The Truth About Tarrifs

2026-05-06

When debt levels reach extreme sizes relative to income, governments are left with a limited set of choices. They can cut spending, raise taxes, restructure the debt, or print money.

History shows that most systems end up relying heavily on the last option, but printing money doesn’t eliminate the problem–it just shifts how the debt cycle plays out.

Understanding this dynamic is key to understanding the economic environment we’re in.

2026-04-11

There are few things that are more important for the health of the world than the health of U.S.-China relations and the health of our oceans. For over 40 years, I have cared deeply about both, so for me this goodwill mission @OceanX just completed bringing together American and Chinese students and early-career scientists has been a dream come true.

2026-02-25

Last week, I shared a chapter from my 2021 book Principles for Dealing with the Changing World Order that details the classic signs to watch for as the world geopolitical order breaks down in a classic progression of events that I call the "Big Cycle." By knowing what this classic process looks like and then comparing it with what is happening, one can better understand what is happening and what might happen. The article was very popular, getting more than 75 million views, and a number of people asked what it all meant for investing.

Because so many people asked, I am now passing along to you the book’s next chapter, "Investing in Light of the Big Cycle." I think that it gives a good perspective on investing at this time. You can read the full chapter here:

2026-01-28

The income and wealth gap in the US are the highest they’ve been in almost 100 years. It’s something that need to be addressed before it creates even more extreme internal conflicts.

However, I worry about the practical impacts of wealth taxes on the economic system. And that’s because there’s a difference between wealth and money.

It’s all about the mechanics. Bubbles burst when there’s a need for money to generate cash flow. Wealth taxes would create a situation where people who are wealthy on paper need to sell assets to cover their liabilities. And that can quickly create a dynamic that leads to a broader issue.

It’s something to watch in the coming years.

#wealthtaxes #wef26

2025-12-03

Easy money is a cure all, until it’s not. It’s hard to know when you have to put on the brakes and when things might pop.

Today, the stock market is at its peak, gold is through the roof, and the wealth gap continues to increase. And in terms of what comes next, it looks like we’re going to see a significant easing of monetary policy along with less regulation.

I recently sat down with CNBC’s Andrew Ross Sorkin to discuss all of this and more. You can find the full video at the link in the comments.

2025-11-29

Trying to figure out your holiday gift giving this year? I have a great suggestion for you.

There are organizations like @TisBestCards and @donorschooseorg that will give a donation to your recipient’s favorite charity, on your behalf.

I think gifts like these are more in keeping with what the holiday season is really about, so I wanted to pass it along. #redefinegifting

2025-11-18

I’ve taken my best-selling book “Principles” and distilled it into a video mini-series that focuses on the life principles that have helped me the most. This will especially help those who are graduating this Spring and entering “the real world.”

This is Episode 1: The Call to Adventure, I hope you find these helpful.

2025-11-17

If you want to be successful, you have to do 3 things:

1) Surround yourself with great people
2) Develop meaningful work and meaningful relationships
3) Use technology, like AI, to systemize your thinking

Do you agree with this list? What would you add? @TheProfGPod