Tag Archive: debt

El-Erian: The New Normal



Read More »

European Banking Assets and Debt

Still in summer 2013, too much debt was an issue. By 2014 things have changed: Europeans have too many savings.

Read More »

Who is the Biggest Debt Time Bomb: Japan, France, the UK or the United States?

Some must reads: According to the Economist the biggest time bomb in the euro zone crisis is France. We wonder why the United States and Britain, that have same weak trade balances, the same weak competitiveness and a debt overhang, shouldn't have a problem? Just because France must do austerity according to the German Fiscal Compact wish, and the US and Britain do not need to do this? Or like Ray Dalio called it, are the US and Britain...

Read More »

The Balance Sheet Recession: UK Q2 Housing Equity Injection Largest Since Q2 2011

The American-Taiwanese economist Richard Koo, is the chief-economist of the Nomura Research Institute. In his theory of the Balance Sheet Recession he distinguishes between the “Yang” phase of the economy and the “Yin” phase (the so-called “balance sheet recession”). In “Yang” times companies want to increase profit and people consume a big part of their pay …

Read More »

Don’t Sell Economic Stability to Buy Economic Growth, Warns Tomáš Sedláček

Don’t sell economic stability to buy economic growth,” warned Tomáš Sedláček, chief macroeconomic strategist at CSOB Bank. Sedláček’s unconventional view is that our problem is not lack of growth but too much of it. See more at the

Read More »

The Eurozone crisis between euro-morons and zombie-bankers



Read More »

IMF World Economic Outlook

Alexander Gloy is founder and president of Lighthouse Investment Management       The IMF’s (International Monetary Fund) “World Economic Outlook”, a slim 250-page piece, came out. Some excerpts: Substantial reductions in estimated output (GDP) growth for 2013 for all major countries:   Unemployment in the Euro-Area (“EA”) is now expected to rise above the level …

Read More »

The “Beautiful” De-Leveraging

A beautiful deleveraging balances the three options. In other words, there is a certain amount of austerity, there is a certain amount of debt restructuring, and there is a certain amount of printing of money. When done in the right mix, it isn’t dramatic. It doesn’t produce too much deflation or too much depression. There is slow growth, but it is positive slow growth. At the same time, ratios of debt-to-incomes go down. That’s a beautiful...

Read More »

All roads lead to a euro zone break-up

For us all roads lead to a euro zone break-up and multiple sovereign defaults.   Our reasoning can be summarized as follows: Equities are worthless when associated debt becomes encumbered (risk capital takes the  first loss). Equity is not an asset; it is merely the remainder that is left over once debt is subtracted from …

Read More »

Guest Post: Six Reasons Why Italy May Exit the Euro Before Spain; Ultimate Occupy Movement

Six Reasons Why Italy May Exit Before Spain 1) Rise of the Five Star Movement 2) 44% of Italians view the euro negatively, only 30% favorably. That is biggest negative spread in the eurozone. In Spain more view the euro positively than negative, albeit by a small 4 percentage point spread.

Read More »

Wolfgang Münchau, FT: Merkel was the winner of the Euro summit

  Wolfgang Münchau endorsed many of our arguments Wolfgang Münchau, Financial Times, has endorsed many of our arguments of our Friday's opinion  about the Euro summit where we stated that there was nothing really new. Münchau even claims that "The real victor in Brussels was Merkel."

Read More »

Can Merkel stop the Eurobonds ? German “Der Focus” on Eurobonds

  The German "Der Focus",one of the most successful weekly magazines, titles "Can Merkel stop the Eurobonds ?" Der Focus claims that Eurobonds have the following issues:

Read More »

Italy: About the Hypocrisy of Politicians and the Blindness of the English-Speaking Financial Papers

Just a little wrap-up of two tweets read in 5 minutes, to which I finally added a bit more out of my recent Tweets. One Tweet: The British finance minister Osborne has emphasized that the euro zone needs to protect its peripheral economies. “The whole of Europe needs to become more competitive and productive. That …

Read More »

JP Morgan: Reflections on negative interest rates in Switzerland

Negative interest rates naturally attract attention given Switzerland’s use of these between 1972-1978.

Read More »

Credit Crisis Could Lift Yen, Franc (July 2008)

Jul. 31st 2008 Extracts from the history of the Swiss franc (July 2008).   As the credit crisis has unfolded, the Dollar has remained (relatively) strong, especially considering the deteriorating state of its economy. The reason for this, of course, is that in times of crisis, investors flock to perceived safe havens, such as the …

Read More »