Tag Archive: Hong Kong

FX Daily, November 21: Markets Hear What it Wants from China’s Chief Negotiator, but HK maybe New Obstacle

2019-11-21

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2019-11-21

Overview: The strongest signs to date that even phase one of a US-China trade deal is proving elusive helped spur the risk-off mood that had already been emerging. The S&P 500 fell by the most in a month (~-0.40%) yesterday, closing the gap from last week we had noted was the risk, and follow-through selling was seen in Asia Pacific and Europe.

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FX Daily, November 18: Sterling Shines in Subdued Start to the New Week

2019-11-18

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2019-11-18

Overview: Equities in Europe and the US look to extend their six-week rally, while the MSCI Asia Pacific Index gets back on the winning way after stumbling last week. Despite the escalation of the conflict in Hong Kong, the Hang Seng rose 1.35% to lead the region and recoup a chunk of last week's 4.8% slump. The Dow Jones Stoxx 600 puts the European benchmark within spitting distance of the four-year high set recently.

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FX Daily, November 15: Market Runs with US Line that US-China Deal is Close

2019-11-15

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2019-11-15

Comments by US presidential adviser Kudlow playing up the prospects of a trade agreement between the US and China, with other reports suggesting a key call be held today, is helping to underpin sentiment into the weekend. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index pared this week's loss today, with China the only main market not participating, despite the PBOC's unexpected injection of CNY200 bln of the Medium-Term Lending Facility.

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FX Daily, November 7: Trade Optimism Boosts Sentiment but Weighs on the Dollar

2019-11-07

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2019-11-07

Indications that a phase one agreement between the US and China would include rolling back some existing tariffs is boosting risking appetites, sending stocks higher, and pushing up yields. However, this appears to be simply a restating of China's views rather than a new breakthrough. The dollar is paring its recent gains. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index rose for the fifth time in six sessions to reach its best level since August 2018.

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FX Daily, October 23: Markets Lack Much Conviction, Await Fresh Developments

2019-10-23

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2019-10-23

Overview: UK Prime Minister Johnson is neither dead in a ditch as he said he would prefer to be than request an extension of Brexit, nor will the UK leave the EU at the end of the month. Yesterday's vote rejected the attempt to fast-track the legislation needed to support the divorce agreement. It all but ensures that such a delay will be forthcoming.

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FX Daily, October 11: Nothing Like Approaching the Edge to Focus the Minds

2019-10-11

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2019-10-11

Overview: As the edge of the abyss is approached in three distinct areas, there is hope that victory can be snatched from the jaws of defeat. US-China trade talks continue today, and there is hope of a small deal that could lead to the US not hiking tariffs next week. A shift in the UK toward a free-trade agreement with the EU seems to have opened fertile ground in negotiations that could still avoid a no-deal Brexit.

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FX Daily, October 3: Shades of Q4 18?

2019-10-03

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2019-10-03

Overview:  Disappointing economic data again drove US equities lower, which in turn carried into Asia Pacific activity. Losses were recorded throughout the region, with the notable exception of Hong Kong. The Nikkei and Australia's ASX were off by 2%. After its largest losing session of the year (-2.7%) yesterday, Europe's Dow Jones Stoxx 600 continues to trade heavily.

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FX Daily, October 2: Greenback Shows Resiliency, Stocks Don’t

2019-10-02

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2019-10-02

Shockingly poor ISM data sent shivers through the market on Tuesday and hand the S&P 500 its biggest loss in five weeks and took the shine off the greenback. The S&P 500 reached a five-day high before reversing course and cast a pall over today's activity.  All the markets were lower in Asia Pacific, with China and India closed for holidays.

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FX Daily, September 26: Greenback Remains Firm

2019-09-26

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2019-09-26

Overview: A compelling narrative for yesterday's disparate price action is lacking. A flight to safety, which is a leading interpretation, does not explain the weakness in the yen, gold, or US Treasuries. Month- and quarter-end portfolio and hedge adjustments may be at work, but the risk is that it is a black box: is difficult to verify and lends itself to misuse as a catch-all explanation.  Nevertheless, the rise in US equities yesterday helped...

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FX Daily, September 04: HK Concession and Better EMU PMI Overshadows Self-Inflicted Trade and Brexit Woes

2019-09-04

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2019-09-04

Risk appetites have been bolstered by three developments. The UK appears to have taken a tentative step away from leaving the EU without a deal. Hong Kong's Chief Executive Lam has agreed to formally withdraw the controversial extradition measure that had been suspended.

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Hong Kong unrest

2019-07-11

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2019-07-11

Gini Coefficient of Selected Countries / Regions
The extradition bill is 'dead' but political turmoil is not over yet.Since early June, a series of large-scale demonstrations took place in Hong Kong in protest of proposed legislation that would allow extradition of criminal suspects to certain jurisdictions, including mainland China.

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FX Daily, June 17: Quiet Start to Big Week

2019-06-17

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2019-06-17

Overview: The global capital markets are off to a subdued start to what promises to be a busy week, featuring the FOMC, BOE, BOJ meetings, and the flash June PMIs. Investors also expect some signal whether Presidents Trump and Xi will at the G20 meeting later this month. Asian equities were narrowly mixed.

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Emerging Markets: What Changed

2018-04-14

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2018-04-14

Hong Kong Monetary Authority intervened to defend the HKD peg. Moody’s upgraded Indonesia by a notch to Baa2 with a stable outlook. MAS tightened policy by adjusting the slope of its S$NEER trading band up “slightly.” Hungary Prime Minister Orban won a fourth term for his Fidesz party. Poland central bank Governor said it’s possible that the next move will be a rate cut. Russia outlined a range of potential retaliatory measures in response to US...

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US Imports Don’t Quite Match Chinese Exports

2018-04-12

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2018-04-12

US Trade Balance, Jan 2014 - 2018
In early 2015, a contract dispute between dockworkers’ unions and 29 ports on the West Coast of the US escalated into what was a slowdown strike. Cargoes piled up especially at some of the largest facilities like those in Oakland, LA, and Long Beach, threatening substantial economic costs far and away from just those directly involved. Each side predictably blamed the other for it.

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China’s Questionable Start to 2018

2018-03-16

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2018-03-16

China Industrial Production, Feb 1999 - 2018
The Chinese government reported estimates for Industrial Production, Retail Sales, and Fixed Asset Investment (FAI) for both January and February 2018. The National Bureau of Statistics prepares and calculates China’s major economic statistics in this manner at the beginning of each year due to the difficulties created by calendar effects (New Year Golden Week).

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China Exports: Trump Tariffs, Booming Growth, or Tainted Trade?

2018-03-11

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2018-03-11

China Exports, Jan 2008 - Jan 2018
China’s General Administration of Customs reported that Chinese exports to all other countries were in February 2018 an incredible 44.5% more than they were in February 2017. Such a massive growth rate coming now has served to intensify the economic boom narrative.

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Central Bank Transparency, Or Doing Deliberate Dollar Deals With The Devil

2018-01-25

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2018-01-25

Hong Kong HKD, Jul 2012 - Jan 2018
The advent of open and transparent central banks is a relatively new one. For most of their history, these quasi-government institutions operated in secret and they liked it that way. As late as October 1993, for example, Alan Greenspan was testifying before Congress intentionally trying to cloud the issue as to whether verbatim transcripts of FOMC meetings actually existed.

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Industrial production: The Chinese Appear To Be Rushed

2018-01-04

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2018-01-04

All China's Dollars, Aug 2016 - Jan 2018
While the Western world was off for Christmas and New Year’s, the Chinese appeared to have taken advantage of what was a pretty clear buildup of “dollars” in Hong Kong. Going back to early November, HKD had resumed its downward trend indicative of (strained) funding moving again in that direction (if it was more normal funding, HKD wouldn’t move let alone as much as it has). China’s currency, however, was curiously restrained during that...

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