Tag Archive: Euro

FX Weekly Review, December 26 – 30: Dollar Correction Poised to Continue

The technical condition of the US dollar, which has been advancing through most of the Q4 16, has been deteriorating This led us to anticipate a consolidative or corrective phase.

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FX Weekly Review, December 19 – December 23: Assessment of the Dollar’s Technical Condition

The small adjustment to Fed’s anticipated path for the Fed funds target helped lift the US dollar to its highest level against the euro since 2003, and to ten-month highs against the Japanese yen. The graph shows that the dollar has improved by 25% against the euro, but only by 10% against CHF over the last 3 years.

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FX Weekly Review, December 12 – December 16: Fed Lifts Dollar, but Consolidation may be on Tap

The small adjustment to Fed’s anticipated path for the Fed funds target helped lift the US dollar to its highest level against the euro since 2003, and to ten-month highs against the Japanese yen. The graph shows that the dollar has improved by 25% against the euro, but only by 10% against CHF over the last 3 years.

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FX Weekly Review, December 05 – December 09: Dollar Bulls Running Out of Time to See Parity vs Euro in 2016

  Swiss Franc Currency Index The Swiss Franc index remained in a losing position compared to the dollar index. However since November 25, it has remained stable. Given that the ECB extended the QE period, the EUR/CHF has fallen to 1.0730 again.   USD/CHF The US dollar is finishing the year on a firm note.  It rose … Continue reading »

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FX Weekly Review, November 28 – December 02: CHF Index still at its 4% loss since U.S. Elections

The Swiss Franc index continued around its 4% loss since the U.S. elections, while the US Dollar index had a 4% increase. The focus shifts to the ECB meeting, where participants are wary of a "hawkish ease".

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The War On Cash Is Happening Faster Than We Could Have Imagined

It’s happening faster than we could have ever imagined. Every time we turn around, it seems, there’s another major assault in the War on Cash. India is the most notable recent example– the embarrassing debacle a few weeks ago in which the government, overnight, “demonetized” its two largest denominations of cash, leaving an entire nation in chaos.

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FX Weekly Review, November 21 – November 25: Dollar Strength Losing Steam

After a three-week rally, the dollar bulls finally showed signs of tiring ahead of the weekend. At least against the Swiss Franc index, the dollar index could further advance. We had observed SNB interventions in the previous week that kept the euro mostly above 1.07.

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FX Weekly Review, November 14 – November 18: Best Dollar Weeks since Reagan

The US dollar has recorded its best two-week performance since Reagan was President. The weeks after Trump's election continue to see a weakening of the Swiss Franc, while the dollar index is on a steady rise. Still both the euro and the yen have seen worse performance than the Swiss Franc. The euro is currently under 1.07.

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European Central Bank gold reserves held across 5 locations. ECB will not disclose Gold Bar List.

The European Central Bank (ECB), creator of the Euro, currently claims to hold 504.8 tonnes of gold reserves. These gold holdings are reflected on the ECB balance sheet and arose from transfers made to the ECB by Euro member national central banks, mainly in January 1999 at the birth of the Euro. As of the end of December 2015, these ECB gold reserves were valued on the ECB balance sheet at market prices and amounted to €15.79 billion.

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Great Graphic: Euro-the Big Picture

Most economists are focusing on either US monetary policy or US fiscal policy. We focus on the policy mix. After the policy mix, politics is also a weigh on the euro. Our long-term call is for the euro to revisit the lows from 2000.

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FX Weekly Review, November 07 – November 11: The Trump Reflation Trade

The Swiss Franc Index rose sharply, shortly after the U.S. elections. But then the Trump reflation trade came. Trump may fulfills the wet dreams of many economists. With tax cuts he might extend the U.S. fiscal deficit up to 10% per year. This resulted in: Gains on U.S. stocks, inflows in U.S. Bonds, inflation hedges gold and Swiss Francs.

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FX Weekly Review, October 31 – November 04: Dollar at Crossroads

Swiss Franc Currency Index As visible in the graph, the Swiss Franc index recovered most of its losses against the US Dollar Index for the last 30 days. In the last 30 days, both the USD currency index and the CHF currency index have had a positive performance.

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FX Weekly Review, October 24-28: October Surprise Pushes Open Door

The Swiss Franc Index could recover some of the losses as compared to the US dollar index. Still the USD/CHF remains above 0.99. The US dollar rose against most of the major currencies last week, but the upside momentum appeared to be dissipating, even before the FBI's announcement about new Clinton emails. There are a few exceptions like the greenback's performance against the Japanese yen, Canadian dollar, and Swedish krona. The dollar made new...

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FX Weekly Review, October 17-21: Golden Cross in Dollar Index and Deadman’s Cross in the Euro

The Swiss Franc index had once again a bad stance against the dollar index. The CHF index was down 1%. The dollar index, however, improved. The US dollar rose against the major currencies last week, except the Australian and Canadian dollars.

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FX Weekly Review, October 10-14: Rates Still Key to Dollar’s Outlook

The Swiss Franc index had once again a bad stance against the dollar index. The CHF index was down 1%. The dollar index, however, improved. The US dollar rose against the major currencies last week, except the Australian and Canadian dollars.

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FX Weekly Review, October 03-07: Dollar Profits on Strong ISM Index

The Franc index lost considerably in the last week, in particularly in comparison to the dollar index. Reason was the exceptionally strong U.S. ISM Non-Manufacturing Index.

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FX Weekly Review, September 26-30: Dollar vulnerable at the Start of Q4, CHF collapses at Quarter End

The US dollar fell against most of the major currencies in Q3. The Norwegian krone was the best performer, gaining 4.4% against the greenback, followed by Aussie and Kiwi. The Swiss Franc collapsed on Friday at quarter end.

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FX Weekly Review, September 12 – 16: U.S. Dollar Resilience Despite Hawkish ECB and bad ISM

The dollar was surprisingly strong this week. This despite a more hawkish ECB, bad U.S. economic data in the ISM surveys.

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FX Weekly Review, September 05 – September 09: Dollar Proves Resilient as Market Rates Rise

It took the market a few days to overcome the shockingly poor non-manufacturing ISM (51.4 vs. 55.5). However, by the end of the week, the US dollar bulls had regained the upper end.

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What did the SNB do to EURCHF options markets?

The Swiss National Bank made G10 FX a lot more fun to watch today. One interesting thing is how the options markets responded. Via Jared Woodard of BGC, here’s a chart comparing the move in one-week implied volatility in the exchange rate between the...

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