Category Archive: 9a.) Real Investment Advice

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11-20-25 Wall Street Is Turning Bitcoin Into Just Another Volatile Asset

2025-11-20

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The #Bitcoin original promise of decentralization is fading as ETFs like $IBIT pull it deeper into Wall Street’s ecosystem. In this Short video, Michael Lebowitz and I discuss how short-term traders and arbitrage flows now drive more volatility, diluting true holders and turning $BTCUSD into just another tradable asset. 📺Full episode: _r_I Catch me daily on The Real Investment Show: https://www.youtube.com/@TheRealInvestmentShow

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11-20-25 How The Fed Deals Liquidity: The Monetary Toolbox

2025-11-20

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How does the Federal Reserve actually supply liquidity to the financial system? And why have markets become so dependent on the Fed since 2008? Lance Roberts & Michael Lebowitz break down the complete Fed liquidity toolkit—from QE and QT to the Standing Repo Facility, IORB, ON RRP, OMO, and the Discount Window—and explain why these tools create the “floor and ceiling” of overnight rates. 0:00 - INTRO 0:18 - Nvidia Kill It; Rate Cut Odds...

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Oracle And CoreWeave CDS Spreads Widening: Omen Or Jitters

2025-11-20

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2025-11-20

Fear is being spread on social media that some AI players are nearing default. The evidence, some say, lies in the Bloomberg graphs below showing the widening CDS spreads of Oracle and CoreWeave. Before getting into some details about what the CDS markets may be warning about Oracle and CoreWeave, let's explain what CDS is. …

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11/25/25 The System Is Broken: What Money Really Means Now

2025-11-19

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The financial system we rely on today isn’t what it used to be. From the Fed’s creation of “reserves” instead of real money to the collateral-driven markets that emerged after 2008, Lance Roberts & Garrett Baldwin break down how the game has changed—and what it means for your wealth. We cover everything from repo markets, ETFs, and the Buffett Indicator to the rise of passive investing and why sovereign nations are quietly buying gold. Plus,...

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11-19-25 Risk-Range Report: We Are Still In a Bull Market

2025-11-19

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$SPY / $QQQ pullback is not the start of a bear market. In this short video, I look at the Risk-Range data confirming the broader bull trend and explain why this dip is an opportunity, not a danger. 📺Full episode: Catch me daily on The Real Investment Show: https://www.youtube.com/@TheRealInvestmentShow

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11-26-25 Confidence, Chaos, and The K-Shaped Economy

2025-11-19

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Peter Atwater, one of the leading voices on confidence-driven behavior in markets and society, joins Lance Roberts to share how certainty, control, and herd mentality shape every major trend investors face today. Lance and Peter discuss The Confidence Map, why people behave differently when they’re in the “comfort zone” versus the “stress center,” and how these shifts explain the rise of speculative investing, the bifurcated K-shaped economy, and...

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11-19-25 Pension or Lump Sum – What’s the Smarter Move?

2025-11-19

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Choosing between a company pension and a lump-sum payout is one of the biggest financial decisions many pre-retirees will ever face—especially for workers in industries facing layoffs or restructuring, like the major oil companies in Houston right now. Lance Roberts & Danny Ratliff break down the key factors to consider when comparing a lifetime pension annuity versus taking a lump-sum distribution you can invest or convert into a private...

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How The Fed Deals Liquidity: The Monetary Toolbox

2025-11-19

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2025-11-19

In our last article, QE Is Coming, we focused on why the capital and financial markets have become so dependent on the Fed for liquidity.  The article explains that, in the aftermath of the crisis, a slew of regulations drastically changed the liquidity landscape. As a result, the Fed—not the private market—is now the primary …

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Margin Debt Sets Records: Should We Be Concnered?

2025-11-19

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2025-11-19

There is a strong historical relationship between margin debt and the stock market. Given that margin debt just set a record at $1.18 trillion, it's worth appreciating the mechanics that support this relationship and what it may tell us about how much longer the bull market may run. When stocks rise, the wealth effect kicks …

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11-18-24 The Simple Rule That Keeps You On The Right Side Of The Market

2025-11-18

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$SPX / $SPY just broke below its 50-day moving average, making the next support levels crucial. In this short video, I show how to read these trend shifts so you know when to stay invested and when the weakening momentum may call for trimming exposure. 📺Full episode: Catch me daily on The Real Investment Show: https://www.youtube.com/@TheRealInvestmentShow

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11-18-25 Indicators & Income: What Retirees Must Know (Who Can You Trust)?

2025-11-18

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Lance Roberts & Jonathan Penn tackle two of the biggest gaps in financial education: How to actually use RSI, MACD, Money Flow, and MACD Histogram together, and why post-retirement planning (the “decumulation” phase) is so overlooked—yet absolutely critical. If you’re an “Ole Coot” looking to better understand technical indicators… or a younger “You’t” trying to build financial literacy early… Lance and Jon break down the mysteries of...

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Apple Out Google In: Warren Buffett’s Latest Moves

2025-11-18

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2025-11-18

Warren Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway has long viewed Apple as its crown jewel. In early 2024, Apple shares accounted for nearly 25% of the Berkshire Hathaway portfolio. However, Buffett has been selling out of Apple since then, trimming its stake by over 40%. Based on Buffett's comments, they are reducing their holdings due to concerns about …

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11-27-25 Market Cycles, Tariff Checks, & 50-Year Mortgages

2025-11-17

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Out Thanksgiving Day special, featuring Lance Roberts, Danny Ratliff, and Michael Lebowitz opining what he would do, were he to run the Federal Reserve, and why you shouldn't spend that $2k tariff refund just yet.

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11-17-25 Wall Street’s 2026 Earnings Expectations: Real Growth or Just a Dream?

2025-11-17

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The market is betting on big earnings growth in 2026, but the economy may not deliver. In this short video, I break down why strong forecasts clash with weak labor data and what that tension means for the outlook ahead. 📺Full episode: -K-dbfV_o Catch me daily on The Real Investment Show: https://www.youtube.com/@TheRealInvestmentShow $SPX / $SPY $NDX / $QQQ

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11-17-25 Full Market Cycles: Why Bull Runs Always Meet Their Match

2025-11-17

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Full market cycles matter more today than at any point in the last 15 years. Lance Roberts breaks down why valuations, history, and market structure all point to a simple truth: Every bull market is only half the story. The other half is the bear. Lance's approach isn’t bullish or bearish. It’s risk-focused. Your job as an investor isn’t to predict the next crash—it’s to avoid catastrophic losses that erase years of gains during the completion of...

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Full Market Cycles: Half Bull and Half Bear

2025-11-17

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2025-11-17

Last week, we discussed the importance of "math" as it relates to valuations and noted the importance of understanding "full market cycles." To wit: "The math on forward return expectations, given current valuation levels, does not hold up.  The assumption that valuations can fall without the price of the markets being negatively impacted is also grossly flawed. …

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Is Strategy Dragging Bitcoin Down?

2025-11-17

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2025-11-17

Bitcoin is up 2% year to date, but the share price of the world's largest holder of Bitcoin, Strategy (MSTR - formerly MicroStrategy), is down about 30% year to date. As we have noted in the past, Strategy is a Bitcoin holding company, a leveraged alternative to holding Bitcoin. Its original business, enterprise analytics software, …

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11-15-25 Why The Fed Is Easing Into Strength — And What It Means For Markets

2025-11-15

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The Fed is preparing to cut rates just as an AI-driven boom accelerates. In this short video, MIchael Lebowitz and I discuss why easing into strength is unusual, how it could stoke inflation, and what it means for the next phase of market growth. 📺Full episode: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-YZaHtreohI Catch me daily on The Real Investment Show: https://www.youtube.com/@TheRealInvestmentShow

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EBITDA And The Warnings Of Charlie Munger

2025-11-15

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2025-11-15

🔎 At a Glance 💬 Ask a Question Have a question about the markets, your portfolio, or a topic you'd like us to cover in a future newsletter? 📩 Email: [email protected]🐦 Follow & DM on X: @LanceRoberts📰 Subscribe on Substack: @LanceRoberts We read every message and may feature your question in next week’s issue! 🏛️ …

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12-2-25 Dollar Power, AI, & The New Financial Order

2025-11-14

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In this episode, Lance Roberts sits down with Brent Johnson, CEO of Santiago Capital, to break down what’s really happening with the U.S. dollar, the global monetary system, and why AI is accelerating a geopolitical and economic power shift. If you're looking for big-picture insights on the future of the dollar, geopolitics, AI-driven capital flows, and where long-term investing tailwinds are forming—this is a must-watch. #BrentJohnson #USDollar...

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