Category Archive: 5) Global Macro

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Is Housing a Bubble That’s About to Crash?

2022-05-05

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2022-05-05

We are all prone to believing the recent past is a reliable guide to the future. But in times of dynamic reversals, the past is an anchor thwarting our progress, not a forecast. Are we heading into another real estate bubble / crash?

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Synchronized Manufacturing, Hopefully Not Mao

2022-05-04

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2022-05-04

This is one of those cases when Inigo Montoya, the lovable if fictional rapscallion from the movie The Princess Bride, would pop into the scene to devastatingly deliver his now famous rebuke. Last week, China’s one-man Dear Leader said that the country was going to start up its own version of Build Back Better.

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‘Most of 1.5 million tonnes of grain stolen by Russia’, says Ukraine

2022-05-04

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Russian forces have stolen grain from the areas of Ukraine they occupy, Ukraine's deputy agriculture minister said recently. However, Kremlin denied the grain theft claims.

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Press freedom: why you should be worried | The Economist

2022-05-03

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Global press freedom is facing its greatest challenge in decades—not just in authoritarian countries, but in democracies too. Governments are using more subtle tactics to muzzle the media. What’s going on and why is it so worrying? 00:00 – Introduction: global press freedom is in decline 01:08 – How journalists are being harassed and silenced in India 04:00 – The decline of press freedom in democracies 06:53 – Press freedom in Malta: the murder...

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What Really ‘Raises’ The Rising ‘Dollar’

2022-05-03

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2022-05-03

It’s one of those things which everyone just accepts because everyone says it must be true. If the US$ is rising, what else other than the Federal Reserve. In particular, the Fed has to be raising rates in relation to other central banks; interest rate differentials.

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Weekly Market Pulse: Welcome Back To The Old Normal

2022-05-03

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2022-05-03

Stagflation. It’s a word that strikes fear in the hearts of investors, one that evokes memories – for some of us – of bell bottoms, disco, and Jimmy Carter’s American malaise. The combination of weak growth and high inflation is the worst of all worlds, one that required a transformational leader and a cigar-chomping central banker to defeat the last time it came around.

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WION-VOA Co-Production: Russia-Ukraine war ongoings & How is Washington navigating Covid?

2022-05-01

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U.S. President Joe Biden called for the U.S. Congress to pass $33 billion in additional security and humanitarian assistance to Ukraine. For more analysis, we're joined by VOA's Correspondent, Jessica Stone.

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From special operation to war: Will Putin declare war against Ukraine?

2022-04-30

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Russian invasion of Ukraine has entered third month now. From special operation to war, will Putin declare war against Ukraine? Watch UK's Defence Secretary's take on Ukraine conflict.

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Is It Recession?

2022-04-30

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2022-04-30

According to today’s advance estimate for first quarter 2022 US real GDP, the third highest (inflation-adjusted) inventory build on record subtracted nearly a point off the quarter-over-quarter annual rate. Yes, you read that right; deducted from growth, as in lowered it. This might seem counterintuitive since by GDP accounting inventory adds to output.

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Doom Porn and Empty Optimism

2022-04-29

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2022-04-29

If we can't discern the difference between doom-porn and investing in self-reliance, then solutions will continue to be out of reach. I'm often accused of calling 783 of the last two bubble pops (or was it 789? Forgive the imprecision). Like many others who have publicly explored the notion that the status quo isn't actually sustainable despite its remarkable tenaciousness, I am pilloried as a doom-and-gloomer (among other things, ahem).

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Rape in the British military: women speak out | The Economist

2022-04-28

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Almost two-thirds of women in the British armed forces have experienced sexual harassment, bullying or discrimination, yet few report their experience because of a culture of fear and impunity. What creates this culture, and how can it be addressed? 00:00 - Sexual harrassment in the British armed forces 01:17 - A culture of sexual harrassment 05:03 - Harassment can lead to serious assault 06:59 - Why women are often silenced by the military 10:30...

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Historic Inventory Continued In March, But Is It All Price Illusion, Too?

2022-04-28

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2022-04-28

The Census Bureau today released its advanced estimates for March trade. These include, among other accounts like imports and exports, preliminary results reported by retailers and wholesalers. That means, for our purposes, inventories. Oh my, was there ever more inventory. It was, apparently, widely expected that following an avalanche of goods building up over the previous five months the situation might calm down a touch.

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Euro$ #5 in Goods

2022-04-27

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2022-04-27

Last Friday, S&P Global (the merged successor to IHS Markit) reported that its PMI for German manufacturing fell to 54.1. It hadn’t been that low for more than a year and a half. Worse than that, the index for New Orders dropped below 50 for the first time since the middle of 2020. The excuses are plentiful, as there’s COVID, supply problems, Russia, a drop in demand. Wait, what was that last one?

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Dr Fauci: follow the science | The Economist

2022-04-26

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Death threats, misinformation and dedication to public service: Dr Anthony Fauci discusses his personal experiences of the covid–19 pandemic with The Economist’s deputy editor, Edward Carr. 00:00 - Who is Dr Anthony Fauci? 00:38 - Should scientists be apolitical? 01:30 - The importance of political neutrality 03:55 - Being a scientist in public service 05:30 - Has science become politicised? Watch the full discussion here:...

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Russian troops to unilaterally stop all hostilities to allow civilian evacuation in Mariupol

2022-04-26

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Russia has announced that it will allow civilians to evacuate from Azovstal steel plant amid the ongoing Russian invasion of Ukraine.

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Crash Is King

2022-04-26

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2022-04-26

This may be one of many revaluations of capital vis a vis labor and resources and core vis a vis periphery. You've heard the expression "cash is king." Very true. But it's equally true that "crash is king:" when speculative excesses collapse under their own extremes, the crash crushes all other narratives and becomes the dominant dynamic.

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SMART BOURSE – L’invité de la mi-journée : Thomas Costerg (Pictet WM)

2022-04-25

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Lundi 25 avril 2022, SMART BOURSE reçoit Thomas Costerg (Économiste sénior US, Pictet WM)

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Russia’s Sarmat intercontinental ballistic missile test is not a threat: United States | World News

2022-04-25

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Russia has test launched its Sarmat intercontinental ballistic missile, it's a new addition to the country's nuclear arsenal and Vladimir Putin has said that the missile will give Moscow's enemies something serious to ponder about.

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CNY’s Drop Wasn’t ‘Devaluation’ in ’15 nor ’18, and It Isn’t ‘Devaluation’ Now

2022-04-25

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2022-04-25

For one thing, that whole Bretton Woods 3 thing is really off to an interesting start. And by interesting, I mean predictably backward. According to its loud and leading proponent, China’s yuan was supposed to be ascending while the dollar sank, its first step toward what many still claim will end up in some biblical-like abyss.

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The (less) Dollars Behind Xi’s Shanghai of Shanghai

2022-04-25

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2022-04-25

What everyone is saying, because it’s convenient, is that China’s zero-COVID policies are going to harm the economy. No. Economic harm of the past is the reason for the zero-COVID policies. As I showed yesterday, the cracking down didn’t just show up around 2020, begun right out in the open years beforehand, born from the scattering ashes of globally synchronized growth.

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