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Great Graphic: Divergence is Still the Euro Driver

2015-12-08

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2015-12-08

This remains one of my favorite Great Graphics that illustrate the divergence theme that I think is the main driver of the euro-dollar exchange rate.  Composed on Bloomberg, it shows two time series.  The first (white line) shows the German two-y...

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Great Graphic: Canadian Growth and Rate Expectations

2015-12-01

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2015-12-01

Canada reported its monthly GDP estimate for September, and at the same time, provided its first estimate of Q3 GDP.   The Great Graphic, created on Bloomberg, shows both time series. The monthly GDP is depicted by the yellow line and the quart...

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Great Graphic: Decline of U.S. Participation Rate Explained

2015-11-30

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2015-11-30

The decline in the labor force participation rate helps explain the substantial decline in the US unemployment rate over the past couple of years.  That decline has helped bring the Federal Reserve to the point that a December rate hike is thought to be extremely likely barring a significant disappointment at the end of the …

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Great Graphic: US 2-Year Premium over Japan and Germany

2015-11-25

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2015-11-25

This Great Graphic was composed on Bloomberg.  It shows two time series.  The yellow line shows the premium the US pays over Germany for two-year money.  The white line shows the premium the US pays over Japan for two-year money.   The premiums have risen sharply since mid-October and today are at new multi-year highs. … Continue...

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Great Graphic: Canadian Dollar and the Two-Year Rate Differential

2015-11-23

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2015-11-23

The Canadian dollar is more than a petro currency.    It is also subject to the same forces of divergence that have lifted the US dollar more broadly.  Since the beginning of the year, the US two-year yield has risen 26 bp while Canada's two-year yield has fallen almost 39 bp. This Great Graphic, created on …

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Pure Gold and Soggy Dollars

2015-09-30

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2015-09-30

We’re going to be introducing some new formats. One of them is quick article links, with the good ones labelled Pure Gold and the bad ones labelled Soggy Dollars. Pure Gold When a Fed-induced boom turns to bust: “In the lynch-mob....

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Repo and Repo Markets

Figure 1: Repurchase agreement


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How Could the Fed Protect Us from Economic Waves?

Fed Protects Us From Waves
Mainstream economists tell us that the Federal Reserve protects us from economic waves, indeed from the business cycle itself. In their view, people naturally tend to go overboard and cause wild swings in both directions. Thus, we need an economic central planner to alternatively stimulate us and then take away the punch bowl. The very idea of centrally planning money and credit boggles the mind.

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What Happens When Credit Is Mispriced?

prices down
Keith Weiner explains what happens when credit is mispriced. The rich are privileged because they can profit on the volatility and the bubbles the cheap credit createes.

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Steve Keen Steering the Greek Hedge Fund into the Minsky Moment #Tsiprasfacts

tsipras facts


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Volckers Attack on Stagflation

volcker
In this chapter we describe how Volcker managed to defeat stagflation; he applied the monetarist models that had been applied successfully in Switzerland and Germany. Thanks to this effort, the dollar stopped its secular decline.

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America’s Nine Classes: The New Class Hierarchy

Eight of the nine classes are hidebound by conventions, neofeudal and neocolonial arrangements and a variety of false choices. There are many ways to slice and dice America's power/wealth hierarchy. The conventional class structure is divided along the lines of income, i.e. the wealthy, upper middle class, middle class, lower middle class and the poor.

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Russia, Europe, and the new international order

2014-04-11

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2014-04-11

putin vs. obama
By Josef Janning – 09 Apr 14 Via the European Council of Foreign Relations. The premise of an international order defined by the West and shared by the rest has been shown to be faulty. Ever since the Soviet Union fell apart and nationalism re-emerged as a divisive as well as cohesive factor in Eastern … Continue reading...

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7b) Major Schools of Economics

Free Market Economic Theories


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Minsky and Kindleberger

Costliest Banking Crisis


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Net Speculative Positions, Global Stock Markets, Week October 29

2012-10-29

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2012-10-29

cards
  Submitted by Mark Chandler, from marctomarkets.com   The US Dollar Index reached its best level in more than six weeks on Friday.  Yet it managed to only close a couple of ticks higher, as if warning short-term participants against ideas that a breakout is at hand.  This also appears to be the message of the …

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The “Beautiful” De-Leveraging

2012-09-23

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2012-09-23

A beautiful deleveraging balances the three options. In other words, there is a certain amount of austerity, there is a certain amount of debt restructuring, and there is a certain amount of printing of money. When done in the right mix, it isn’t dramatic. It doesn’t produce too much deflation or too much depression. There is slow growth, but it is positive slow growth. At the same time, ratios of debt-to-incomes go down. That’s a beautiful...

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It’s not simply QE3

2012-09-14

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2012-09-14

Fed Programs and Markets
Submitted by Mark Chandler, from marctomarkets.com The outcome of the FOMC meeting is not just a new round of quantitative easing, some might call it QE3. What the Fed announced represents a new chapter in its policy response. The first distinguishing aspect of its decision is the open-ended nature of it. While it has not indicated … Continue reading...

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Net Speculative Positions , Global Markets and Outlook, week from August 20

2012-08-19

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2012-08-19

Economist Markets by Aug15, 2012
Currency Positioning and Outlook, week from August 20 Submitted by Mark Chandler, from marctomarkets.com The market is like expectant parents who don’t know the gender of the fetus.   They know something big is around the corner, but they don’t have enough information to make some important decisions.  They can contemplate the future, but there …

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Net Speculative Positions and Technical Analysis,week from August 6

2012-08-06

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2012-08-06

Three player chess
Currency Positioning and Technical Analysis, week from August6 Submitted by Marc Chandler from MarctoMarkets.com The overall technical tone of the US dollar is suspect. During the last few months, it has been trending lower against the dollar-bloc currencies, Canadian and Australian dollars and the Mexican peso.  The greenback has trended higher against the euro and Swiss …

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