Category Archive: 9d.) Ray Dalio

Filter archive by: Show All Show only Articles Show only Videos

My New Book How Countries Go Broke: The Big Cycle

2025-07-14

by

I’m very happy to learn that my new book, How Countries Go Broke: The Big Cycle was selected by @barnesandnoble as one of their Best Business Books of the year. The book conveys what I’ve learned over the past 50 years as a macro investor about the mechanics of how countries go broke — and what that means for the US today. I hope you’ll read it and learn about it so that you understand what we’re dealing with, and what you can do to navigate the...

Read More »

What Happens When a Country Accumulates Too Much Debt?

2025-07-11

by

History shows us that having too much debt during an economic downturn leads to a classic, self-reinforcing cycle where: 1) The empire can no longer borrow the money to repay its debts 2) It prints a lot of new money, which devalues the currency and raises inflation 3) Living standards decline, leading to the rise of political extremism 4) Turbulent economic conditions undermine productivity and there is conflict about how to divide the shrinking...

Read More »

My Honest Thoughts on the United States’ Tariffs

2025-07-09

by

I’ve gotten a lot of questions on the recent Trump tariffs and their impact on the global economy. There is a belief that tariffs will bring manufacturing back to the United States, I am uncertain of that. You can learn more about why, and what the current big debt cycle the United States is going through in my new book, How Countries Go Broke: The Big Cycle. #raydalio #principles #politics #economics

Read More »

How Domestic and World Orders Change

2025-07-07

by

An order is a governing system that helps people deal with each other in a structured way. There are internal orders for governing within countries, and a world order for governing between countries. Orders typically change after wars, when revolutionary new forces defeat weak old ones. When this happens, new agreements and treaties are signed that detail how global governance and monetary systems will work moving forward. And a new world order...

Read More »

How Government Debt Reduces Your Buying Power

2025-07-03

by

History tells us the preferred path for government policymakers trying to deal with too much debt is lowering interest rates and devaluing the currency the debt is denominated in. Doing this is a very hidden way of reducing wealth, because as your currency goes down, it makes it look like other things are going up. But despite the downsides, this wealth shrinkage and reduction in buying power is favored by policy makers precisely because its...

Read More »

The Challenge of Absolutist Politics

2025-07-02

by

After spending time in Washington, DC discussing the budget deficit with senior people on both sides of the aisle, it’s clear to me that we are unlikely to change the debt trajectory we’re on and avoid the painful consequences. While virtually everyone agrees on the need to address our debt problem in a balanced way that includes tax increases and cuts to benefits, they also agree that they cannot speak up because politics have become absolutist....

Read More »

Can the Right and Left Agree on This?

2025-06-30

by

Everybody I speak with on both sides of the aisle agrees that we need to get our spending down to 3% of GDP. But politics is standing in the way of making good decisions. The idea of compromise is out. I think we all agree that we’re in need of a big renovation. The question is how that renovation gets done — and there’s a lot of fighting over what that renovation might look like. My advice: Politicians on both sides need to agree on a...

Read More »

This is Why the U.S. Deficit is so Alarming

2025-06-26

by

It’s critical that we bring our deficits down — and soon. Since one man’s debts are another man’s assets, debt problems pass through the system very quickly. When there’s a lot of debt, like there is today, it has to be sold — and we’re now at a point where there aren’t enough buyers for that debt. Historically, when that happens, bad things follow. So we need to get this problem under control and we need to do it fast.

Read More »

Will the Central Bank Lose Independence Under Trump?

2025-06-24

by

It is the job of central banks to maintain a balanced economy by not allowing too much credit into the monetary system. Learn more about central banks and their responsibilities in my new book, How Countries Go Broke: The Big Cycle here: https://bit.ly/3F5OFvN #raydalio #principles #politics #economics

Read More »

Should the Federal Reserve Cut Interest Rates?

2025-06-20

by

The Fed is in a very difficult position as it tries to balance the benefits of cutting interest rates with maintaining the value of money. Right now, there is a great deal of uncertainty throughout the economy, along with a deterioration in sentiment. Combine that with political pressures and the realities of our upcoming debt service payments, and you have this value of money conflict. So changes in the monetary policy — especially if the cut...

Read More »

Ray Dalio on Why the U.S. Must Restructure Global Trade Deals

2025-06-17

by

We’re entering a period of history where countries must be much more self-sufficient. Not just because of the debt and trade issues — and those imbalances are unsustainable — but also because of security. With today’s geopolitical instability, a country like the U.S. can’t afford to be be dependent on imports from countries like China. As a result, restructuring our trade relationships is critical and necessary. At least, that’s what it looks...

Read More »

Dalio’s 3% 3 Part Solution to Decrease the Deficit

2025-06-16

by

The US is approaching the end of the long-term debt cycle. There are 3 levers we can pull to bring the deficit down to ~3% of GDP and mitigate our debt burdens: 1) reducing spending, 2) increasing taxes, and 3) lowering interest rates. While we need to consider each of these levers, I recently discussed why reducing interest rates will ultimately have the greatest impact on the budget deficit with @the_IMF. You can learn more about my proposed...

Read More »

The Reason I Studied 500 Years of History

2025-06-10

by

What's happening now with money, debt, and credit has never happened before in our lifetime. But it has happened many times in history, which is why I believe studying the past is so important. The same cycles repeat over and over again, and there are important lessons we can learn from those experiences. If we apply that understanding to the issues we face today, we can increase the chances of positive geopolitical and economic outcomes. That’s...

Read More »

The Mechanics of the Big Cycle

2025-06-09

by

If you study the patterns of history, you find interrelated cycles in which global economic and political orders rise and inevitably break down due to specific cause-effect relationships playing out through time. In my research, I’ve found that when you have the combination of the monetary order breaking down — like a debt crisis — and the internal political order breaking down, you have a very serious situation. I believe we are facing one of...

Read More »

Happy World Ocean Day

2025-06-08

by

Happy World Ocean Day and welcome to the OceanXplorer! We're heading to the UN Ocean Conference in France where world leaders, explorers, and scientists are gathering to protect the oceans and better understand them through exploration.  The ocean is our biggest, most important asset, accounting for 72% of the Earth’s surface--so more than twice as much as all continents combined. It is incredibly interesting, valuable, and almost totally...

Read More »

Your #Money Could be Worth Less Soon

2025-06-06

by

Remember that one man’s debts are another man’s assets. That means if you both weaken a currency and produce more of it, the value of that currency decreases. This tradeoff is particularly challenging when a country has a large debt burden, like the U.S. today. In my new book, How Countries Go Broke: The Big Cycle, I outline a plan for how we can navigate this tricky situation. You can find it available to order here: https://bit.ly/3F5OFvN...

Read More »

How Countries Go Broke: The Big Cycle

2025-06-05

by

If I had to pick the most important chapter from my new book, How Countries Go Broke: The Big Cycle, this would be it. In fact, I think it’s so important that I wanted to make sure it was easily accessible for anyone who might be interested. Because once you understand the big cycle and how it works, watching events unfold is like watching a movie that you have seen many times before. That’s because the big cycle is a dynamic that has worked in...

Read More »

My New Book How Countries Go Broke is Available Today

2025-06-03

by

Today is the launch day for my new book, How Countries Go Broke: The Big Cycle. I wrote this book because I believe now is a critical time when it comes to the global debt burden. I’ve spent a lot of time over the last 50 years as a global macro investor finding the indicators of debt problems, and I want to pass along what I’ve learned so that policymakers and individuals can try to deal with our current situation well. Through studying...

Read More »

The Big Cycle: Reaching the Top

2025-05-29

by

The seeds of every great empire’s inevitable decline are embedded within the fruits of its successes. A predictable cycle occurs that makes people in rich and powerful countries less competitive and more vulnerable to challenges. Having the world’s reserve currency inevitably leads to borrowing excessively and contributes to the country building up large debts with foreign lenders. This borrowing sustains the power beyond its fundamentals by...

Read More »

Ray Dalio’s the Big Cycle Explained in 3 Minutes

2025-05-28

by

Five big forces produce the overall Big Cycle that leads to radical changes in monetary, domestic, and/or world orders. To learn more about where we are at in the Big Cycle, check out my new book, How Countries Go Broke: The Big Cycle here: https://bit.ly/3F5OFvN #raydalio #principles #politics #economics

Read More »