest rates

2019-12-11

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2019-12-11

Swiss savers are being made to pay for global demand for the franc. The number of bank customers being charged negative interest rates on their deposits is on the rise – and shows no sign of reversing. The problem for domestic savers stems from the popularity of the Swiss currency. Amid economic uncertainty worldwide and a paucity of return on many investments, people have taken to dumping their assets in the solid franc.

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Swiss seek compromise amid ‘lack of will’ at climate talks

2019-12-11

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2019-12-11

This year, the signal from the scientific community has been loud and clear on climate change: something needs to be done, and soon. But leadership at the United Nations’ annual climate conference appears less clear-cut, and the head of the Swiss delegation is frustrated by hesitation to move ahead.

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Disposable (Employment) Figures

2019-12-11

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2019-12-11

Establishment Survey; Blowout Payrolls, 2014-2019
If last month’s payroll report was declared to be strong at +128k, then what would that make this month’s +266k? Epic? Heroic? The superlatives are flying around today, as you should expect. This Payroll Friday actually fits the times. It wasn’t great, they never really are nowadays (when you adjust for population and participation), but it was a good one nonetheless.

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The destruction of civilization – implications of extreme monetary interventions

2019-12-11

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2019-12-11

When I was asked to write an article about the impact of negative interest rates and negative yielding bonds, I thought this is a chance to look at the topic from a broader perspective. There have been lots of articles speculating about the possible implications and focusing on their impact in the short run, but it’s not very often that an analysis looks a bit further into the future, trying to connect money and its effect on society itself. 

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The BIS Misses An Opportunity To Get Consistent With The Facts

2019-12-11

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2019-12-11

Net lending through repos and federal funds by size group
Much has been made about the repo market since mid-September. Much continues to be made about it. The question is why. It is now near the middle of December and repo looks dicey despite repo operations and a not-QE small-scale asset purchase intended to increase the level of bank reserves. Always the focus on “funds” which may be available. It was John Adams who took on the task of defending several British soldiers on trial for the Boston...

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Gold $1600 In 2020 as Case for Diversifying into Gold ‘as Strong as Ever’ – Goldman

2019-12-11

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2019-12-11

Gold will climb to $1,600 over the next year – Goldman. ◆ Goldman is still forecasting that gold will climb to $1,600 over the next year due to investment demand. ◆ Investors should diversify their long-term bond holdings with gold, citing “fear-driven demand” for the precious metal – Goldman Sachs Group Inc.

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