Tag Archive: newsletter

Insight Japan

2019-01-16

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2019-01-16

Japan CPI Food, Jan 2013 - 2019
As I wrote yesterday, “In the West, consumer prices overall are pushed around by oil. In the East, by food.” In neither case is inflation buoyed by “money printing.” Central banks both West and East are doing things, of course, but none of them amount to increasing the effective supply of money. Failure of inflation, more so economy, the predictable cost.

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FX Daily, January 15: New Phase Begins with UK Vote

2019-01-15

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2019-01-15

Several of the equity benchmarks are flirting with six-week highs, including MSCI Asia Pacific Index and the Emerging Markets Index. The Dow Jones Stoxx 600 is trying to extend its advancing streak for a third week, something not done since July.

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Former US interior secretary lands first job since stepping down

2019-01-15

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2019-01-15

Former United States interior secretary Ryan Zinke has landed his first job since leaving the Trump administration two weeks ago. Zinke has joined investment company Artillery One as managing director, swissinfo.ch has learned.

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The Decline and Fall of the European Union

2019-01-15

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2019-01-15

Greek Debt
This exhaustion of the neocolonial-neofeudal model was inevitable, and as a result, so too is the decline and fall of the European integration/exploitation project. That a single currency, the euro, would fracture rather than unite Europe was understood long before the euro's introduction as legal tender on January 1, 2002. 

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FX Daily, January 14: Dismal Chinese Trade Data Sets Tone

2019-01-14

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2019-01-14

Overview:  China's exports and imports were weaker than expected, though the trade surplus swelled to its widest in a couple of years. The implications have undermined equities and weighed on risk appetites more broadly. Nearly all the Asia-Pacific markets were lower except Japan and the Dow Jones Stoxx 60o in Europe is off 0.5% near midday to snap a four-day advance.

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Rising Interest and Prices, Report 13 Jan 2019

2019-01-14

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2019-01-14

Gold and Silver Price
For years, people blamed the global financial crisis on greed. Doesn’t this make you want to scream out, “what, were people not greedy in 2007 or 1997??” Greed utterly fails to explain the phenomenon. It merely serves to reinforce a previously-held belief.

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FX Weekly Preview: Europe Moves to the Center Ring

2019-01-14

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2019-01-14

In recent weeks, the macro story focused on the shifting outlook for Fed policy and the Sino-American trade relationship. There is unlikely to be further progress on either issue in the week ahead. The Fed won't raise interest rates until toward the middle of the year at the earliest.

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Concerns about Italy have not gone away

2019-01-14

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2019-01-14

Italian Real GDP Growth and Surveys, Q1 2012-Q1 2018
Rome and Brussels reached a compromise on the Italian government’s budget plans last month. But there are plenty of reasons for thinking this will be a challenging year for Italy.After battling for more than two months over a 2019 budget plan defiantly non-compliant with the EU fiscal rules, Rome and Brussels struck a last-minute agreement in December that avoided opening an Excessive Deficit Procedure (EDP).

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Lenders pay to lend money to Switzerland

2019-01-14

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2019-01-14

On 28 December 2018, Italy issued government bonds maturing in 2028 at an effective interest rate of 2.7%1. Interest rates like this combined with the scale of Italian public debt (157% of GDP) mean Italian taxpayers spend more on public debt interest than they do on education. In 2015, Italy spent 4.1% of GDP on public debt interest and only 2.8% of GDP on education.

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Where Will You Be Seated at the Banquet of Consequences?

2019-01-14

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2019-01-14

Ownership Society
To get a good seat at the banquet of consequences, the owner of capital has to shift his/her capital into scarce forms for which there is demand. The Banquet of Consequences is being laid out, and so the question is: where will you be seated? The answer depends on two dynamics I've mentioned many times: what types of capital you own and the asymmetries of our economy.

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UK Politicians remain stuck in the mire

2019-01-13

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2019-01-13

Brexit - Simplified view of possibilities ahead
Next week’s vote on the divorce deal is likely to be defeated, and there is precious little time for an alternative before the Brexit deadline in March.The British parliamentary vote on Theresa May’s EU divorce deal will be on 15 January. The deal is likely to be rejected, as there has been little progress since December, when a first vote was called off for lack of support.

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Nestlé now Europe’s most valuable company

2019-01-13

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2019-01-13

Volatile markets have been reshuffling the ranking of the world’s most valuable companies. Over the course of the last six months, Nestlé overtook Royal Dutch Shell to become Europe’s most valuable company. At the end of June 2018, Royal Dutch Shell had Europe’s highest market capitalisation (US$ 293 billion), making it the world’s 13th most valuable company, while Nestlé ranked 21st globally, with a market capitalisation of US$ 233 billion.

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Rate of Change

2019-01-13

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2019-01-13

Labor Curves
We’ve got to change our ornithological nomenclature. Hawks become doves because they are chickens underneath. Doves became hawks for reasons they don’t really understand. A fingers-crossed policy isn’t a robust one, so there really was no reason to expect the economy to be that way.

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Germany is Stagnating

2019-01-12

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2019-01-12

Germany Industrial Production and Manufacturing PMI, 2012 - 2018
Sagging industrial production and confidence figures point to weak Q4 GDP. German industrial production (including construction) fell by 1.9% month-on-month in November, extending the sector’s decline to five out the six last prints. Year on year, industrial production was down by 4.6%, the worst performance since November 2009.

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Swiss government ups probe into Pilatus-Saudi deal

2019-01-12

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2019-01-12

A Swiss aircraft manufacturer may have broken the law through part of a contract signed with Saudi Arabia. The foreign affairs ministry has begun a deeper investigation. Tasked with helping to maintain military training aircraft, 12 Pilatus employees are working in the Saudi capital, Riyadh. Swiss companies are legally obliged to report any activity with foreign armies.

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Two Takeaways from ECB Record

2019-01-12

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2019-01-12

The record of the ECB's December meeting was released, and there are two takeaways. The first is that officials may have been more concerned with the deteriorating situation than they let on at the time. Apparently, paring near-term growth forecasts was seen as a sufficient signal that risks were increasing. This allowed Draghi to maintain the "broadly balanced" risk assessment.

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2019 Outlook

2019-01-12

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2019-01-12

A discussion of the outlook for 2019 in the markets and the economy by Alhambra CEO Joe Calhoun and the Head of Alhambra Global Investment Research Jeff Snider.

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FX Daily, January 11: Trade Optimism and the Recovery in Oil Boosts Risk Appetites

2019-01-11

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2019-01-11

Overview:  Optimism on trade talks between the US and China coupled with the biggest rally in WTI in two years (11%+) have helped keep the equity market recovery intact. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index rose today, the eighth time in the past ten sessions, while the Dow Jones Stoxx 600 in Europe is closing in on its second consecutive weekly advance. 

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…And Get Bigger

2019-01-11

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2019-01-11

Germany Industrial Production, Jan 2007 - 2019
Just as there is gradation for positive numbers, there is color to negative ones, too. On the plus side, consistently small increments marked by the infrequent jump is never to be associated with a healthy economy let alone one that is booming. A truly booming economy is one in which the small positive numbers are rare. The recovery phase preceding the boom takes that to an extreme.

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Question of the week: do we still need a standard retirement age?

2019-01-11

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2019-01-11

Reaching the official retirement age1 is an important milestone for many people. Some look forward to it while others dread it. Some dreading it would prefer to continue working either because they enjoy their work or would like the extra income. Some feel they are being systematically and unfairly labelled too old to work.

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