Tag Archive: newsletter

Oil prices and the global economy

2019-09-11

by

2019-09-11

Oil Prices, 2018-2019
Low oil prices are good news for disposable income. But they also reflect the risk of oversupply in a world where growth indicators continue to point down.Events since Trump first threatened increased tariffs in 2017 provide a textbook example of how tariffs are transmitted through the global economy. First, the uncertainty they create hurts sentiment.

Read More »

A Bigger Boat

2019-09-11

by

2019-09-11

Europe Industrial Production, 2013-2019
For every action there is a reaction. Not only is that Sir Isaac Newton’s third law, it’s also a statement about human nature. Unlike physics where causes and effects are near simultaneous, there is a time component to how we interact. In official capacities, even more so.

Read More »

EUR/CHF technical analysis: Break out or fake out?

2019-09-11

by

2019-09-11

Daily EUR/CHF, September 11
The cross needs to hold above the 1.0970s and beyond the 25th July swing lows. To the downside, a break back below the prior descending resistance will spell bad news for the bulls. EUR/CHF has been running higher of late, despite the onset of the European Central Bank - a possible buy the rumour sell the fact scenario as the less committed euro shorts are squeezed.

Read More »

Swiss National Bank – Between a rock and a hard place

2019-09-10

by

2019-09-10

Swiss Quarterly GDP Growth, 2011-2019
We expect the Swiss National Bank to stay on hold at its next policy meeting, but a lot will depend on ECB and Fed meetings.Uncertainties and global slowdown are weighing on business investment in Switzerland, while household consumption growth has been slowing. Swiss GDP rose by 0.3% q-o-q in Q2 (down from 0.4% in Q1), mainly due to spending in healthcare, housing and energy.

Read More »

FX Daily, September 10: Turn Around Tuesday

2019-09-10

by

2019-09-10

Overview: The momentum from the end of last week carried into yesterday's activity, but the momentum began fading.  Today, equities were mixed in Asia Pacific and weaker in Europe. The Dow Jones Stoxx 600 reversed lower yesterday and is slipped further today.  The S&P 500 may gap lower at the open.

Read More »

How Is Negative Interest Possible? Report 8 Sep

2019-09-10

by

2019-09-10

Gold and Silver Prices
Germany has recently joined Switzerland in the dubious All Negative Club. The interest rate on every government bond, from short to 30 years, is now negative. Many would say “congratulations”, in the belief that this proves their credit risk is … well … umm … negative(?) And anyways, it will let them borrow more to spend on consumption which will stimulate … umm… well… all of the wasteful consumption for which governments are rightly...

Read More »

Is The Negativity Overdone?

2019-09-10

by

2019-09-10

China Exports, 2006-2019
Give stimulus a chance, that’s the theme being set up for this week. After relentless buying across global bond markets distorting curves, upsetting politicians and the public alike, central bankers have responded en masse. There were more rate cuts around the world in August than there had been at any point since 2009.

Read More »

FX Daily, September 9: Market Sentiment Still Constructive

2019-09-09

by

2019-09-09

Overview: The improvement of investor sentiment seen last week is carrying over into the start of the new weeks. Global equities are firm as are benchmark yields. Asia Pacific equities advanced, except in Hong Kong, where Chief Executive Lam's promise to formally withdraw the controversial extradition bill failed to deter protests.

Read More »

FX Weekly Preview: Gaming the ECB and Putting the Cart Before Horse in the Brexit Drama

2019-09-09

by

2019-09-09

The step away from the edge of the abyss may have stirred the animal spirits, but it remains precarious at best. The formal withdrawal of the extradition bill in Hong Kong is too late and too little at this juncture. The ambitions of the protests have evolved well beyond that.

Read More »

EM Preview for the Week Ahead

2019-09-09

by

2019-09-09

Despite some positive developments last week, we think the three key issues for risk assets have not been resolved yet.  Hong Kong protests continue, while reports suggest the US and China remain far apart.  Even Brexit has likely been given only a three month reprieve.  We remain negative on EM until these key issues have been ultimately resolved.

Read More »

SNB Jordan: Cannot say how long negative interest rates will last

2019-09-08

by

2019-09-08

SNBs Jordan on the wiresThe Swiss national banks Jordan is on the wires saying:He cannot say how long negative interest rates will lastNegative rates are necessary for nowInterest rate spreads like important role for exchange ratesThe USDCHF is trading higher today. It currently trades at 0.9861.

Read More »

These Are Not Signs of a Healthy Market

2019-09-08

by

2019-09-08

SPX Large Cap, April - August 2019
The implicit narrative of the latest rally in stocks is that this is just another normal rally in the ongoing 10-year long Bull market. Nice, but do these three charts look "normal" to you? Let's take a quick glance at a daily chart of the S&P 500 (SPX), a weekly chart of TLT, the exchange-traded fund of the US Treasury 20-year bond, and silver.

Read More »

New 100 Swiss Franc Note Coming Soon

2019-09-07

by

2019-09-07

The note’s design is inspired by Switzerland’s tradition of humanitarianism, represented on the note by water. The note remains blue but is much smaller than the existing one, making it easier to fit into wallets.

Read More »

Just Who Was The Intended Audience For The Rate Cut?

2019-09-07

by

2019-09-07

Federal Reserve Beige Book, December 2010 - September 2019
Federal Reserve policymakers appear to have grown more confident in their more optimistic assessment of the domestic situation. Since cutting the benchmark federal funds range by 25 bps on July 31, in speeches and in other ways Chairman Jay Powell and his group have taken on a more “hawkish” tilt. This isn’t all the way back to last year’s rate hikes, still a pronounced difference from a few months ago.

Read More »

FX Daily, September 06: Focus Shifts to North American Jobs Before Turning Back to Europe next Week

2019-09-06

by

2019-09-06

Investors hope that the world took a step away from the abyss in recent days. Developments in Hong Kong, US-China talking, a political and economic crisis in Italy appears to have been averted, and a risk of a no-deal Brexit has lessened. Asia Pacific equities closed the week on a firm note and extended the rally the third week.

Read More »

Nationalbank – SNB-Präsident Jordan: Libra könnte Geldpolitik gefährden

2019-09-06

by

2019-09-06

Die Schweizerische Nationalbank (SNB) misst Kryptowährungen wie Bitcoin wenig Potenzial zu. Die Chancen darauf, als Zahlungsmittel akzeptiert zu werden, sind aus Sicht der Zentralbank gering. Kryptowährungen hätten "eher den Charakter von spekulativen Anlageinstrumenten als von 'gutem' Geld", sagte der SNB-Präsident in einer Rede an der Universität Basel.

Read More »

USD/CHF bounces from trend-line support on trade news

2019-09-06

by

2019-09-06

USD/CHF levels
US/Sino trade teams will consult in mid-September with a view for a meeting in Washington in early October. USD/CHF is currently trading 0.26% higher and bouning of trend-line support.

Read More »

Will Everything Change in 2020-2025 or Will Nothing Change?

2019-09-06

by

2019-09-06

Rising Wedge Model of Breakdown
Any domino-like expanding crisis will unfold in a status quo lacking any coherent response. Longtime readers know I've often referenced The Fourth Turning, the book that makes the case for an 80-year cycle of existential crisis in U.S. history.

Read More »

Switzerland GDP Q2 2019: +0.3 percent QoQ, -0.2 percent YoY

2019-09-05

by

2019-09-05

Switzerland Gross Domestic Product (GDP) QoQ, Q2 2019
Switzerland’s GDP rose by 0.3% in the 2nd quarter of 2019, after increasing by 0.4% (revised) in the previous quarter.1 The development of domestic and foreign demand was weak, as in other European countries, which had a particularly negative impact on the service sectors.

Read More »

FX Daily, September 05: Brexit becomes a Dog’s Breakfast as Dollar’s Correction Continues

2019-09-05

by

2019-09-05

The Dollar Index fell the most in three months yesterday and is experiencing mild follow-through selling today. With hopes that Hong Kong has turned a corner, news that in-person US-China talks will resume next month, and a no-deal Brexit is well on the way to being averted, investor risk appetites are robust today.

Read More »