Tag Archive: $CNY

FX Daily, January 15: New Phase Begins with UK Vote

2019-01-15

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2019-01-15

Several of the equity benchmarks are flirting with six-week highs, including MSCI Asia Pacific Index and the Emerging Markets Index. The Dow Jones Stoxx 600 is trying to extend its advancing streak for a third week, something not done since July.

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FX Daily, January 14: Dismal Chinese Trade Data Sets Tone

2019-01-14

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2019-01-14

Overview:  China's exports and imports were weaker than expected, though the trade surplus swelled to its widest in a couple of years. The implications have undermined equities and weighed on risk appetites more broadly. Nearly all the Asia-Pacific markets were lower except Japan and the Dow Jones Stoxx 60o in Europe is off 0.5% near midday to snap a four-day advance.

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FX Weekly Preview: Europe Moves to the Center Ring

2019-01-14

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2019-01-14

In recent weeks, the macro story focused on the shifting outlook for Fed policy and the Sino-American trade relationship. There is unlikely to be further progress on either issue in the week ahead. The Fed won't raise interest rates until toward the middle of the year at the earliest.

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FX Daily, January 11: Trade Optimism and the Recovery in Oil Boosts Risk Appetites

2019-01-11

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2019-01-11

Overview:  Optimism on trade talks between the US and China coupled with the biggest rally in WTI in two years (11%+) have helped keep the equity market recovery intact. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index rose today, the eighth time in the past ten sessions, while the Dow Jones Stoxx 600 in Europe is closing in on its second consecutive weekly advance. 

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FX Weekly Preview: For the Millionth Time, Markets Exaggerate

2019-01-07

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2019-01-07

The S&P 500 fell more than 12% in a few weeks. The 10-year Treasury yield fell nearly 40 bp. There were cries that the sky was falling. A recession is imminent, we are warned by prognosticators. The Fed went ahead and raised interest rates on March 21, 2018, and the S&P 500 proceeded to gap lower the next day and continued to sell-off the following day. Investors did not like the unanimous decision.

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A Word on Q3 COFER-It Might not be What You Think

2019-01-02

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2019-01-02

Foreign Exchange Reserves by Currency, Q1 2016 - Q3 2018
The IMF offers the most authoritative report on central bank reserves on a quarterly basis with a quarter lag.  The report, the Currency Composition of Official Foreign Exchange Reserves (COFER), covering Q318 has been released.  It may be have been overlooked during the holidays, but if and when the pundits see it, the leading takeaway is that the dollar's share of global reserves fell below 62% for the first time five years.

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The Relevant Word Is ‘Decline’

2018-12-18

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2018-12-18

China Industrial Production, Nov 1998 - 2018
The English language headline for China’s National Bureau of Statistics’ press release on November 2018’s Big 3 was, National Economy Maintained Stable and Sound Momentum of Development in November. For those who, as noted yesterday, are wishing China’s economy bad news so as to lead to the supposed good news of a coordinated “stimulus” response this was itself a bad news/good news situation.

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FX Daily, December 17: Markets Quiet to Start Fed Week

2018-12-17

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2018-12-17

Activity in the global capital markets is subdued as investors move to the sidelines as the year-end approaches. The Federal Reserve headlines the holiday week that also features a Bank of England a Bank of Japan meeting. Only the Fed is expected to change rates.

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The Dollar and Its Rivals

2018-12-05

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2018-12-05

I was in graduate school, studying American foreign policy when I stumbled on Riccardo Parboni's "The Dollar and Its Rivals." This thin volume showed how the foreign exchange market was the arena in which capitalist rivalries were expressed. More than any single book, it set me on a more than 30-year path.

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China’s Global Slump Draws Closer

2018-12-04

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2018-12-04

China Manufacturing PMI, Caixin and Non-Manufacturing PMI, May 2010 - Nov 2018
By the time things got really bad, China’s economy had already been slowing for a long time. The currency spun out of control in August 2015, and then by November the Chinese central bank was in desperation mode. The PBOC had begun to peg SHIBOR because despite so much monetary “stimulus” in rate cuts and a lower RRR banks were hoarding RMB liquidity.

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FX Daily, November 29: Reluctant to Extend Dollar Losses

2018-11-29

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2018-11-29

Overview: The biggest US equity advance since Q1 has helped lift global markets today. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index rose for the fourth session, and nearly all the bourses in the region rallied with the notable exception of China and Hong Kong. Almost all the sectors in Europe are rallying but energy and real estate. US oil inventories rose three times more than expected and Putin expressed little support for fresh output cuts.

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FX Daily, November 23: Friday

2018-11-23

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2018-11-23

The US dollar is firmer against most of the major currencies. Japanese and Indian markets were closed for holidays and a weaker than expected flash EMU PMI helped keep the euro pinned near this week's lows. Although the EU seemed to thrown UK's embattled May a lifeline with some compromise wording in a draft declaration, the challenge remains the same--Parliament's approval.

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FX Daily, November 21: A Semblance of Stability Returns

2018-11-21

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2018-11-21

Yesterday's frenzy has burnt itself out for the moment. Equities began recovering in Asia after early losses. China, including Hong Kong, Singapore, and Thailand closed higher and European markets are recouping some of yesterday's decline. The Dow Jones Stoxx is trying to snap a five-day decline and is up a little more than 0.5% near midday.

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FX Daily, November 19: Does Monday’s Calm mean a Storm is Around the Corner?

2018-11-19

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2018-11-19

Overview: There is an uneasy calm in the global capital markets. Investors are digesting the weekend news, which includes the failure of APEC to issue a joint statement due to US-China tensions that we highlighted by dueling speeches by China President Xi and US Vice President Pence.

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FX Daily, November 16: Turning Brexit into a Dog’s Breakfast

2018-11-16

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2018-11-16

Overview: It is the height of irony or tragedy that what was offered as a non-binding referendum on UK's membership in the European Union to bring the country, or at least the Tory Party, together is the most destabilizing event since the UK unceremoniously quit the European Exchange Rate Mechanism more than a quarter of a century ago. 

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FX Daily, November 15: UK Political Drama Roils Sterling

2018-11-15

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2018-11-15

Overview: The resignation of the UK's Brexit negotiator after Prime Minister May had secured support from a majority of the cabinet sent sterling sharply lower.  Raab's resignation underscores the difficulty the Brexit agreement faces in the UK Parliament.  Sterling was hammered nearly 2.5 cents on the news and trade below $1.28.

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China’s Pooh Lesson

2018-11-14

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2018-11-14

Chinese Money 2001-2018
It’s one of those “nothing to see here” moments for Economists trying not to appreciate what’s really going on in China therefore the global economy. The slump in China’s automotive sector dragged on through October, with year-over-year sales down for the fourth straight month.

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FX Daily, November 13: Weak Turn-Around Tuesday

2018-11-13

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2018-11-13

Overview:  The US dollar has a heavier bias against most of the major and emerging markets currencies, but the pullback is shallow, and the greenback's underlying strength is still evident.  Asian equities were mixed.  Concern that Apple may be reducing orders weighed on suppliers, but news that China and US trade talks are resuming boosted sentiment, allowing Chinese stocks to recover helped lift the Australian and New Zealand dollars.

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The Future is Already Here–It is Just Not Evenly Distributed

2018-11-11

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2018-11-11

When William Gibson would say that "the future is already here-it is just not evenly distributed," he was referring to how wealth and location determine one's access to technological advances (the future). Yet it equally can apply to the US-Chinese relationship.

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FX Daily, November 09: Greenback Stabilizes at Higher Levels

2018-11-09

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2018-11-09

The US dollar's gains scored in the wake of the Fed's signal that will continue on course to gradually hike rates have been extended. Most emerging market currencies are lower as well.  Equity markets are heavy.  Bond yields in Europe and US are a little lower, with the exception of Italian bonds. 

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