Tag Archive: newsletter

FX Daily, October 15: Monday Blues

2018-10-15

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2018-10-15

Despite the pre-weekend gains that lifted the S&P 500 above its 200-day moving average, global equities are moving lower today. The main news over the weekend included the US renewing its threat to impose more tariffs on China and Saudi Arabia threatening retaliation for any sanctions relating to the disappearance of the journalist Khashoggi, and the lack of a breakthrough in UK-EU negotiations.

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Swiss Producer and Import Price Index in September 2018: +2.6 percent YoY, -0.2 percent MoM

2018-10-15

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2018-10-15

Switzerland Producer Price Index (PPI) YoY, September 2018
The Producer and Import Price Index fell in September 2018 by 0.2% compared with the previous month, reaching 103.2 points (December 2015 = 100). The decline is due in particular to lower prices for scrap. Compared with September 2017, the price level of the whole range of domestic and imported products rose by 2.6%. These are some of the findings from the Federal Statistical Office (FSO).

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One in three Swiss flights delayed

2018-10-15

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2018-10-15

The Swiss International Airlines is among the worst victims of a shortage of air traffic controllers in Europe. About 34% of all Swiss flights are delayed because of issues with air navigation safety or at the airport, the SonntagsZeitung newspaper reports quoting data from Eurocontrol.

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FX Weekly Preview: Forces of Movement

2018-10-15

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2018-10-15

There are three broad forces of movement in the week ahead: the equity market performance, political developments, and economic data. It was a tumultuous week for equities, and there was not clear or obvious trigger.  With US bond yields and equities trending higher this year, there does not seem to a reason why it ended last week. 

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How Many Households Qualify as Middle Class?

2018-10-15

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2018-10-15

Ownership Society
By the standards of previous generations, the middle class has been stripmined of income, assets and purchasing power. What does it take to be middle class nowadays? Defining the middle class is a parlor game, with most of the punditry referring to income brackets as the defining factor.

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Special Edition: Markets Under Pressure (VIDEO)

2018-10-15

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2018-10-15

What does Alhambra Investments think about the 1300 point drop in the Dow Jones Average this week? Alhambra CEO Joe Calhoun has some thoughts.

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Over 27percent of Swiss workers are stressed

2018-10-14

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2018-10-14

Workplace stress in Switzerland is on the rise, particularly among younger workers – who often show up feeling unwell. The consequences are costly. The “Job Stress Index” – published by Health Promotion Switzerlandexternal link on the eve of World Mental Health Dayexternal link – has found that stress levels at work continue their upward trend.

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Gold’s Best Day In 2 Years Sees 2.5 Percent Gain As Global Stocks Sell Off – This Week’s Golden Nuggets

2018-10-14

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2018-10-14

Gold’s Best Day In 2 Years Sees 2.5 Percent Gain As Global Stocks Sell Off – This Week’s Golden Nuggets. News, Commentary, Charts and Videos You May Have Missed. Here is our Friday digest of the important news, commentary, charts and videos we were informed by this week. Market jitters and volatility have returned this week and the sell-off in US government bonds led to sharp falls on Wall Street centered on the very overvalued tech sector and the...

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Swiss Public Broadcaster to Shed Fewer Jobs than Expected

2018-10-13

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2018-10-13

The Swiss Broadcasting Corporation (SBC) will shed fewer jobs than initially stated as it embarks on a four-year CHF100 million ($100 million) cost-cutting programme. Some 200 jobs are slated to go instead of the 250 announced in June.

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The Gold Standard: Protector of Individual Liberty and Economic Prosperity

2018-10-13

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2018-10-13

A Piece of Paper Alone Cannot Secure Liberty. The idea of a constitution and/or written legislation to secure individual rights so beloved by conservatives and among many libertarians has proven to be a myth. The US Constitution and all those that have been written and ratified in its wake throughout the world have done little to protect individual liberties or keep a check on State largesse.

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FX Daily, October 12: Market Fever is Burning Itself Out Ahead of the Weekend

2018-10-12

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2018-10-12

 Equity markets are stabilizing today as Asian and European markets shrug off the failure to get traction in the US yesterday.   As everything and nothing was behind the dramatic sell-off in recent days, the same could be said about today's recovery.  Most accounts seem to be emphasizing two developments:  a report indicating that despite the talk earlier in the week, there is a recognition by the US Treasury staff that China's actions do not reach...

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Swiss Divorce Rates Continue to Climb

2018-10-12

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2018-10-12

Divorce
By 2017, 40.5% of those married in 1987 were divorced, compared to 33.2% of those married in 1977 and 24.7% of those married in 1967. Divorce in Switzerland starts early. 9.4% of those married in 1987 were divorced after five years, as were 8.1% of those married in 1977 and 4.8% of those who tied the knot in 1967.

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Swiss blockchain industry sees meteoric growth

2018-10-12

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2018-10-12

The booming Swiss blockchain sector continues to grow: over 600 companies and institutions are now located in the ‘Crypto Nation’ and neighbouring Liechtenstein, according to recently-released data. The industry employs around 3,000 people in Switzerland and Liechtenstein, as well as many more abroad, says investment group Crypto Valley Venture Capital.

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FX Daily, October 11: Equity Swoon Takes Spotlight, Pushes Dollar to Backfoot

2018-10-11

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2018-10-11

There is one story today, and that is the sell-off in global equities. Although the narratives put the US at the center, the fact of the matter is that US equities have been among the best performers this year, despite the rise of interest rates and a President that is not above criticizing the central bank.

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Macro Cheat Sheet

2018-10-11

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2018-10-11

clouods
Rising US rates in absolute terms and relative to other countries, coupled with the policy-mix and US tax reform are the main drivers. The market has nearly completely discounted three more Fed hikes by the end of next year, while the Fed has signaled that four hikes may be appropriate.

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IMF raises Swiss economic growth forecast

2018-10-11

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2018-10-11

The Swiss economy is tipped to grow by 3% by the end of this year, according to the International Monetary Fund (IMF). In April, the organisation had forecast Switzerland’s gross domestic product (GDP) to rise by 2.3%.

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Fed Credit and the US Money Supply – The Liquidity Drain Accelerates

2018-10-11

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2018-10-11

Fed credit in 2017 (blue bars) vs. 2018 (red bars)
Federal Reserve Credit Contracts Further. We last wrote in July about the beginning contraction in outstanding Fed credit, repatriation inflows, reverse repos, and commercial and industrial lending growth, and how the interplay between these drivers has affected the growth rate of the true broad US money supply TMS-2 (the details can be seen here: “The Liquidity Drain Becomes Serious” and “A Scramble for Capital”).

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FX Daily, October 10: US Dollar Pullback may Continue in North America

2018-10-10

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2018-10-10

The euro bottomed yesterday near $1.1430 and reached $1.1515 in Asia. Support is seen near $1.1480 and should hold if the euro's upside correction is to continue. There are options struck $1.1500-$1.1510 for nearly 1.4 bln euros that expire today. For the third consecutive session, the dollar found bids a little below JPY113.00. There is a $1 bln JPY113 option that will be cut today.

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Squaring off over the Italian budget

2018-10-10

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2018-10-10

Italy Macro Assumptions
The Italian government’s budget plans set it on a collision course with the European Commission. The road to some kind of agreement is likely to be long and bumpy. The Italian government has confirmed its deficit target at 2.4% of GDP for 2019. This represents significant slippage from a previous budget deficit target of 0.8% in 2019.

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UBS tax fraud trial opens in Paris

2018-10-10

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2018-10-10

A sweeping investigation into UBS bank, accused of tax fraud and money laundering, comes to trial in Paris today. The bank risks a fine of up to €5 billion (CHF5.7 billion). The trial is set to begin on Monday after years of investigations into the Swiss bank’s French activities, as well as aborted negotiations in which authorities made a settlement offer of €1.1 billion.

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