Tag Archive: newsletter

FX Daily, August 3: Stronger EMU PMIs Fail to Recharge the Euro’s Upside Momentum

2020-08-03

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2020-08-03

Overview: The capital markets are decidedly mixed today as investors are pulled between rising infections, heightened tensions between the US and China, lack of progress on new US stimulus, and technical forces as the new month begins.

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EM Preview for the Week Ahead

2020-08-03

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2020-08-03

EM currencies took advantage of broad dollar weakness against the majors last week, with most gaining against the greenback. Yet the week ended on a bit of a risk-off note as concerns intensified about the resurgent virus and the impact on the still-weak global economy.

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Swiss Retail Sales, June 2020: 0.4 percent Nominal and 1.1 percent Real

2020-08-03

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2020-08-03

Switzerland Retail Sales YoY, June 2020
Turnover adjusted for sales days and holidays rose in the retail sector by 0.4% in nominal terms in June 2020 compared with the previous year. Seasonally adjusted, nominal turnover fell by 3.6% compared with the previous month.

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How Swiss staycationers are scouting out your next alpine getaway

2020-08-03

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2020-08-03

Let’s dispose of the bad news right from the start. If you’re reading this and don’t live in Europe, chances are you’re not going to make it to Switzerland this year. Now for the good news. 

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A Vaccine May Not Be the “Magical Cure” Everyone Anticipates

2020-08-03

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2020-08-03

Few appear willing to follow the probabilities of a future in which a vaccine cannot possibly be the "magic cure" everyone wants. Let's attempt the impossible and set aside all preconceptions we might have about a vaccine for Covid-19, and think it through somewhat dispassionately.

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A blueprint for a European superstate

2020-08-01

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2020-08-01

After intense negotiations, long days and nights of clashes and a distinctly sour note underlying the entire summit, European Union leaders finally agreed on an unprecedented 1.82 trillion-euro ($2.1 trillion) budget and COVID recovery package.

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Silver “Scarcifies” – Precious Metals Supply and Demand

2020-07-31

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2020-07-31

Silver spot price vs. September basis
The action on 27 July was not. Notice the big drop in the basis starting around midnight (London time). It falls from over 7% to under 2%.

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That’s Probably Why Only Half a “V”

2020-07-31

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2020-07-31

IHS Markit US Composite, 2018-2020
Why only half a “V?” If the latest PMI’s are anywhere close to accurate, and they don’t have to be all that close, then the production side of the economy may have stalled out somewhere nearer the trough of this contraction. The promise of May’s big payroll report surprise has dissipated in more than just the bond market.

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The Government Wants Your Crypto Data. And Lots of It.

2020-07-31

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2020-07-31

The Venezuelan government recently announced that its Administrative Service for Identification, Migration and Foreigners (SAIME) is now accepting bitcoin as a payment method for passports. The problem with that is that bitcoin is not anonymous but pseudonymous.

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FX Daily, July 30: Greenback’s Bounce is Likely Short-Lived

2020-07-30

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2020-07-30

A wave of profit-taking is seen through most of the capital markets today, with the exception of the bond market, where yields continue to trend lower.  The US 10-year is now yielding 55 bp, a new low since early March, and the five-year yield set a new record low near 23 bp.  European yields are 2-4 bp lower.

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Weekly view – The summer grind

2020-07-30

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2020-07-30

All kinds of reasons can be advanced for the tit-for-tat closure of the Chinese consulate in Houston and its US equivalent in Chengdu. These range from a dispute over quarantine requirements for US diplomats returning to China to an attempt by the Trump Administration to distract from troubling virus news and a real threat to American intellectual property and privacy.

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Temporary employee sector hit hard by Covid-19 crisis

2020-07-30

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2020-07-30

The number of hours worked by temporary employees in Switzerland has dropped by about 23% due to the impact of restrictions imposed in the wake of the Covid-19 pandemic.

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Dollar Weak Ahead of Likely Dovish Hold from the Fed

2020-07-30

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2020-07-30

US and Germany Yields
The FOMC decision today is likely to deliver a very dovish tone; the dollar tends to weaken on FOMC decision days. Tensions about the latest US stimulus bill are rising; core bond yields have been remarkably stable over the last several months.

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New Unemployment Increased to 1.4 Million Last Week as Recovery Falters

2020-07-30

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2020-07-30

The rising unemployment comes partly as a result of state governments forcing the closures of some businesses, or restricting operations, in the name of mandatory social distancing.

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Gold Reaches $2,000/oz Prior to Two “Concerted Attacks” In Futures Market

2020-07-30

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2020-07-30

Gold Price
The King Report“Anyone that’s been around the block a few times with gold knows that at some point ‘they’ will stage a concerted effort to drive gold lower.” December gold hit $2,000 at 21:19 ET Monday. It then retreated and traded sideways until 22:50 ET. Then someone slammed gold down to $1,955 in 20 minutes. This is obvious “impact trading.” Gold then traded sideways for over four hours.

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FX Daily, July 29: Greenback Slips Ahead of the FOMC

2020-07-29

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2020-07-29

Global equity markets are stabilizing today, and the dollar is once again on its back foot. Chinese markets led a mixed regional performance with a 2%-3% gain, while South Korea and Hong Kong markets also advancing. The strength of the yen appears to weigh on Japanese shares.

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American Police Forces Were Created to Fight Rioters. But Police Probably Made Things Worse.

2020-07-29

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2020-07-29

Whenever the vicious portion of population shall be permitted to gather in bands of hundreds and thousands, and burn churches, ravage and rob provision-stores, throw printing presses into rivers, shoot editors, and hang and burn obnoxious persons at pleasure, and with impunity,” Abraham Lincoln told a crowd in Springfield, Illinois, in 1838, “the feelings of the best citizens will become more or less alienated from it.

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The Nation Is Falling Into the Abyss Between Wall Street and Main Street

2020-07-29

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2020-07-29

Student Loans Owned and Securitized, 2008-2020
The abyss between the Fed's illusion of phantom wealth for Wall Street and the collapse of Main Street is bottomless, and our descent into the abyss is accelerating. I know this runs counter to every dominant narrative, but a vaccine doesn't really matter, opening up doesn't really matter, and the size of the "free money" stimulus checks doesn't matter.

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Dollar Stabilizes but Further Losses Likely

2020-07-29

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2020-07-29

Dollar YTD Performance, 2020
The dollar is stabilizing today but further losses are likely. Senate Republicans have proposed a sharp cut to weekly unemployment benefits; Senator Collins will oppose Judy Shelton’s nomination to the Fed. Regional Fed manufacturing surveys for July will continue to roll out; early July reads for the US economy support our view that Q3 is off to a rocky start.

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There Are No Winners in the US-China “Tech War”

2020-07-29

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2020-07-29

Global Exports and Manufacturing
After unleashing a disruptive trade conflict with China, the Trump administration has also escalated the lingering “cold tech war” between the two rival powers. Over the last two years, the US has passed new rules limiting China’s investments in the US, restricting bilateral information and communications technology (ICT) trade and controlling exports of sensitive and emerging technology to China.

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