by Lance Roberts
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| Regulators are easing trading rules, lowering barriers for retail investors to become more active in markets that are already increasingly speculative. With tools like 0DTE options and fewer restrictions, trading is faster and riskier than ever. History shows that higher activity leads to worse long-term returns for most investors, yet policy changes are encouraging exactly that behavior. It may feel empowering in the short term, but these cycles typically end with retail taking the biggest losses once conditions turn. Study after study shows that the more frequently investors trade, the lower their long-term returns tend to be, with most active traders ultimately underperforming $SPX $QQQ or even worse, losing money. If you like this video, please ❤️like and 🔁retweet Catch Lance Roberts daily on The Real Investment Show: https://www.youtube.com/@TheRealInvestmentShow |
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3-2-26 War Headlines Don’t Move Markets – Long-Term Earnings Do
2026-03-02
War headlines spark sharp reactions—oil jumps, stocks dip, the dollar firms—but history shows these moves are usually temporary. Markets price uncertainty fast, then refocus on what truly drives long-term returns: earnings, cash flow, and forward guidance.
The key question isn’t how dramatic the news sounds. It’s whether it permanently changes corporate profitability. Some sectors may benefit short term, others may sell off, but once fear fades, capital flows back to fundamentals.
Volatility is emotional, earnings are structural.
📺Full episode:
Catch Lance Roberts daily on The Real Investment Show: https://www.youtube.com/@TheRealInvestmentShow
SaaS: Is There Opportunity In The Destruction?
2026-03-02
A specter is haunting Wall Street—the specter of the “SaaSpocalypse.” Since the iShares Expanded Tech-Software Sector ETF (IGV) peaked on September 19, 2025, it has fallen roughly 30%. For context, the broad technology indexes like XLK and QQQ are essentially flat over the same period, and the semiconductor ETF (SMH) is up 30%. Between mid-January …
Nvidia Delivers Perfection But Market Has Concerns
2026-02-27
Yet again, Nvidia delivers another incredible earnings report, reinforcing that the AI investment boom continues. As we show below, they posted annual revenue growth of of 73%, handily beating Wall Street forecasts. Most importantly, strong earnings and robust forward guidance confirm that their customers continue to aggressively expand AI infrastructure. Nvidia delivers the critical computing …
1-12-26 Investor Lessons From 2025 for 2026
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Markets opened 2026 with early gains, improving breadth, and a rotation toward value—but mixed fundamentals and elevated expectations remain beneath the surface.
Lance Roberts break down the key investor lessons from 2025 that matter most as we head into 2026. We review what worked, what failed, and why market narratives once again misled investors. Topics include value versus growth, volatility versus risk, the role of cash, earnings-driven returns, portfolio rebalancing, and why discipline—not prediction—remains the foundation of long-term investing.
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Minerals, Russia, China & Iran: More On Venezuela
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Yesterday’s Commentary discussed the potential impact of regime change in Venezuela on the energy sector. Today, we extend the analysis and examine other reasons for the invasion. The following theories are based on a Substack commentary from Tracy Shucart, an economist and resources trader. For starters, Tracy makes it clear that oil is not the …
11-20-25 How The Fed Deals Liquidity: The Monetary Toolbox
2025-11-20
How does the Federal Reserve actually supply liquidity to the financial system? And why have markets become so dependent on the Fed since 2008?
Lance Roberts & Michael Lebowitz break down the complete Fed liquidity toolkit—from QE and QT to the Standing Repo Facility, IORB, ON RRP, OMO, and the Discount Window—and explain why these tools create the “floor and ceiling” of overnight rates.
0:00 – INTRO
0:18 – Nvidia Kill It; Rate Cut Odds Decline
4:06 – Markets Under Pressure; Setting Up for Rally
10:29 – Markets’ Post-Nvidia Relief Valve
15:53 – Oracle, CoreWeave, and CDS’s Explained
18:24 – Is There Enough Credit to Fund AI Buildouts?
20:30 – Financial Markets are Like Consumers – they’ll find the money
22:16 – Begging for ETF’s – Be careful what you ask for
25:20 – Centralized
11-27-25 Market Cycles, Tariff Checks, & 50-Year Mortgages
2025-11-17
Out Thanksgiving Day special, featuring Lance Roberts, Danny Ratliff, and Michael Lebowitz opining what he would do, were he to run the Federal Reserve, and why you shouldn’t spend that $2k tariff refund just yet.
EBITDA And The Warnings Of Charlie Munger
2025-11-15
🔎 At a Glance 💬 Ask a Question Have a question about the markets, your portfolio, or a topic you’d like us to cover in a future newsletter? 📩 Email: [email protected]🐦 Follow & DM on X: @LanceRoberts📰 Subscribe on Substack: @LanceRoberts We read every message and may feature your question in next week’s issue! 🏛️ …
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