by Lance Roberts
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| Why are markets $SPX $QQQ staying strong (even hitting all-time highs) despite a major geopolitical shock like the Strait of Hormuz disruption, which affects ~20% of global #crudeoil supply? The ~10% pullback we had wasn’t unusual—it’s a typical correction we have every year. The Hormuz situation didn’t create this correction—it simply acted as the catalyst for a correction that was likely coming anyway. That drop was mainly a valuation reset, not a structural breakdown. Once that reset happened, markets quickly resumed their upward trend. * The key assumption is that this disruption is short-lived. Investors believe the strait will reopen relatively soon, restoring supply. However, if the disruption lasts 3–4 months, the entire narrative changes. * Oil supply shock is being actively mitigated (4 key buffers): 1) Rerouting of Middle Eastern oil 2) Strategic reserves stepped in aggressively (the IEA coordinated a massive 400 million barrel release – the largest ever) 3) China is not under pressure (unexpectedly strong position with ~1.4 billion barrels in reserves) 4) The US is no longer highly vulnerable and is in a much stronger energy position These factors prevented a panic-driven spike in oil, which is usually what drags markets down. * The REAL risk for the markets is actually the opposite and will come later. This is the part most investors miss: if/when the Strait reopens, supply returns, strategic reserves stop releasing, and rerouted supply stays active. As a result, we can have a potential oil oversupply. And it is an entirely different story. 📺Full episode: Catch Lance Roberts daily on The Real Investment Show: https://www.youtube.com/@TheRealInvestmentShow |
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