Category Archive: 5) Global Macro

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Catalonia’s independence referendum, cartooned | The Economist

2017-10-06

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Catalonia’s independence referendum has ended with the Catalan president, Carles Puigdemont, stuck in a quagmire. Our cartoonist KAL talks through how he expressed those difficulties for his latest cartoon. Click here to subscribe to The Economist on YouTube: http://econ.trib.al/rWl91R7 Daily Watch: mind-stretching short films throughout the working week. For more from Economist Films visit: http://films.economist.com/ …

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Surprise! The Rules Will Change (But Not to Your Benefit)

2017-10-06

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2017-10-06

Aggregate balance sheet of Central Banks, 2000 - 2017
These expedient fixes end up crippling the mechanisms that are needed to actually solve the systemic sources of the crisis. We can add a third certainty to the two standard ones (death and taxes): The rules will suddenly change when a financial crisis strikes. Why is this a certainty? The answer is complex, as it draws on human nature, politics and the structure of societies/economies ruled by centralized states (governments). The Core Imperative...

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Run On The Pound? Jeremy Corbyn Says Should Plan For

2017-10-06

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2017-10-06

Fifty Pounds
Run On The Pound ? Jeremy Corbyn Says Should Plan For. Right to plan for ‘run on pound’ if Labour wins says Corbyn and Labour party . British pound already down 20% since Brexit, collapse already in play. Run on the pound likely due to Labour’s ‘command economy’ approach. Collapse in Sterling would undermine UK financial system. Portfolios holding sterling and related assets would be significantly affected. Pension funds and property the most...

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Zerohedge, Charles Hugh Smith, Inflation is most likely 7% and wages are stagnant.

2017-10-05

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♞ Charles Hugh Smith – TBuried In The Fed’s Report It Reveals The Truth About The Economy ♘

2017-10-05

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‘News Brief’ Report date: 10.05.2017 Guest: Charles Hugh Smith Books: Why Our Status Quo Failed and Is Beyond Reform Get a Job, Build a Real Career… Why Things Are Falling Apart and What We Can Do About It A Radically Beneficial World Most of artwork that are included with these videos have been created by …

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US: Reflation Check

2017-10-05

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2017-10-05

US Recovery, 1925 - 1945
There is a difference between reflation and recovery. The terms are similar and relate to the same things, but in many ways the latter requires first the former.  To get to recovery, the economy must reflate if in contraction it was beaten down in money as well as cyclical forces. In the Great Crash of 1929 and after, reflation was required because of the wholesale devastation of the money supply. 

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Hackers will pose a greater threat in 2018 | The Economist

2017-10-04

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Hackers will affect our daily lives in 2018 like never before. As more elements of our daily lives are linked to the internet, hackers will have greater opportunity to scale up cybercrimes, leaving our homes and personal lives more vulnerable to attack Click here to subscribe to The Economist on YouTube: http://econ.trib.al/rWl91R7 In 2018 cyber …

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This Chart Defines the 21st Century Economy

2017-10-04

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2017-10-04

Household Income Inequality, 1980 - 2014
There is nothing inevitable about such vast, fast-rising income-wealth inequality; it is the only possible output of our financial and pay-to-play political system. One chart defines the 21st century economy and thus its socio-political system: the chart of soaring wealth/income inequality. This chart doesn't show a modest widening in the gap between the super-wealthy (top 1/10th of 1%) and everyone else: there is a veritable Grand Canyon between...

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Stagnation Is Not Just the New Normal–It’s Official Policy

2017-10-04

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2017-10-04

US Productivity Growth, 1980 - 2017
Japan is a global leader is how to gracefully manage stagnation. Although our leadership is too polite to say it out loud, they've embraced stagnation as the new quasi-official policy. The reason is tragi-comically obvious: any real reform would threaten the income streams gushing into untouchably powerful self-serving elites and fiefdoms.

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Eurozone: Distinct Lack of Good Faith

2017-10-03

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2017-10-03

European Growth Baseline, Jan 1995 - 2017
The erosion of social order in any historical or geographic context is gradual; until it isn’t. Germany has always followed a keen sense of this process, having experienced it to every possible extreme between the World Wars. Hyperinflationary collapse doesn’t happen overnight; it took three years for the Weimar mark to disintegrate, and then Weimar Germany. Even Nazism wasn’t all it once. What was required was continued denial especially on the...

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Charles Hugh Smith On Why Wages Are Stagnant In The Developed World

2017-10-03

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Click here for the full transcript: http://financialrepressionauthority.com/2017/10/01/the-roundtable-insight-charles-hugh-smith-on-why-wages-are-stagnant-in-the-developed-world/

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Emerging Markets: Preview of the Week Ahead

2017-10-02

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2017-10-02

EM FX firmed Friday, but capped off a bad week overall. US jobs data this Friday is unlikely to provide much clarity on Fed policy, though we think it remains on track to hike again in December. The Fed’s balance sheet reduction will start this month. We remain negative on EM, and believe selling pressures are likely to persist in Q4.

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DANGER! The Demise Of The Dollar – Don’t Hold Your Breath! Charles Hugh Smith

2017-10-01

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Not Political Risk For China, But Unwelcome Reality

2017-10-01

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2017-10-01

PBOC Balance Sheet, Aug 2011 - 2017
China’s Communist Party concluded the Third Plenum of its 18th Congress in November 2013. It was the much-discussed reform mandate that many in the West took to mean another positive step toward neo-liberal reform. At its center was supposed to be a greater role for markets particularly in the central task of resource allocation. In some places, the Party’s General Secretary Xi Jinping was hailed as the great Chinese reformer.

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Location Transformation or HIBORMania

2017-10-01

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2017-10-01

HIBOR, Jun 2015 - Apr 2017
The Communist Chinese established their independence on September 21, 1949. The grand ceremony commemorating the political change was held in Tiananmen Square on October 1 that year. The following day, October 2, the Resolution on the National Day of the People’s Republic of China was passed making October 1to be China’s National holiday. It typically kicks off the second of China’s Golden Week holidays. The first relates to the Chinese New Year...

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Emerging Markets: What has Changed

2017-09-30

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2017-09-30

India Prime Minister Modi announced an INR163.2 bln program to deliver electricity to all households. Poland’s President Duda is trying to reach a compromise on judicial reforms. Fitch raised the outlook on Russia’s BBB- rating from stable to positive. Saudi Arabia announced it will remove the ban on women driving. South Africa’s biggest labor organization stepped up its opposition to President Zuma.

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It Was Collateral, Not That We Needed Any More Proof

2017-09-30

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2017-09-30

US Treasury, Jan - Sep 2017
Eleven days ago, we asked a question about Treasury bills and haircuts. Specifically, we wanted to know if the spike in the 4-week bill’s equivalent yield was enough to trigger haircut adjustments, and therefore disrupt the collateral chain downstream. Within two days of that move in bills, the GC market for UST 10s had gone insane.To be honest, it was a rhetorical exercise.

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The Real Estate View For A Second Lost Decade

2017-09-29

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2017-09-29

US Existing Home Sales, Jan 2011 - Jul 2017
The National Association of Realtor (NAR) reports today that sales of existing homes in the US were down 1.7% in August 2017 from July. At a seasonally-adjusted annual rate of 5.35 million, that’s the lowest pace for resales since July 2016. It is yet another data point reflecting the almost certain end of “reflation” in the economic sense.

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Catalonia’s independence referendum explained | The Economist

2017-09-28

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Catalonia’s independence referendum is due to take place on October 1st, in clear defiance of the Spanish government. We outline why some Catalans want independence from Spain, and why only 41% are likely to vote yes Click here to subscribe to The Economist on YouTube: http://econ.trib.al/rWl91R7 Tensions are rising in Catalonia. An independence referendum is …

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Little Behind CNY

2017-09-28

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2017-09-28

PBOC Balance Sheet, Aug 2010 - 2017
The framing is a bit clumsy, but the latest data in favor of the artificial CNY surge comes to us from Bloomberg. The mainstream views currency flows as, well, flows of currency. That’s what makes their description so maladroit, and it can often lead to serious confusion. A little translation into the wholesale eurodollar reality, however, clears it up nicely.

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