US Financial Health & The Debt Cycle
2026-05-06
When debt levels reach extreme sizes relative to income, governments are left with a limited set of choices. They can cut spending, raise taxes, restructure the debt, or print money.
History shows that most systems end up relying heavily on the last option, but printing money doesn’t eliminate the problem–it just shifts how the debt cycle plays out.
Understanding this dynamic is key to understanding the economic environment we’re in.
The Importance of the Health U.S.-China relations and of Our Oceans
2026-04-11
There are few things that are more important for the health of the world than the health of U.S.-China relations and the health of our oceans. For over 40 years, I have cared deeply about both, so for me this goodwill mission @OceanX just completed bringing together American and Chinese students and early-career scientists has been a dream come true.
Investing During a Changing World Order
2026-02-25
Last week, I shared a chapter from my 2021 book Principles for Dealing with the Changing World Order that details the classic signs to watch for as the world geopolitical order breaks down in a classic progression of events that I call the "Big Cycle." By knowing what this classic process looks like and then comparing it with what is happening, one can better understand what is happening and what might happen. The article was very popular, getting more than 75 million views, and a number of people asked what it all meant for investing.
Because so many people asked, I am now passing along to you the book’s next chapter, "Investing in Light of the Big Cycle." I think that it gives a good perspective on investing at this time. You can read the full chapter here:
Ray Dalio’s Point of View on Wealth Taxes
2026-01-28
The income and wealth gap in the US are the highest they’ve been in almost 100 years. It’s something that need to be addressed before it creates even more extreme internal conflicts.
However, I worry about the practical impacts of wealth taxes on the economic system. And that’s because there’s a difference between wealth and money.
It’s all about the mechanics. Bubbles burst when there’s a need for money to generate cash flow. Wealth taxes would create a situation where people who are wealthy on paper need to sell assets to cover their liabilities. And that can quickly create a dynamic that leads to a broader issue.
It’s something to watch in the coming years.
#wealthtaxes #wef26
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