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Category Archive: 5) Global Macro

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Emerging Market Preview: Week Ahead

2017-11-27

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2017-11-27

EM FX ended the holiday-shortened week on a soft note. While most were up on the entire week, notable laggards were TRY, CLP, and ZAR. All three currencies underperformed due to rising political risks, and we suspect that will continue. We believe MXN and BRL are likely to rejoin the laggards in the coming days.

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Addictions: Social Media & Mobile Phones Fall From Grace

2017-11-26

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2017-11-26

US Time Spent per Adult User per Day with Digital Media, 2008 - 2015
Identifying social media and mobile phones as addictive is only the first step in a much more complex investigation. For everyone who remembers the Early Days of social media and mobile phones, it's been quite a ride from My Space and awkward texting on tiny screens to the current alarm over the addictive nature of social media and mobile telephony.

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Durable Goods Only About Halfway To Real Reflation

2017-11-25

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2017-11-25

US Core Durable Goods Orders, Jan 1993 - Jan 2017
Durable goods were boosted for a second month by the after-effects of Harvey and Irma. New orders excluding those from transportation industries rose 8.5% year-over-year in October 2017, a slight acceleration from the 6.5% average of the four previous months. Shipments of durable goods (ex transportation) also rose by 8% last month.

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Beware the Marginal Buyer, Borrower and Renter

2017-11-24

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2017-11-24

S&P/Case-Shiller CA-San Francisco Home Price Index, 1990 - 2017
When times are good, the impact of the marginal buyer, borrower and renter on the market is often overlooked. By "marginal" I mean buyers, borrowers and renters who have to stretch their finances to the maximum to afford the purchase, loan or rent.

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Bi-Weekly Economic Review: A Whirlwind of Data

2017-11-22

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2017-11-22

The economic data of the last two weeks was generally better than expected, the Citigroup Economic Surprise index near the highs of the year. Still, as I’ve warned repeatedly over the last few years, better than expected should not be confused with good. We go through mini-cycles all the time, the economy ebbing and flowing through the course of a business cycle.

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Want Widespread Prosperity? Radically Lower Costs

2017-11-22

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2017-11-22

Selected Goods Price Changes, 1996 - 2016
As long as this is business as usual, it's impossible to slash costs and boost widespread prosperity. It's easy to go down the wormhole of complexity when it comes to figuring out why our economy is stagnating for the bottom 80% of households. But it's actually not that complicated: the primary driver of stagnation, decline of small business start-ups, etc. is costs are skyrocketing to the point of unaffordability.

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Emerging Market Preview: Week Ahead

2017-11-20

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2017-11-20

EM FX ended the week firm, and capped off a good week overall. Best performers last week for ZAR and KRW, while the worst were TRY and IDR. Until we get higher US rates, the dollar may remain under modest pressure. This would help EM maintain some traction, though we remain cautious.

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Industrial Production Still Reflating

2017-11-20

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2017-11-20

US Industrial Production, Jan 1995 - Nov 2017
Industrial Production benefited from a hurricane rebound in October 2017, rising 2.9% above October 2016. That is the highest growth rate in nearly three years going back to January 2015. With IP lagging behind the rest of the manufacturing turnaround, this may be the best growth rate the sector will experience. Production overall was still contracting all the way to November 2016, providing the index favorable base comparisons that won’t last past...

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Can’t Hide From The CPI

2017-11-19

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2017-11-19

US Consumer Price Index, Jan 2016 - Oct 2017
On the vital matter of missing symmetry, consumer price indices across the world keep suggesting there remains none. Recoveries were called “V” shaped for a reason. Any economy knocked down would be as intense in getting back up, normal cyclical forces creating momentum for that to (only) happen. In the context of the past three years, symmetry is still nowhere to be found.

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Retail Sales (US) Are Exhibit #1

2017-11-19

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2017-11-19

U.S. Retail Sales, June 2011 - October 2017
In January 2016, everything came to a head. The oil price crash (2nd time), currency chaos, global turmoil, and even a second stock market liquidation were all being absorbed by the global economy. The disruptions were far worse overseas, thus the global part of global turmoil, but the US economy, too, was showing clear signs of distress.

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Emerging Markets: What has Changed

2017-11-18

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2017-11-18

Moody's raised India's sovereign debt rating for the first time since 2004 by a notch to Baa2. Nigerian officials are on a global roadshow to support plans to issue its longest-dated Eurobonds ever. The head of South Africa’s budget office resigned.

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What Central Banks Have Done Is What They’re Actually Good At

2017-11-18

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2017-11-18

Full Employment Slack, Jan 1994 - 2017
As a natural progression from the analysis of one historical bond “bubble” to the latest, it’s statements like the one below that ironically help it continue. One primary manifestation of low Treasury rates is the deepening mistrust constantly fomented in markets by the media equivalent of the boy who cries recovery.

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Is This Why Productivity Has Tanked and Wealth Inequality Has Soared?

2017-11-17

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2017-11-17

US Productivity Growth, 1980 - 2016
Needless but highly profitable forced-upgrades are the bread and butter of the tech industry. One of the enduring mysteries in conventional economics (along with why wages for the bottom 95% have stagnated) is the recent decline in productivity gains (see chart).

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Globally Synchronized Downside Risks

2017-11-17

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2017-11-17

Markets and Economy. March 2012 - 2017
Oil prices were riding high after several weeks of steady, significant gains. It’s never really clear what it is that might actually move markets in the short run, whether for crude it was Saudi Arabia’s escalating activities or other geopolitical concerns. Behind those, the idea of “globally synchronized growth” that is supposedly occurring for the first time since before the Great “Recession” while it may not have pushed oil investors to buy...

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Forget the Bogus Republican “Reform”: Here’s What Real Tax Reform Would Look Like

2017-11-16

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2017-11-16

US Household Incomes, 1980 - 2014
The point is to end the current system in which billionaires get all the privileges and financial benefits of owning assets in the U.S. but don't pay taxes that are proportional to the benefits they extract. As has been widely noted, the Republicans' proposed "tax reform" is not only just more BAU (business as usual, i.e. cut taxes for the wealthy), it's also not real reform. At best, it's just another iteration of D.C. policy tweaks packaged for...

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The Fetid Swamp of Tax Reform

2017-11-15

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2017-11-15

Average Benefits Received and Taxes Paid per Person
The likelihood that either party will ever drain the fetid swamp of corruption that is our tax code is zero, because it's far too profitable for politicos to operate their auction for tax favors. To understand the U.S. tax code and the endless charade of tax reform, we have to start with four distasteful realities: 1. Ours is not a representational democracy, it's a political auction in which wealth casts the votes that count.

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Where are Europe’s Fault Lines?

2017-11-14

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2017-11-14

Map
Beneath the surface of modern maps, numerous old fault lines still exist. A political earthquake or two might reveal the fractures for all to see. Correspondent Mark G. and I have long discussed the potential relevancy of old boundaries, alliances and structures in Europe's future alignments.Examples include the Holy Roman Empire and the Hanseatic League, among others.

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Consumer Credit Both Accelerating and Decelerating Toward The Same Thing

2017-11-14

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2017-11-14

Consumer Credit Monthly Flow, Jan 2012 - Jul 2017
Federal Reserve revisions to the Consumer Credit series have created some discontinuities in the data. Changes were applied cumulatively to December 2015 alone, rather than revising downward the whole data series prior to that month. The Fed therefore estimates $3.531 trillion in outstanding consumer credit (seasonally-adjusted) in November 2015, and then just $3.417 trillion the following month.

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Emerging Markets: Week Ahead Preview

2017-11-13

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2017-11-13

EM FX closed the week on a soft note. For the week as a whole, best performers were MYR, PLN, and COP, while the worst were BRL, ZAR, and INR. US inflation and retail sales data will likely set the tone for EM. Also, the US fiscal debate is set to continue this week, so expect lots of choppy trading across many markets.

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Our Culture of Rape

2017-11-13

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2017-11-13

Global Wealth Pyramid
These are the poisoned fruits of a neofeudal system in which power, wealth and political influence are concentrated in the apex of the wealth-power pyramid. Stripped of pretense, ours is a culture of rape. Apologists for the system that spawned this culture of rape claim that this violence is the work of a few scattered sociopaths. The apologists are wrong: The system generates a culture of rape.

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