Category Archive: 1.) CHF

Main Author George Dorgan
George Dorgan
George Dorgan (penname) predicted the end of the EUR/CHF peg at the CFA Society and at many occasions on SeekingAlpha.com and on this blog. Several Swiss and international financial advisors support the site. These firms aim to deliver independent advice from the often misleading mainstream of banks and asset managers. George is FinTech entrepreneur, financial author and alternative economist. He speak seven languages fluently.
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Das Ende der Schweizer Sozialbürokratie dank bedingungslosem Grundeinkommen (BGE)



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Is the Swiss Franc Really so Expensive or is Swiss Consumption anemic?

global imbalances contributors historically
One of the most predictable consequences of the Swiss National Bank’s decision to stop suppressing the exchange rate between the franc and the euro was the whinging of Swiss exporters. That doesn’t mean the policy change was an error. If anything, it may help rebalance the Swiss economy away from its excessive dependence on exports towards greater levels of domestic consumption.

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End of EUR/CHF Peg

Selected essays on the end of the EUR/CHF peg

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Colin Lloyd on the end of the EUR CHF peg

Colin Llyod gives a detailed explanation of the end of the EUR/CHF peg on Seeking Alpha. Most extracts come from George Dorgan, on snbchf.com

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Why did the Swiss franc spike? Lack of Capital Outflows

There is a straightforward answer to the question in the headline: more money has been trying to get into Switzerland than get out, which didn’t affect the exchange rate as long as the Swiss National Bank bought foreign currency. As soon as they stop...

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End of Peg Buiter Critique

2015-01-25

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2015-01-25

In a Citi research note, Willem Buiter discusses the SNB’s decision to discontinue the exchange rate floor of the Swiss Franc vis-a-vis the Euro. His main points are: Buiter refers to his earlier work on removing the lower bound on nominal interest r...

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CHF Is No Safe-Haven, but a Safe Proxy for Global Economic Growth

In our view the Swiss franc is not a pure Safe-Haven, but a "Safe Proxy for Global Economic Growth". Global investors want to participate via the purchase of safe Swiss multi-nationals in global growth. This means inflows into Swiss franc denominated assets. Together with the big Swiss trade surplus, this implies a stronger franc. China stands for global economy, its slowing growth has a negative influence on the profits of Swiss multi-nationals...

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What Caused The Swiss Financial Tsunami? Three Reasons, One Trigger, One Chain Reaction

In this post we give our (Swiss) view for the financial tsunami on January 15. The SNB has preferred its secondary mandate, namely financial stability, and the elimination of risks on its own balance sheet caused by ECB QE. It will not obey its primary target, price inflation, for the next three to five years. While in the mid-term (5 -10 years) inflation should move up. Differing perceptions between Switzerland and the Anglophone world about...

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Death of an FX punter

2015-01-16

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2015-01-16

terriegym: Ive came back to my computer and Alpari have closed all my trades, loosing over $1000 off of my current balance, anyone got any idea what may have happened!!! they arent answering the phone!!

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The liquidity monster and FXCM

2015-01-16

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2015-01-16

As we have already pointed out about Thursday’s unprecedented Swiss franc move following the SNB’s announcement about removing its 1.20 euro level floor and introducing a -0.75 per cent interest rate regime, the real story to pay attention to is what...

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What did the SNB do to EURCHF options markets?

2015-01-15

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2015-01-15

The Swiss National Bank made G10 FX a lot more fun to watch today. One interesting thing is how the options markets responded. Via Jared Woodard of BGC, here’s a chart comparing the move in one-week implied volatility in the exchange rate between the...

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The SNB and the Russia/oil connection

2015-01-15

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2015-01-15

A quick post to collate a few side theories on the reasons, justifications and consequences of the SNB move. Simon Derrick at BNY Mellon is first to point out that the euro floor/chf celing was leaving an open door to safe haven flows from Russia by ...

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2014 Posts on CHF

Blog pages last updated in the year 2014 on the Swiss Franc.

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History of SNB Interventions

SNB Assets vs. Liabilities source UBS with EUR/CHF FX rate
High inflows of around 400 billion francs between 2009 and 2012 in the Swiss balance of payments could only be countered with an increase in reserve assets and interventions by the Swiss National Bank. This number is far higher than the one seen during the collapse of the Bretton Woods system, when the ten times bigger Germany had to buy reserves for 71 billion German Marks (at the time around 56 billion CHF). We look at the detailed history of...

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Sept 2014, George Dorgan at the CFA Society: Predicted End of EUR/CHF Peg

cfa society
George Dorgan held a presentation at the CFA society in Zurich on September 1. The subjects of his speech were: Reasons why the EUR/CHF exchange rate will fall under 1.20 once the deflationary pressures in Europe have ended The missing link in the CFA program between its chapters on micro-economy, macro and currencies Does history repeat? From Bretton Woods to Bretton Woods 2 and its slow end. Why the unexpected, the black swan happens more...

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When FX wars become negative interest wars

2014-08-27

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2014-08-27

Beat Siegenthaler, FX strategist at UBS, has been wondering about what the Swiss National Bank may do if the ECB’s measures to weaken the euro begin to test its 1.20 EURCHF floor. He notes, for example, that there has already been a marked divergence...

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The Swiss Franc, Pseudo-Mathematics and Financial Charlatanism

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Swiss Franc History, 2000-2007: The sale of the Swiss gold reserves

gold price vs. snb reserves 1
A critical Swiss Franc History: Between 2000 and 2007, the SNB made the Swiss cantons happy and delivered some billions of francs to prop up their finances. The gains were unfortunately not caused by strong asset management capabilities, but mostly due to gold price improvements and gold sales at quite cheap prices.

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Swiss Franc History, from 2004 to 2009: The undervalued franc

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A Critical History of the Swiss Franc: During the "global carry trade" period between 2004 and 2007, the euro strongly appreciated against the Swiss franc. Most astonishingly this happened, despite the fact that the Swiss GDP growth was on average 0.5% higher

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Swiss Franc History: Weak German and Swiss growth between 1996 and 2004

labor costs germany
A critical Swiss Franc History: Between 1996 and 2004 Switzerland and its main trading partner and FX proxy Germany saw slower growth compared to other European countries. We explain the reasons

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