Tag Archive: $AUD

FX Daily, February 02: A Note Ahead of US Jobs Report

2018-02-02

The US dollar is sporting a firmer profile against all the major currencies after weakening yesterday. Frequently, it seems the Australian dollar leads the other currencies, and we note that it is making a new low for the week today. Briefly, in Europe, it slipped below its 20-day moving (~$0.7985) average for the first time since December 13.

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FX Daily, February 01: Fed’s Hawkish Hold Keeps Dollar Consolidation Intact

2018-02-01

by Marc Chandler

2018-02-01

The Yellen Fed ended on a high note. She took over the reins the of Federal Reserve an implemented a strategic normalization process monetary policy, and helped engineer not only the first post-crisis rate hikes but also the beginning of unwinding its balance sheet. Most reckon she has done an admirable job at the Federal Reserve, not only in terms of the economic performance on her watch but also the nimble execution policy.

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FX Daily, January 24: Dollar Takes Another Leg Lower

2018-01-24

by Marc Chandler

2018-01-24

North American session sold into the dollar's upticks and Asia followed suit, taking the greenback to new multi-year lows against the euro and sterling while pushing it below the JPY110 level for the first time since last September. US trade action has become latest element of the narrative the seeks to explain the dollar's slide and the decoupling of the greenback from interest rates.

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Great Graphic: Is Aussie Cracking?

2018-01-24

by Marc Chandler

2018-01-24

The Australian dollar bottomed in early December $0.7500 after having tested $0.8100 a couple of times in September. Since early December, however, the Australian dollar appreciated by nearly 6.5%. As it tested the $0.8000 area, the momentum faded.

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FX Daily, January 23: Dollar Stabilizes Near Recent Lows

2018-01-23

by Marc Chandler

2018-01-23

The US dollar has come back better bid in late Asian activity. The session highlight was the BOJ meeting. BOJ maintained forecasts and policy. There was a small tweak to the inflation assessment, noting that prices were skewed to the downside, and said there was no change in inflation expectations. Last time it has said expectations were weakening. It also reiterated that there was no policy implication to the bond operations.

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FX Daily, January 22: Dollar Remains Heavy

2018-01-22

by Marc Chandler

2018-01-22

The US dollar closed last week on a firm note, but it has been unable to build on its gains to start the new week. News that Germany's SPD agreed to enter formal negotiations with Merkel's CDU/CSU alliance saw the euro open in Asia around a half a cent higher. However, sellers emerged near $1.2275 but seemed to lose their nerve as the pre-weekend low near $1.2215 was approached.

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FX Daily, January 19: Dollar Crushed as Government Shutdown Looms

2018-01-19

by Marc Chandler

2018-01-19

The US dollar is broadly lower as the momentum feeds on itself. Asia is leading the way. The Japanese yen, Taiwanese dollar, Malaysian Ringgit, and South Korean won are all around 0.45% higher. Asian shares also managed to shrug off the weakness seen in the US yesterday. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index advanced 0.7%. It is the sixth consecutive weekly gain. The dollar's drop comes as US yields reach levels now seen in year. The 10-year yield is at its...

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FX Daily, January 18: Currencies Consolidate After Chop Fest

2018-01-18

by Marc Chandler

2018-01-18

The US dollar rallied in the North American afternoon yesterday and the timing coincided with the release of the Fed's Beige Book that saw several districts report wage and price pressures. The US 10-year yield moved toward toward 2.60%, and helped by speculation that as US companies repatriate earnings kept abroad that they may have to liquidate the investments, some of which are thought to be in Treasuries.

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FX Daily, January 11: Capital Markets Calmer, Greenback Consolidates

2018-01-11

by Marc Chandler

2018-01-11

As market participants were just getting their sea legs back after the start of the year, it was hit by a one-two punch of ideas that BOJ policy was turning less accommodative and that Chinese officials were wary of adding to their Treasury holdings. Then late yesterday, a news wire reported that Canada suspected the US was going to withdraw from NAFTA.

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FX Daily, January 08: Dollar Posts Modest Upticks to Start the New Week

2018-01-08

by Marc Chandler

2018-01-08

The US dollar is enjoying modest but broad-based gains after trading firmly at the end of last week despite the slightly disappointing jobs report. The dollar's upticks are understood to be corrective in nature. The Canadian dollar appears to be protected by the increased prospects of a rate hike next week after its stellar employment report.

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FX Daily, January 04: Greenback Continues to Consolidate Recent Losses

2018-01-04

by Marc Chandler

2018-01-04

The US dollar is sporting a softer profile across the board, though remaining largely in the ranges seen over the past couple of sessions. At the same time, the news stream suggests that the global synchronized growth cycle strengthened late last year and is bound to carry over into the New Year.

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The Past is Not Passed: 2017 Spills into 2018

2018-01-03

by Marc Chandler

2018-01-03

The New Year may have begun in fact, but in practice, full participation may return only after the release of US employment data on January 5. The macroeconomic and policy tables have been set, though interpolating from the Overnight Index Swaps market, there is 45% chance the Bank of Canada hikes rates at its policy meeting near the middle of the month.

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FX Daily, December 27: What Happened on Boxing Day?

2017-12-27

by Marc Chandler

2017-12-27

There were several developments on the day after Christmas, while many markets remained closed and investors sidelined. One of the most important developments was the euro's complete recovery from the flash crash of nearly three percent on Christmas day in the North American time zone.

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FX Daily, December 19: US Equities Set Pace, While Greenback Consolidates Inside Monday’s Ranges

2017-12-19

by Marc Chandler

2017-12-19

US tax changes appear to be providing fuel for the year-end advance that has carried the major indices to new record highs. The coattails are a bit short, and while global equity markets are firm, they are unable to match the strength of US. Despite a heavier tone in Japan, Taiwan, and Korea, the MSCI Asia Pacific Index edged higher for the second session but remains around one percent below the record highs set in late November.

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FX Daily, December 15: Premium for Dollar-Funding is not Helping Greenback Very Much

2017-12-15

by Marc Chandler

2017-12-15

The cross-currency basis swap continues to lurch in the dollar's direction, especially against the euro, and yet the dollar is not drawing much support from it. The increasing cost reflects pressure for the year-end and does not appear to reflect systemic issues. Dollar auction by the ECB and BOJ do not show any strain. The dollar has a downside bias today against most of the major currencies. And is what is true of the day is true for the week....

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FX Daily, December 11: Dollar Mixed to Start the Week, While Equities Firm

2017-12-11

by Marc Chandler

2017-12-11

The US dollar is narrowly mixed in relatively quiet activity. Year-end adjustment is well underway, and the news stream is light to start the week that sees more than a dozen central bank meetings. There is little doubt in the market that the Federal Reserve will hike rates for the third time this year at mid-week.

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FX Daily, December 07: Equities and Oil Stabilize

2017-12-07

by Marc Chandler

2017-12-07

Global equities are stabilizing today after the recent downside pressure. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index snapped an eight-day slump with a 0.4% gain, led by a rebound in Tokyo and India. European markets are firm, with the Dow Jones Stoxx 600 up around 0.25% near midday in London. All sectors are higher but telecom and real estate are performing best, while energy and health care are laggards.

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FX Daily, December 06: Equity Slump Continues, Lifts Bonds, Bolsters Yen

2017-12-06

by Marc Chandler

2017-12-06

The swoon in equities, perhaps sparked by a rotation spurred by potential US tax changes, is continuing today. It is providing a risk-off mood, which is expressed in the foreign exchange market as a stronger yen. The most compelling answer of yen strength is not that investors are buying yen as a haven.

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FX Daily, December 05: Sterling Sold on Negotiating Snafu, Aussie Bounces on Retail Sales and RBA

2017-12-05

by Marc Chandler

2017-12-05

The US dollar is confined to narrow ranges against the euro and yen, straddling unchanged levels in the Asian session and the European morning. The action in elsewhere. The British pound is the weakest of the majors, paring 0.4% against the greenback, though around $1.3425, it can hardly be considered weak. A month ago, sterling was a few cents lower. Still, its gains reflected two things: broader dollar weakness and optimism on Brexit talks.

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FX Daily, December 04: US Dollar Marked Higher After Senate Passes Tax Reform

2017-12-04

by Marc Chandler

2017-12-04

The US dollar opened higher in Asia and retained those gains through the European morning. The greenback has recouped most of the pre-weekend losses recorded in the wake of the indictment of a fourth former Trump Administration official by the special investigation into Russia's involvement in last year's election. However, two weekend developments seemed to blunt the impact of the guilty plea and admission of cooperation.

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