Tag Archive: newsletter

ECB (Data) Independence

2018-09-15

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2018-09-15

ECB Real GDP Projections 2016-2018
Mario Draghi doesn’t have a whole lot going for him, but he is at least consistent – at times (yes, inconsistent consistency). Bloomberg helpfully reported yesterday how the ECB’s staff committee that produces the econometric projections has recommended the central bank’s Governing Council change the official outlook. Since last year, risks have been “balanced” in their collective opinion.

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FX Daily, September 14: Dollar Losses Extended

2018-09-14

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2018-09-14

The US dollar remains on the defensive after retreating yesterday.  Its losses against the most of the major and emerging market currencies are being extended today.  The combination of softer US inflation coupled with a less dovish than expected ECB, a Bank of England lifting growth forecasts, while warning that a Brexit without an agreement could spur higher mortgage rates, and a more aggressive rate hike by Turkey conspired to force the dollar...

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A successful bank should be boring

2018-09-14

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2018-09-14

No changes to the ECB’s monetary stance and policy guidance mean we are holding to our forecasts for quantitative easing and rate hikes.The ECB made no change to its monetary stance and policy guidance at its 13 September meeting. The end of quantitative easing (QE) was confirmed for after December, following a final reduction in the pace of net asset purchases to EUR15bn per month in Q4 2018.Much of the focus was on the updated ECB staff...

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New long-haul budget airline from Basel launches fundraising

2018-09-14

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2018-09-14

The idea is simple. Keep costs low by flying point-to-point, thus avoiding costly hubs, use one model of aircraft to contain pilot and aircraft maintenance costs, and charge passengers for everything from coffee to checked-in luggage. Southwest Airlines was first to launch the model and copycats like EasyJet followed.

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Europe Starting To Reckon Eurodollar Curve

2018-09-14

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2018-09-14

Europe Industrial Production 2016-2018
We’ve been here before. Economists and central bankers become giddy about the prospects for success, meaning actual recovery. For that to happen, reflation must first attain enough momentum. If it does, as is always forecast, reflation becomes recovery. The world then moves off this darkening path toward the unknown crazy.

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FX Daily, September 13: Vulnerable To Disappointment

2018-09-13

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2018-09-13

There is an eerie calm in the markets ahead of the highlight for the day and week. The central banks of the eurozone, UK, and Turkey hold policy meetings, and the US reports August CPI. The greenback is a mostly firmer, with the Australian dollar as the notable exception. On the one hand, we would note that is it higher for the fourth consecutive sessions, after finding some support near $0.7100 earlier in the week. 

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Swiss Producer and Import Price Index in August 2018: +3.4 percent YoY, unchanged MoM

2018-09-13

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2018-09-13

Switzerland Producer Price Index (PPI) YoY, August 2018
The Producer and Import Price Index remained unchanged in August 2018 compared with the previous month. The index stood at 103.4 points (December 2015 = 100). Prices were higher in particular for pharmaceutical and chemical products, while scrap became cheaper. Compared with August 2017, the price level of the whole range of domestic and imported products rose by 3.4%.

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The Next Financial Crisis Is Right on Schedule (2019)

2018-09-13

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2018-09-13

S-curve of Rapid Expansion, Stagnation and Decline
Neither small business nor the bottom 90% of households can afford this "best economy ever." After 10 years of unprecedented goosing, some of the real economy is finally overheating: costs are heating up, unemployment is at historic lows, small business optimism is high, and so on--all classic indicators that the top of this cycle is in.

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Is the tide turning for social media platforms in Switzerland?

2018-09-13

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2018-09-13

The Swiss appear to be switching off from social media, according to a survey, which suggests that the image of Facebook and Twitter have taken a hit. Some 55% of the Swiss population used social media in 2017, down 4% compared with a year earlier, a media brand study for the consultancy firm Publicom revealed. The report, published on Wednesday, says that social media lost more users last year than print media.

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FX Daily, September 12: Dollar Chops in Narrow Ranges

2018-09-12

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2018-09-12

Eurostat confirmed that EMU industrial output fell for a second consecutive month in July. The 0.8% decline was larger than expected and is the third decline of such a magnitude in four months and weighed on the euro. German and Spanish industrial output had surprised on the downside last week, and Italy matched suit today with a report showing a 1.8% contraction, much larger than expected, and bringing the year-over-year rate to -1.3% (workday...

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Switzerland Q2 growth numbers are impressive, but details are mixed

2018-09-12

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2018-09-12

Swiss quarterly GDP growth with adjustment for sport events 2014-2018
Manufacturing and sports events served as boosts to growth, while domestic consumption was a letdown.The latest Swiss GDP figures were impressive. According to the State Secretariat for Economic Affairs’ quarterly estimates, Swiss real GDP grew by 0.7% q-o-q in Q2, slightly above our 0.6% projection and consensus. Average growth in the first half of 2018 was therefore the strongest since 2010.

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Great Graphic: Did the CRB Bottom?

2018-09-12

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2018-09-12

The CRB index has been trending lower since late May. It fell nearly 10% to retrace 50% of the rally come June 2017. This Great Graphic shows the 4 1/2 month trendline. It had been violated in late August but fell back under it at the end of last week.  

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Rep. Alex Mooney: Bring Back Gold!

2018-09-12

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2018-09-12

Washington has been quite the circus lately. Bret Kavanaugh’s appearance in front of the Senate Judiciary Committee prompted dozens of interruptions from Democrats and numerous protests from leftists. During Twitter CEO Jack Dorsey’s testimony to the House Commerce Committee, journalist Laura Loomer demanded to be verified on the social media platform, and Representative Billy Long (R-MO) held an auction.

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Steuern sparen Immobilien – Wie du als Immobilieninvestor deinen Steuersatz senkst | Johann Köber

2018-09-11

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Steuern sparen Immobilien - sichere dir jetzt dein Ticket für den nächsten Immopreneur Kongress 2019: http://bit.ly/IPK19YT Eine der besten Möglichkeiten, um deinen Gewinn als Immobilieninvestor zu erhöhen, ist Möglichkeiten zu finden, wie du deinen Steuersatz senkst. In diesem Video zeigt dir Johann Köber, wie du es schaffst, durch Immobilien Steuern zu sparen. Jetzt für die Immopreneur Masterclass mit Thomas Knedel bewerben: ▶▶▶...

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FX Daily, September 11: Dollar May Prove Resilient if it is Turn Around Tuesday

2018-09-11

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2018-09-11

The euro and sterling extended their recovery from the US hourly earnings lows seen before the weekend. However, the move stalled in the European morning, after the UK reported better than expected earnings itself. Sterling approached the 61.8% retracement of the decline from the July high (~$1.3365) found just below $1.31. It has been correcting higher since reaching almost $1.2660 on August 15.

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Why the Fed Denied the Narrow Bank, Report 9 Sep 2018

2018-09-11

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2018-09-11

Gold and Silver Price
It’s not every day that a clear example showing the horrors of central planning comes along—the doublethink, the distortions, and the perverse incentives. It’s not every year that such an example occurs for monetary central planning. One came to the national attention this week. A company called TNB applied for a Master Account with the Federal Reserve Bank of New York.

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Cool Video: What Earth Really Looks Like

2018-09-11

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2018-09-11

Here is the challenge:  Representing a three-dimensional object in two-dimensions.  It is impossible to do without distortions.  Those distortions can reflect cultural biases as well as the function of the map, such as for navigation purposes.  

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Global Asset Allocation Update – September 2018

2018-09-11

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2018-09-11

Moderate Allocation, Sep 2018
The risk budget is unchanged again this month. For the moderate risk investor, the allocation between bonds and risk assets is 50/50. Decoupling anyone? That’s what the market is whispering right now, that the recent troubles in foreign economies is contained and won’t affect the US. The most obvious example of that trend is the performance of US stocks versus the rest of the world.

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Takeovers and trade at heart of minister’s China visit

2018-09-11

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2018-09-11

It is unfair that whilst Chinese investors can buy Swiss companies the reverse is not possible, says economics minister Johann Schneider-Ammann, who is currently on a visit to China. In an interview with the “Schweiz am Wochenende” newspaper, he reiterated his view that this must be rectified. For infrastructure like electricity supply and telecommunications, the government should be able to intervene “if a company is threatened by a foreign...

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FX Daily, September 10: Initial Extension of Euro and Sterling Losses Stall

2018-09-10

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2018-09-10

The US dollar's pre-weekend gains were extended against most the major currencies, but the euro, sterling, and Australian dollar have recovered in the European morning.  Emerging markets currencies are mixed. The Indian rupee is the weakest(of the emerging market currencies (~-0.8%) following the widening of the Q2 current account deficit at the end of last week and ahead of the August trade deficit which is expected to show the impact of rising...

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