Tag Archive: Euro

Is Gold Starting to Behave Itself?

Gold is doing what it is supposed to do!  Equity markets are tumbling, “NASDAQ 100 Rout Erases $1.5 Trillion in Market Value in 3 Days” reads one Bloomberg headline.

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Synchronizing Chinese Prices (and consequences)

It isn’t just the vast difference between Chinese consumer prices and those in the US or Europe, China’s CPI has been categorically distinct from China’s PPI, too. That distance hints at the real problem which the whole is just now beginning to confront, having been lulled into an inflationary illusion made up from all these things.

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Greenback Softens Ahead of CPI

Overview: It appears that investors have become more concerned about growth prospects and less about inflation in recent days. The US 10-year yield that had flirted with 3.20% at the start of the week is now around 2.93%.

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What Really ‘Raises’ The Rising ‘Dollar’

It’s one of those things which everyone just accepts because everyone says it must be true. If the US$ is rising, what else other than the Federal Reserve. In particular, the Fed has to be raising rates in relation to other central banks; interest rate differentials.

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Weekly Market Pulse: Welcome Back To The Old Normal

Stagflation. It’s a word that strikes fear in the hearts of investors, one that evokes memories – for some of us – of bell bottoms, disco, and Jimmy Carter’s American malaise. The combination of weak growth and high inflation is the worst of all worlds, one that required a transformational leader and a cigar-chomping central banker to defeat the last time it came around.

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Expect the Unexpected from the Fed

It has been a rough week in most markets with both equities and bonds declining sharply. Tech stocks have been pummeled with many ‘big names’ plunging more than 50% (from their 52-week high). Some of the bigger names include Zoom Video -75%, PayPal -73%, Netflix -72%, Meta Platforms (Facebook), -53%.

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Flash PMIs Play Second Fiddle to US PCE Deflator and Accelerating Inflation

The flash November PMIs would be the main focus in the week ahead if it were more normal times.  But these are not normal times, and growth prospects are not the key driver of the investment climate.  This quarters' growth is largely baked into the cake.  The world's three largest economies, the US, China, and Japan, are likely to accelerate for different reasons in Q4 from Q3.  Europe is the weak sibling, and growth in the eurozone and UK may slow...

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Cool Video: CNBC-Asia–Brexit, Sterling, the Euro, and Dollar

I had the privilege to join Sri Jegarajah at CNBC Asia at the start of today's Asia Pacific session.  We had a broad chat about the dollar, Brexit, and the euro.  He gave me the opportunity to sketch out my views:1.  The dollar's entered a cyclical decline, and the "twin deficit" issue will likely frame the narrative. 

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Speculative Positioning in Selected Currency Futures

With the media playing up the US dollar's negatives, one would think speculators are short the greenback like there is no tomorrow. Yet a review of the Commitment of Traders report that covers the week through last Tuesday, August 4, shows that this is not really the case.

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Lagarde Channels Past Self As To Japan Going Global

As France’s Finance Minister, Christine Lagarde objected strenuously to Ben Bernanke’s second act. Hinted at in August 2010, QE2 was finally unleashed in November to global condemnation. Where “trade wars” fill media pages today, “currency wars” did back then. The Americans were undertaking beggar-thy-neighbor policies to unfairly weaken the dollar.

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European Economy: A Time Recession

Eurostat confirmed earlier today that Europe has so far avoided recession. At least, it hasn’t experienced what Economists call a cyclical peak. During the third quarter of 2019, Real GDP expanded by a thoroughly unimpressive +0.235% (Q/Q). This was a slight acceleration from a revised +0.185% the quarter before.

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Cool Video: Thoughts on ECB

A few hours after the ECB announced a new package of monetary accommodation, I joined a discussion on CNBC Asia with Nancy Hungerford and Sir Jegarajah.  Here is a clip of part of our discussion. I make two points.  The first is about the euro's price action.  What impressed me about it was that the euro posted an outside up day, trading on both sides of the previous day's range and closing above its high.

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Some Brief European Leftovers

Some further odds and ends of European data. Beginning with Continent-wide Industrial Production. Germany is leading the system lower, but it’s not all just Germany. And though manufacturing and trade are thought of as secondary issues in today’s services economies, the GDP estimates appear to confirm trade in goods as still an important condition and setting for all the rest.

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Euro slides against the dollar on ECB dovishness

The euro has declined further against the dollar but should strengthen over next 12 monthsThe euro fell to a 20-month low against the US dollar following the European Central Bank’s (ECB) March policy meeting, given the revised forward guidance that suggests that the interest rate differential is unlikely to provide much upside to the euro in the next few months.

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Weekly Technical Analysis: 04/06/2018 – USD/CHF, EUR/JPY, GBP/USD, AUD/USD, WTI

The USDCHF pair managed to break 0.9850 level and closed the daily candlestick below it, which supports the continuation of our bearish overview efficiently in the upcoming period, paving the way to head towards 0.9723 level as a next station, noting that the EMA50 supports the expected decline, which will remain valid for today conditioned by the price stability below 0.9870.

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The Currency of PMI’s

Markit Economics released the flash results from several of its key surveys. Included is manufacturing in Japan (lower), as well as composites (manufacturing plus services) for the United States and Europe. Within the EU, Markit offers details for France and Germany.

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Weekly Technical Analysis: 21/05/2018 – USD/JPY, EUR/USD, GBP/JPY, USD/CAD, USD/CHF

The USDCHF pair reaches the key support 0.9955 now, and as we mentioned in our last report, breaking this level will confirm completing the double top pattern that appears on the chart, to rally towards our negative targets that begin at 0.9900 and extend to 0.9850. Therefore, we will continue to suggest the bearish trend supported by the negative pressure formed by the EMA50, unless the price managed to rally upwards to breach 1.0055 level and...

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Weekly Technical Analysis: 14/05/2018 – USD/JPY, EUR/USD, EUR/JPY, GBP/USD, USD/CHF

The USDCHF pair provided positive trading yesterday to test 1.0000 level and settles around it, and as long as the price is below this level, our bearish overview will remain valid, noting that our next target is located at 0.9900, while breaching 1.0000 followed by 1.0055 levels represent the key to regain the main bullish trend again. Expected trading range for today is between 0.9920 support and 1.0055 resistance.

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Weekly Technical Analysis: 07/05/2018 – USD/JPY, EUR/USD, GBP/USD, Gold

The USDCHF pair’s recent trades are confined within mew minor bearish channel that we believe it forms bullish flag pattern, thus, the price needs to breach 1.0035 to activate the positive effect of this pattern followed by rallying towards our waited target at 1.0100. Therefore, we will continue to suggest the bullish trend supported by the EMA50, unless we witnessed clear break and hold below 1.0000. Expected trading range for today is between...

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Weekly Technical Analysis: 23/04/2018 – USD/JPY, EUR/USD, GBP/USD, AUD/USD, WTI oil futures

The USDCHF pair touched the bullish channel’s resistance that appears on the chart, and the price might be forced to show some temporary decline to test the support base formed above 0.9790 before resuming the rise again. In general, we will continue to suggest the bullish trend supported by the EMA50, depending on the organized trading inside the mentioned bullish channel, noting that our next target is located at 0.9900, while holding above...

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