Category Archive: 5) Global Macro

2012 Posts on Global Macro

Debt, the Financial Cycle Determinant between 2011 and 2017

Between 2011 and 2017, the reduction of debt , the hunt on the rich and investment into countries with low debt will become the main rational expectation and the determinant of the next financial cycle.

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Quantitative Easing, Gold and the Swiss Franc

The main drivers of demand for Swiss francs are the euro crisis, but even more, the behavior of American investors, who go out of the dollar in the fear of further bad US economic data and of Quantitative Easing. This will push down the dollar, and safe-havens like the CHF, gold or the Japanese Yen up. … Continue reading »

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12-22-12 Macro Analytics – RECAPPING 2012 Charles Hugh Smith

As a regular MACRO ANALYTICS Co-Host, Charles Hugh Smith has recorded over 20 session in 2012, each averaging close to 30 slides for over 600 slides and 8-10 hours of viewing. Selecting the highlights is a daunting task.Distilling it down, there are some central messages that are worth taking the time to reinforce. ALL OF …

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The Biggest Bubble of the Century is Ending: Government Bond Yields

Government bond yields under 10 years for safe-havens are close to zero. In April 2013, even 20 year bond yields are less than 3%, What can explain this bubble of the century? Update August 16, 2013: So, 10-year Treasury yields have ended the day closer to 3 per cent. But not as close as they … Continue reading »

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Global Purchasing Manager Indices, Update December 17

Manufacturing PMIs are considered to be the leading and most important economic indicators.  Since the Fed’s QE3, this is the third month of improvements in global PMIs after a strong slowing in summer 2012.   January 25th Expansion-contraction ratio: There are as many countries that show values above 50 as under 50. Positive-negative-change ratio: 18 countries …

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Main US Economic Indicators

The four best “recession” indicators, in form of coincident economic indicators, can be seen at Doug Short/Advisor Perspectives Update September 2013   Update December 21th, 2012   We observe the following: US indicators point upwards, when the rest of the world is slowing. After capital left many emerging markets and Europe, this capital helps the United States …

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10-30-12 Macro Analytics – LESSONS FROM JAPAN – Charles Hugh Smith

Japan has experienced massive debt buildup, a growing interest payment burden, long term economic stagnation and now an emerging trade deficit. The question posed in this discussion between Gordon T Long and Charles High Smith is: “how has Japan avoided an economc death spiral?”. Japan has been a model and case study in stagnation and …

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10-27-12 Macro Analytics – CONSTITUTIONAL PRESSURES – Charles Hugh Smith

The importance of SOUND MONEY can not be overstated. The principle of sound money is a central pillar in the protection of the public’s constitutional rights, the control of relentless government spending and the restriction of political ‘reach’ and growth of socialist programs. This fundamental guiding tenet was well understood prior to the founding of …

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11-06-12 Macro Analytics – Triffin’s Paradox – Rule of Law – Charles Hugh Smith

The Triffin’s Paradox is a theory that when a national currency also serves as an international reserve currency, there could be conflicts of interest between short-term domestic and long-term international economic objectives. This dilemma was first identified by Belgian-American economist Robert Triffin in the 1960s, who pointed out that the country whose currency foreign nations …

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Global Purchasing Manager Indices, Update December 10

  Manufacturing PMIs are considered to be the most leading and important economic indicators. Jim O’Neill, Chairman of Goldman Sachs Asset Management, believes the PMI numbers are among the most reliable economic indicators in the world.  BlackRock’s Russ Koesterich thinks it’s one of the most underrated indicators. Global Purchasing Manager Indices for the manufacturing industry   December 3, 2012 …

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Die Wiederwahl Obamas bedeutet nichts Gutes für die Schweiz

  Barack Obama war und ist der präferierte Kandidat vieler Schweizer. Obama scheint der Mann von Welt zu sein, während vom konservativen Mitt Romney eher feindselige Politik gegen Russland, China und Iran zu erwarten ist. Daher sind die Neutralität- und Frieden-liebenden Schweizer eher auf Obamas Seite. Aber auch wirtschaftspolitisch scheinen viele Eidgenossen Obama zu mögen. …

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Again Flawed Data for Jobs

Some ten days ago, we examined in detail why the monthly job data was no conspiracy as Jack Welch maintained, but  simply flawed. Similarly as  David Rosenberg we said that the way the BLS obtains data for the household survey was error-prone. Gluskin Sheff’s David Rosenberg That the 7.8 percent jobless rate takes it to the …

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IMF World Economic Outlook

Alexander Gloy is founder and president of Lighthouse Investment Management       The IMF’s (International Monetary Fund) “World Economic Outlook”, a slim 250-page piece, came out. Some excerpts: Substantial reductions in estimated output (GDP) growth for 2013 for all major countries:   Unemployment in the Euro-Area (“EA”) is now expected to rise above the level …

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Conspiracy? Why the Jobs Report Was not Cooked, but simply Flawed

Conspiracy ? Huge Differences Between the Payrolls Report and the Household Survey based on the extracts of Robert Oak, Noslaves.com and his blog on Economic Populist It’s a conspiracy! The BLS is trying to swing the election! They’re cookin’ de books! By now you’ve seen the claims, accusations and mumblings by the pundits, press, twitter and blogosphere. So …

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09 25 12 Macro Analytics Federal Reserve False Perceptions Part 2 Charles Hugh Smith

The Federal Reserve and its Monetary Malpractice is at the core of the American Dream becoming a myth for the vast majority of Americans. Jobs, disposable income and financial security are all under pressure, as the Federal Reserve continues its historic monetary gamble on unproven policies of Quantitative Easing and ZIRP. Charles Hugh Smith and …

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The “Beautiful” De-Leveraging

A beautiful deleveraging balances the three options. In other words, there is a certain amount of austerity, there is a certain amount of debt restructuring, and there is a certain amount of printing of money. When done in the right mix, it isn’t dramatic. It doesn’t produce too much deflation or too much depression. There is slow growth, but it is positive slow growth. At the same time, ratios of debt-to-incomes go down. That’s a beautiful...

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It’s not simply QE3

Submitted by Mark Chandler, from marctomarkets.com The outcome of the FOMC meeting is not just a new round of quantitative easing, some might call it QE3. What the Fed announced represents a new chapter in its policy response. The first distinguishing aspect of its decision is the open-ended nature of it. While it has not indicated … Continue reading...

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