Category Archive: 9a.) Real Investment Advice
4-24-26 Smart Wealth Transfer Strategies
What are the smartest ways affluent families transfer wealth efficiently—and what mistakes should you avoid?
Richard Rosso & Devoda Owens share wealth transfer strategies from the simplest approaches to more advanced planning techniques, starting with foundational tools like annual gifting and using lifetime exemptions. Also explaining how to think about asset selection—what to gift now versus what to hold for a step-up in basis....
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Breadth Is Lacking: Is The Rally Sustainable?
Having just hit record highs following an historically impressive 13-day winning streak, stocks are susceptible to a pullback or, at a minimum, consolidation. Beyond the direction over the next week or two, the bigger question is what comes after that. The answer to the question will present itself over time. However, in the meantime, we …
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Government Debt: Not What The Doom Crowd Thinks It Is
Every few years, someone discovers that the United States government owes a very large amount of dollars and concludes that Rome is about to fall. A recent piece in RealClearMarkets by Nash, Thomas, Lang, and Rastin does exactly this. They rely on the Roman Empire’s collapse and the Weimar Republic’s hyperinflation as cautionary parallels to …
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4-23-26 The Truth Behind The “Fed Buying Debt” Panic
Headlines claiming the Fed is “buying its own debt” or printing money are widely misunderstood.
Treasury buybacks are routine cash management—issuing new debt while retiring or shifting existing maturities to align with inflows like tax revenue.
No new money is being created; the system expands through lending and debt issuance.
Despite the panic narrative, demand for U.S. Treasuries remains strong, including from foreign investors.
This...
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4-23-26 Can Warsh Reshape the Fed?
Kevin Warsh’s nomination hearing put Federal Reserve reform front and center. His vision challenges long-standing norms, raising key questions about how monetary policy could change—and what it means for markets.
What would a Warsh-led Fed mean for interest rates, inflation expectations, and market stability?
Lance Roberts & Michael Lebowitz break down the implications.
Key topics include:
0:00 - INTRO
1:04 - Kevin Warsh & Fed Reform;...
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Can Warsh Reform The Fed
On Tuesday, Kevin Warsh appeared before the Senate for his nomination hearing for the Fed Chair. The biggest takeaway is Warsh's desire to "reform" the Fed. Based on his appearance, reform seems to cover the following three areas: Regarding current monetary policy, Warsh believes inflation is lower than official indicators state. We have noted this …
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4-22-26 The Market’s First Reaction To The Next Fed Era Is In
On Tuesday, we saw the market’s first reaction to the potential next Fed chair, as Kevin Warsh’s comments introduced a mix of signals.
His commitment to balance sheet reduction pointed to tighter liquidity, pressuring equities, while a shift toward alternative inflation measures could open the door for earlier rate cuts.
That push and pull explains the choppy action after an extended rally.
This wasn’t a breakdown—it was the market showing...
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4-22-26 Q&A Wednesday – Ask Us Anything
It’s Q&A Wednesday, and we’re tackling the questions that matter most right now—markets at all-time highs despite geopolitical tension, whether this rally can hold, and where investors should be positioned if volatility returns.
Lance Roberts & Danny Ratliff also dive into real-world portfolio decisions: how to think about inflation hedges like I-Bonds and TIPS, strategies around QLACs and RMDs, tax considerations in ETFs, and where to...
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GFC 2.0 Or False Alarm Part 2
In Part One, we explored how leverage and derivatives turned subprime mortgages into a crisis that nearly brought down the global financial system. With a better understanding of the derivatives and leverage that led to the Global Financial Crisis (GFC), we now explore private credit, a small “niche” financial sector, such as subprime mortgages, which …
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CAR Is Racing Higher
Our title above about Avis Budget Group (CAR) shares is a gross understatement. Since March 20th, CAR has risen nearly 500%, as we share below. While there are, and were, some favorable tailwinds driving the upward trend, such as rising used-car prices and elevated rental-car usage during the TSA-related problems, the most glaring factor is …
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4-21-26 What Happens After Extreme Bearish Sentiment
Extreme bearish sentiment and five straight weeks of declines $SPX pushed investors to panic-sell right into the lows, creating deeply oversold conditions.
Historically, that setup leads to strong forward returns as valuations compress and capital rotates back into high-quality growth names.
This latest rally followed the same playbook, with money moving out of defensive stocks like $XLP and into beaten-down tech $IGV.
The edge isn’t about...
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4-21-26 Financial Illiteracy: Too Big to Ignore
Financial illiteracy is no longer just a personal challenge—it’s a growing national risk. With U.S. household debt exceeding $18 trillion and nearly 40% of Americans unable to cover a $400 emergency, the consequences are becoming impossible to ignore.
Lance Roberts & Jon Penn break down how a lack of basic financial education is driving poor decision-making, rising debt levels, and long-term economic instability. From budgeting and credit to...
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CPU vs. GPU: The Changing Semiconductor Landscape
Since the start of the year, the Philadelphia Semiconductor Sector Index (SOXX) is up 33% compared with the broader market, which is up only 4%. The primary rationale for the significant outperformance appears to be the insatiable demand for AI and a shift in its usage. Unlike the past couple of years, in which Nvidia … Continue...
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The Confidence Gap: Noise Or Omen?
As shown in the graph below, the University of Michigan's consumer sentiment gauges tells us that consumer confidence is now the worst its been since the survey began in 1952. Despite the confidence gauges being lower than during peak Covid shutdown, the GFC, and the 1970s oil crisis/inflation outbreak, the economy (GDP) and the employment …
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Market Lesson: Why Panic Is A Costly Mistake
The Iran shock erased 18% from valuations and fully recovered in two weeks. Investors who panicked missed it all. Here's what the market lesson is about: risk management, behavior, and what to do with your portfolio right now. The stock market selloff between February 28 and April 14 produced one of the more instructive market …
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4-18-26 Regulators Just Opened The Door To Even More Speculation
Regulators are easing trading rules, lowering barriers for retail investors to become more active in markets that are already increasingly speculative.
With tools like 0DTE options and fewer restrictions, trading is faster and riskier than ever.
History shows that higher activity leads to worse long-term returns for most investors, yet policy changes are encouraging exactly that behavior.
It may feel empowering in the short term, but these...
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Short Covering Rally Or Is The Bull Market Back?
🔎 At a Glance 🏛️ Market Brief - Stocks Surge On Opening Of Strait The market didn't just recover this week. It made new history. Monday opened with the S&P 500 erasing all losses since the Iran war began. The market rose 1% to its highest close since late February. Driving that rally were reports … Continue reading...
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4-17-26 Your Longevity Score: Are You Ready?
Longevity risk is now measurable. The Longevity Preparedness Index, developed by the MIT AgeLab, scores how ready you are to live a long life. The average result is just 60 out of 100, signaling a major gap in retirement planning.
Richard Rosso & Jonathan McCarty explain what drives that score, where most people fall short, and how to improve it. From Social Security timing to guaranteed income, flexible withdrawals, growth exposure, and...
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Allbirds: Hustling AI To Boost Its Shares
Allbirds, the sustainable sneaker company, has recently fallen on hard times, with revenue down by more than 50% from its peak. To help right the ship, Allbirds is rebranding itself as NewBird AI. Allbirds closed all of its U.S. stores and sold its intellectual property for $39 million.
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BLS Jobs Report Is Broken. Is There A Better Measure?
"March's 178,000 BLS jobs report came in nearly three times Wall Street's 60,000 estimate. Markets celebrated. Almost nobody mentioned the entire beat traced back to doctors returning from a strike and weather rebounds. That's not strength.
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