Tag Archive: newsletter

Fragile truce in Osaka

2019-07-03

by

2019-07-03

The US's Trade Deficit with China Continues to Dwarf Others, Despite Tariffs
The US and China reached a ‘trade truce’ on the margins of the G20 summit this weekend, but existing tariffs remain in place. And we are only a tweet away from more Trumpian upheaval.The US and China leaders agreed on a truce during their much-anticipated meeting at the G20 summit in Osaka this weekend. Bilateral trade talks will restart.

Read More »

FX Daily, July 2: Post-G20 Euphoria Fades, Stuck with Same Reality

2019-07-02

by

2019-07-02

Overview: The euphoria that greeted the resumption of US-China and US-North Korea talks has subsided. Global equities have turned mixed after yesterday's surge. Hong Kong played catch-up, and despite ongoing demonstrations, the Hang Seng rallied over one percent, and the Hong Kong Dollar strengthened beyond its band midpoint for the first time in nine months.

Read More »

GDP Begets More GDP (Positive Feedback), Report 30 June

2019-07-02

by

2019-07-02

Gold and Silver Price
Last week, we discussed the fundamental flaw in GDP. GDP is a perfect tool for central planning tools. But for measuring the economy, not so much. This is because it looks only at cash revenues. It does not look at the balance sheet. It does not take into account capital consumption or debt accumulation. Any Keynesian fool can add to GDP by borrowing to spend. But that is not economic growth.

Read More »

America’s Concealed Crisis: Fifty Years of Economic Decline, 1969 to 2019

2019-07-02

by

2019-07-02

U.S. Average Hourly Wages, SA 1964-2018
If we consider the long term, it's clear America's economy and society have been declining for the average household for 50 years. What if the "prosperity" of the past 50 years is mostly a statistical mirage for the bottom 80% of households? 

Read More »

FX Daily, July 01: Trade Optimism Meet Reality of Disappointing PMI

2019-07-01

by

2019-07-01

Overview: A new tariff truce between the US and China, coupled with the North Korean diplomacy and Russia-Saudi tentative agreement boosted investor confidence and sharp equity rallies. Japanese and Chinese equities rallied 2-3%. Most markets rallied in Asia-Pacific except for South Korea's Kospi and Hong Kong markets were closed as the handover was commemorated.

Read More »

Swiss Retail Sales, May 2019: -1.6 percent Nominal and -1.7 percent Real

2019-07-01

by

2019-07-01

Switzerland Retail Sales YoY, May 2019
Turnover in the retail sector fell by 1.6% in nominal terms in May 2019 compared with the previous year. Seasonally adjusted, nominal turnover fell by 1.5% compared with the previous month. These are provisional findings from the Federal Statistical Office (FSO).

Read More »

FX Weekly Preview: Macro Update: Melodrama Subsides but Capriciousness Remains

2019-07-01

by

2019-07-01

Since President Trump declared the end of the tariff truce with China in early May, an important focus for investors was the G20 meeting. It was only as it drew near was a meeting between the two heads of state confirmed. What was billed as an extraordinary meeting reportedly lasted less than 90 minutes, and the results were broadly as expected.

Read More »

Vitol overtakes Glencore as biggest company in Switzerland

2019-07-01

by

2019-07-01

Commodity trader Vitol has taken the top spot in the ranking of the largest companies in Switzerland by total turnover, relegating Zug-based Glencore to second place. According to the rankingexternal link published in the Handelszeitung on Thursday, in 2018 Vitol boasted growth of 26.8% for a total turnover of CHF226 billion ($231 billion) compared to Glencore’s CHF215 billion.

Read More »

Following in Rome’s Footsteps: Moral Decay, Rising Inequality

2019-07-01

by

2019-07-01

U.S. Pre-Tax Income Share, 1913-2012
Here is the moral decay of America's ruling elites boiled down to a single word. There are many reasons why Imperial Rome declined, but two primary causes that get relatively little attention are moral decay and soaring wealth inequality. The two are of course intimately connected: once the morals of the ruling Elites degrade, what's mine is mine and what's yours is mine, too.

Read More »

Swiss government proposes overhaul of money-laundering laws 

2019-06-30

by

2019-06-30

The Swiss government wants to revamp the laws against money laundering so that lawyers, notaries and other advisors are required to comply with due diligence obligations.  The Federal Council (executive body) proposed on Wednesday a set of legal amendments to meet international standards in the fight against money laundering and terrorism financing. 

Read More »

Could a Cryptocurrency Become a Global Reserve Currency?

2019-06-30

by

2019-06-30

USD and other Currencies
Could a non-state cryptocurrency like bitcoin become a global reserve currency? I first proposed the idea back in November 2013, long before bitcoin's rise to $19,000, decline to $3,200, recent ascent to $13,000 and current retrace.

Read More »

Swiss mortgages and bank profits rise as jobs scale down

2019-06-29

by

2019-06-29

Swiss commercial banks achieved higher profits last year, mortgage loans tipped the CHF1 trillion ($1.02 trillion) mark and costs were saved by reducing headcounts. These are the findings of an annual report from the Swiss National bank (SNB).

Read More »

Switzerland’s upper house wants incentives for people who work beyond 65

2019-06-29

by

2019-06-29

The gap between Switzerland’s official retirement age – 65 for men and 64 for women – and average life expectancy is long. Life expectancy at 65 is 20 years for men (85) and 23 for women (88). More and more people are questioning the viability of living for two decades or more without working, particularly when the population is aging and the pension system is crumbling.

Read More »

Big pay gaps remain in Switzerland

2019-06-29

by

2019-06-29

Large wage gaps continue by gender and within Switzerland’s largest 26 firms, according to two new surveys. According to the Federal Office for Statistics, the median gross salary of male full-time employees in Switzerland stood at CHF85,200 ($87,276) last year, while for full-time female employees it was CHF71,500 – a 19% pay gap.

Read More »

FX Daily, June 28: The World may Look Different Come Monday

2019-06-28

by

2019-06-28

Overview: Quarter-end positioning seems to dominate today's activity. The outcome of bilateral talks at the G20 gathering partly reflects the influence of the US President who eschews multilateral efforts as a hindrance to its sovereignty.  Equities in Asia Pacific slipped today but held on to modest gains for the week.

Read More »

Banks in Switzerland 2018

2019-06-28

by

2019-06-28

Key Figures for 2018
The Swiss National Bank has today published its report Banks in Switzerland 2018 and the corresponding data for its annual banking statistics. The most significant events are summarised below.

Read More »

No, Autos Are Not “Cheaper Now”

2019-06-28

by

2019-06-28

How much did "cheapest" cars increase in 30 years?
According to the BLS, inflation in the category of "New Vehicles" has been practically non-existent the past 21 years. Longtime readers know I've long turned a skeptical gaze at official calculations of inflation, offering real-world analyses such as The Burrito Index: Consumer Prices Have Soared 160% Since 2001 (August 1, 2016) and Burrito Index Update: Burrito Cost Triples, Official Inflation Up 43% from 2001 (May 31, 2018).

Read More »

Swiss pensioners most likely age group to be overweight

2019-06-28

by

2019-06-28

Swiss seniors are much more likely to be overweight that other age categories, new statistics from the Federal Office for Public Health (FOPH) show. Some 53% of over-65-year-olds have a body mass index judged to be too high (over 25 on the BMI scale), according to the statistics released on Tuesday by the FOPH.

Read More »

Big Tech, Big Banks Push for “Cashless Society”

2019-06-28

by

2019-06-28

The War on Cash isn’t a conspiracy theory. It’s an open agenda. It’s being driven by an alignment of interests among bankers, central bankers, politicians, and Silicon Valley moguls who stand to benefit from an all-digital economy. Last week, Facebook – in partnership with major banks, payment processors, and e-commerce companies – launched a digital currency called Libra.

Read More »

FX Daily, June 27: Ready. Set. Wait.

2019-06-27

by

2019-06-27

Overview: The approaching month/quarter-end and the G20 meeting dominate considerations. Although the S&P 500 closed on its lows for the third consecutive session yesterday, Asia Pacific equities liked the apparent increase in the prospect of a tariff freeze between the US and China and the pullback in the Japanese yen.

Read More »