Tag Archive: newsletter

The Crisis of Capital

2018-12-31

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2018-12-31

US Average Hourly Wages, Seasonally Adjusted, 1964 - 2018
The undeniable reality of the 21st century economy is that capital has gained while labor has stagnated. While various critics quibbled about his methodology, Thomas Piketty's core finding--that capital expanded faster than GDP and wages/salaries (i.e. earned income from labor)--is visible in these charts.

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The Recline and Flail of Western Civilization and Other 2019 Predictions

2018-12-31

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2018-12-31

The Recline and Flail of Western Civilization and Other 2019 Predictions. “I think it’s a tremendous opportunity to buy.  Really a great opportunity to buy.” – President Donald Trump, Christmas Day 2018. Darts in a Blizzard. Today, as we prepare to close out the old, we offer a vast array of tidings.

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Swiss Lead Ranking of Globalised Countries

2018-12-30

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2018-12-30

Switzerland was the most globalised country in the world, according to a 2016 survey by the KOF Swiss Economic Institute. It moved up one place to the top compared with the previous year. The Netherlands, Belgium. Sweden and Britain followed in the next places. The United States are in 23rd place and the Comoros, Afghanistan and Guinea-Bissau are bottom of the 195-country rankingexternal link, which was published on Thursday.

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Agism most frequent form of discrimination in Switzerland, according to survey

2018-12-30

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2018-12-30

Elderly-man
Growing old is something that happens to nearly all of us. However, according to a recent study close to one in three people (28%) reported age-related discrimination in Switzerland in 2017. The rate of age discrimination (28%) is higher than sexism (22%) and racism (12%), according to Christian Maggiori, a professor focused on social work interviewed by the newspaper La Liberté.

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Technical Musings about the Euro and Dollar Anchored by Macro

2018-12-30

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2018-12-30

Tunafish
The $1.1475-$1.1550 is an important area for the euro.  Many bulls see a rounded bottom being carved and a break above it would be embraced as a confirmation. The lower-end corresponds to the 100-day moving average. Such a bottom pattern, if confirmed, would project toward $1.1800 the high in H2 18. On the downside, the low from H2 18 was near $1.1200.  This is just above a key (61.8%) retracement of the January 2017-February 2018 rally. 

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Swiss Export Industry backs EU Framework Deal

2018-12-29

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2018-12-29

Hans Hess
Switzerland’s largest industrial employer, the Association of Mechanical and Electrical Engineering Industries, has come out in favour of a controversial accord, covering relations with the European Union. Hans Hess, president of Swissmem, said the draft agreement was tailor-made for Switzerland.

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Week Winding Down on Firm Note, but Wild Ride may Not Be Over

2018-12-29

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2018-12-29

The biggest reversal in the S&P 500 since 2010, allowing it to string the biggest two-day rally in three years helped lift Asian and European shares today. All the Asia-Pacific equity markets advanced today but Japan, where the strength of the yen saw the Nikkei and Topix buck the move. European equities.

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Mixed Outlook for Swiss watchmakers

2018-12-28

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2018-12-28

Swiss Watch Industry
The Swiss watchmaking industry expects a continuing rise in exports next year but is concerned that the United States’ protectionist trade policy could have a negative impact on the sector. Jean-Daniel Pasche, president of the Federation of the Swiss Watch Industry, said the sector would record in 2018 the third consecutive year with growth, and the value of exports could exceed CHF21 billion ($21.2 billion).

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Some Thoughts on What is Happening

2018-12-28

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2018-12-28

Elephant
People do not just disagree on what should and will happen, but they disagree on what has happened. As William Faulkner instructed: "The past is not dead. Actually, it's not even past. This is clear in the narratives about the sharp drop in equity markets.

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Wasting the Middle: Obsessing Over Exits

2018-12-28

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2018-12-28

NYMEX WTI Futures 2016-2018
What was the difference between Bear Stearns and Lehman Brothers? Well, for one thing Lehman’s failure wasn’t a singular event. In the heady days of September 2008, authorities working for any number of initialism agencies were busy trying to put out fires seemingly everywhere. Lehman had to compete with an AIG as well as a Wachovia, already preceded by a Fannie and a Freddie.

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Swiss Post handles record volume of Christmas parcels

2018-12-27

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2018-12-27

Swiss Post sorted and delivered a record 1.4 million parcels a day in the week before Christmas, which can be attributed to the continued growth of online shopping. This compares with last year’s record of 1.3 million set on December 19, Swiss Post said on Boxing Day.

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Are Stocks Overvalued, Report 24 Dec 2018

2018-12-27

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2018-12-27

Gold and Silver Prices
We could also have entitled this essay How to Measure Your Own Capital Destruction. But this headline would not have set expectations correctly. As always, when looking at the phenomenon of a credit-fueled boom, the destruction does not occur when prices crash. It occurs while they’re rising.

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The net result is capital is impaired in eras of uncertainty.

2018-12-27

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2018-12-27

Political Polarization Has Exploded Since 2000
The net result is capital is impaired in eras of uncertainty. As we look ahead to 2019, what can we be certain of? Maybe your list is long, but mine has only one item: certainty is fraying. Confidence in financial policies intended to eliminate recessions is fraying, confidence in political processes that are supposed to actually solve problems rather than make them worse is fraying, confidence in the objectivity of the corporate media is fraying,...

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Swiss foreign minister defends proposed EU deal

2018-12-26

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2018-12-26

Foreign Minister Ignazio Cassis
Foreign Minister Ignazio Cassis has rejected criticism of the results of negotiations with the European Union about a framework accord, encompassing all aspects of political relations between Switzerland and the 28-nation bloc.

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Just In Time For The Circus

2018-12-26

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2018-12-26

Eurozone Markit Composite PMI and GDP, Jul 2012 - Nov 2018
Just in time to follow closely upon yesterday’s European circus, IHS Markit piles on with more of the same forward-looking indications looking forward the wrong way. Mario Draghi says the ECB is ending QE, good for him. The central bank will do this despite balanced risks rebalancing in a different place. The more bad news and numbers stack up the more “they” say it’s nothing just transitory roughness.

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Halal label on Swiss chocolate sparks controversy

2018-12-25

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2018-12-25

Some consumers in Switzerland and abroad have been questioning the halal label on Toblerone chocolate bars. Although certified as halal in April, it was only this week that a small storm began brewing on social media – with some people calling for boycotts of the chocolate produced by Mondelez in Bern.

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Das: “The Bubble Is Losing Air. Get Ready For A Crisis”

2018-12-25

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2018-12-25

The shift to tighter monetary policies in the West is weakening credit markets. Over-indebted emerging markets face headwinds from rising borrowing costs and dollar shortages... Investors need to focus on their response to financial stresses in an era in which policymakers will be constrained.

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Swiss Luxury Watches Fail to Meet Environmental Standards

2018-12-24

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2018-12-24

The Swiss branch of the environmental organisation, WWF, has called on Swiss-based watch companies to take more responsibility for ecological and social impacts, notably the use of gold. In its reportexternal link analysing the 15 biggest watch brands, the WWF says its findings are highly worrying as most companies have done nothing to address and counter climate change.

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Xi Jinping’s Pretty Consistent Message

2018-12-24

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2018-12-24

China Industry Drives its Consumers, May 2011 - Nov 2018
It seems many were disappointed by the speech delivered by Xi Jinping. China’s supreme leader spoke at the Great Hall of the People in Beijing today on the 40th anniversary of his country’s first embrace of economic reform. Commentators had been expecting Xi to use the occasion to recommit to liberalization, further opening China to free market forces.

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Core Euro Sovereign Bonds 2019 Outlook

2018-12-23

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2018-12-23

10 Year Bund Yield and EONIA Pricing, 2016 - 2018
In our central scenario, we expect the 10-year Bund yield to rise gradually to 0.8% by the end of next year from 0.26% on 17 December. Underpinning this upward movement is our expectation of a cumulative deposit rate hike of 40 basis points (bps) by the ECB, against current market expectations of only 10 bps.

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