Tag Archive: newsletter

FX Daily, August 11: Gold and the Dollar are Sold while Stocks March Higher

2020-08-11

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2020-08-11

A rotation of sorts seems to be unfolding. The euro posted its second back-to-back loss in over a month. The Canadian dollar, which has been an under-performer among the major currencies for the past six weeks, gained, while most fell. 

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Traditional working model hampers Swiss women’s careers

2020-08-11

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2020-08-11

Swiss women are losing out when it comes to achieving managerial positions compared to their male colleagues and female peers from other countries. The common Swiss working model of women taking over childcare and men working full-time makes it harder for Swiss mothers to climb up the career ladder.

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The Dollar Is Dying

2020-08-11

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2020-08-11

Insulting the Captive Audience. This week, while perusing the Federal Reserve’s balance sheet figures, we came across a rather curious note.  We don’t know how long the Fed’s had this note posted to its website.  But we can’t recall ever seeing it.

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SPECIAL REPORT: Follow The Money – Volume 5

2020-08-11

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2020-08-11

If the recession was the first “shoe to drop”, what’s the second…or third? The shock of the self-inflicted COVID recession is behind us. What we’re all wondering now is what comes next? Will the economy recover to its previous state? Something better? Something worse? That will be determined by the second and third-order effects and they are already starting.

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A Second JOLTS

2020-08-11

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2020-08-11

What happens when we are stunned and dazed? We filter out the noise to focus on the bare basics by getting back to our instincts, acting reflexively based upon our deeply held beliefs and especially training. When faced with a crisis and there’s no time to really think, shorthand will have to suffice.

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Speculative Positioning in Selected Currency Futures

2020-08-10

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2020-08-10

With the media playing up the US dollar's negatives, one would think speculators are short the greenback like there is no tomorrow. Yet a review of the Commitment of Traders report that covers the week through last Tuesday, August 4, shows that this is not really the case.

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FX Daily, August 10: Monday in August

2020-08-10

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2020-08-10

Overview: The new week has begun slowly with Singapore and Tokyo markets closed for national holidays. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index rose 2% last week and edged higher today, led by 1.5%-1.7% rallies in South Korea and Australia.  Hong Kong was a notable exception and eased around 0.6%.

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The Economy Is Mortally Wounded

2020-08-10

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2020-08-10

A fully financialized, totally debt and speculation-dependent economy is terminal once leverage and debt stop expanding exponentially. We all know the movie scene in which the character is wounded but dismisses it as no big deal, and then lurches into the closing sequence where we discover the wound was not inconsequential, it was mortal, and the character expires.

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House View, August 2020

2020-08-10

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2020-08-10

We have revised up our euro area GDP forecast for 2020 to -8.5%, mainly due to improving data in Germany, which is better positioned to recover rapidly from the downturn than its European peers. Meanwhile, the US economy has shown signs of flatlining amid escalating covid-19 cases in the South. Consumer confidence has taken a hit, while weekly unemployment claims have been rising again.

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The Ant and the Grasshopper: A Window into Macro Part II

2020-08-10

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2020-08-10

Regardless of the dollar's role and function in the world economy and the halls of finance, in the near and intermediate terms, investors and businesses are more concerned with foreign exchange prices.  The greenback has fallen out of favor. Its main supports, like wide interest rate differentials, favorable growth differentials, and political certainty if not stability, have weakened.

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Why Fed Bugs Really, Really Hate Gold

2020-08-10

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2020-08-10

Judy Shelton, a Trump nominee to the Fed Board of Governors, may not have coined the excellent term "Fed Bug," but she used it to delicious effect in this 2019 Financial Times interview: “People call me a goldbug, and I think, well, what does that make them? A Fed bug,” she says.

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EM Preview for the Week Ahead

2020-08-10

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2020-08-10

The dollar got some traction against the majors towards the end of last week. This weighed on EM FX, with the high best currencies TRY, BRL, CLP, and ZAR leading the losers. We downplay risk of contagion from Turkey, but we acknowledge it will keep investors wary of the countries with poor fundamentals.

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Coronavirus: Swiss health authority adds pregnant women to risk list

2020-08-09

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2020-08-09

After a number of recent studies that suggest pregnant women are exposed to higher risks from the SARS-CoV-2 virus, Switzerland’s Federal Office of Public Health (FOPH) adds them to the list of people vulnerable to Covid-19. The FOPH reached its recent conclusion based on discussions with the Swiss society of gynecology and obstetrics. The society sets out the findings of a number of studies in a report.

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If the “Market” Never Goes Down, The System Is Doomed

2020-08-09

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2020-08-09

Bear Market Cartoon
"Markets" that never go down aren't markets, they're signaling mechanisms of the Powers That Be. Markets are fundamentally clearing houses of information on price, demand, sentiment, expectations and so on--factual data on supply and demand, shipping costs, cost of credit, etc.--and reflections of trader and consumer emotions and psychology.

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Coronavirus: new cases in Switzerland remain at last week’s level

2020-08-08

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2020-08-08

In the seven days to 7 August 2020, the reported number of new SARS-CoV-2 infections recorded in Switzerland was 1037, roughly the same as the 1,078 cases recorded the week before. Over the weeks prior to this there were 772 and 692 new cases, according to worldinfometer.com.

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Shoe V arning

2020-08-08

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2020-08-08

US Trade in Goods, Jan 2010 - Jul 2020
It’s no wonder we’re obsessed with shoes these days. Even the V-people, as I’ll call them, keep one wary eye glued looking behind them. Survivor’s euphoria means a lot of potentially bad things, only beginning with a false sense of survivor-hood.

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FX Daily, August 07: Position Adjustment Dominates ahead of US/Canada Employment Reports

2020-08-07

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2020-08-07

Escalating dramas may be behind the position adjustment today ahead of the US jobs data. The US and China feud expanded beyond Tiktok to WeChat, and efforts to tighten disclosure rules for Chinese companies listed in the US are nearing. The negotiations between the White House and the Democrats broke down, preventing or at least delaying additional stimulus. 

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Wann darf ich mehr als 2 ETFs im Depot haben?

2020-08-07

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Per möchte wissen: Ab wann ist mein Depot so groß, dass ich mehr als nur die Kombi MSCI World / MSCI Emerging Markets besparen kann? Viele Zeilen im Depot = Diversifikation Hm, der Finanzwesir hat eine klare Meinung dazu. Bonus-Meinung: Der Finanzwesir weiß, was Dr. Gerd Kommer von vielen Zeilen im Depot hält und sagt es auch. In diesem Clip! **Mehr vom Finanzwesir** - Blog: https://www.finanzwesir.com - Buch:...

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Swiss International Air Lines’ turnover halved due to coronavirus

2020-08-07

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2020-08-07

The economic repercussions of the coronavirus have caused turnover at SWISS to fall by 55% in the first half of 2020. With a turnover of CHF1.17 billion ($1.28 billion) between January and the end of June, the carrier suffered an operating loss of CHF266.4 million in the first half of the year, following an operating profit of CHF245.3 million a year earlier.

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The Bogus “Recovery,” Stress and Burnout

2020-08-07

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2020-08-07

US Stress, 2012 - 2017
We have three basic ways to counter the destructive consequences of stress.We have all experienced the disorientation and "brain freeze" that stress triggers. The pandemic and the responses to the pandemic have been continuous sources of stress, i.e. chronic stress, which is the pathway to burnout, the collapse of our ability to cope with the burdens pressing on us.

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