Category Archive: 5) Global Macro

09-11-12-Macro Analytics – Marginal Return – Charles Hugh Smith

When risk factored returns are examined around the world, there is a very evident pattern. Without the application of excessive leverage, returns are consistently seen to be wanting. Unrecognized, ignored or ineffectively hedged risk is being increasingly being assumed to achieve marginal returns. Moral Hazard and Unintended Consequences due to Monetary Malpractice has left the …

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09-08-12-Macro Analytics – INEQUALITY Precedes SOCIAL UNREST – Charles Hugh Smith

Over the last decade the gap between the ‘have’s’ and ‘have nots’ has widened to levels not seen since the Gilded Age in America. History teaches us that the price of inequality is social unrest. Nobel Laureate Joseph Stiglitz in his new book “Freefall” outlines how the American Dream is now a myth. The middle …

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Brad DeLong on Jackson Hole and Quantitative Easing

  Berkeley Professor Brad DeLong has delivered a nice allegorical entry in his type pad on a quick Quantitative Easing. Letting speak old greek mythological figures he hides his personal opinion. A half now completely written platonic dialogue on what the Federal Reserve is Doing — or not Doing — Right Now DeLong explains the …

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10) Global Macro



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Net Speculative Positions , Global Markets and Outlook, week from August 20

Currency Positioning and Outlook, week from August 20 Submitted by Mark Chandler, from marctomarkets.com The market is like expectant parents who don’t know the gender of the fetus.   They know something big is around the corner, but they don’t have enough information to make some important decisions.  They can contemplate the future, but there …

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Fed Violates its Own Inflation Targets. Should QE3 Be Postponed?

  At this year’s Jackson Hole symposium, Ben Bernanke promised to help the economy via further easing if  needed. We doubt his promises because because the Fed might contradict their inflation targets. Current levels of around 2 % for the consumer price inflation excluding food and energy (“core CPI“) and the deflator of the GDP …

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Volatility ETFs’ crazy churn

Two volatility ETFs (VXX and UVXY) are having almost half of the trading volume in the world’s largest ETF (SPY). How come?   First, the facts:   SPY is heavily traded (19% of assets daily turnover) compared to IVV (also referring to the S&P 500). But then come the volatility ETFs. Tiny VIXY (assets $145m) … Continue reading...

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Global PMIs Contracting More – Are Stocks Overvalued?

updated August 05,2012 We publish a detailed analysis of global PMIs and compare them with the main risk indicators S&P500, Copper, Brent and AUD/USD some days after most PMIs came out. Abstract: Thanks to positive US consumer confidence, stock markets are highly valued, whereas the Purchasing Manager Indices (PMIs) for the manufacturing industry are contracting …

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Financialization and Crony Capitalism Have Gutted the Middle Class

The neofeudal colonization of the "home market" has transformed the middle class into debt serfs. According to the conventional account, the Great American Middle Class has been eroded by rising energy costs, globalization, and the declining purchasing power of the U.S. dollar in the four decades since 1973.

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07-10-12 – CENTRAL PLANNING – Charles Hugh Smith – MACRO ANALYTICS

Gordon T Long and Charles Hugh Smith discuss the proven failure of Centralized Planning and why this lesson must be revisited today to avoid the authoritarian roadmap we appear to be presently on.

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07-03-12 – STATISM – Part I I – Charles Hugh Smith- MACRO ANALYTICS.wmv

In Part II of this 2 part series, Gordon T Long and Charles Hugh Smith discuss Statism and how the US has placed itself on a self reinforcing roadmap towards this increasingly likely destination point.

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07-03-12 – STATISM – Part I – Charles Hugh Smith – MACRO ANALYTICS

In Part I of this 2 part series, Gordon T Long and Charles Hugh Smith discuss Statism and how the US has placed itself on a self reinforcing roadmap towards this potential destructive destination.

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Non-Farm Payrolls: Today’s preview

A detailed comparison of Non-Farm Payroll estimators from six different sources, like Bloomberg, ISM, Department of Labor and ADP.

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Global Macro with all Global PMIs July 4th

updated July 4,2012 This page inside our macro data menu contains global PMIs  compared with the main risk indicators S&P500, Copper, Brent and AUD/USD as of the day after most PMIs came out. JP Morgan’s Global PMI:  Click for details inside the table, History of composite PMI  

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Quantitative Easing Indicators, June 2012

The main drivers for demand for Swiss francs are the Euro crisis, but even more the behavior of American investors, who go out of the dollar in the fear of further bad US economic data and in the fear of Quantitative Easing. This will push down the dollar and safe-havens like the CHF, gold or the … Continue reading »

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05-29-12 – PEAK EVERYTHING – Charles Hugh Smith – MACRO ANALYTICS.wmv

Charles Hugh Smith and Gordon T Long discuss how the financial markets are showing a mulitude of signs of clear peaks. Peaks across the board that are linked by cause and effect. Altogether, they can best be described as “PEAK EVERYTHING”.

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The latest bubble: Real estate in Russia

Still a draft, From Barnaul, Siberia, Russia Inna, 28, is a high-school teacher, she has one child. Her monthly salary is 8’500 Russian Rubel, about 257 USD. Similarly as many state employees her salary is very low. Recently the state doubled the salary of policemen and soldiers from 20’000 RUB to 40’000 RUB. A main …

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05-26-12 – CRONY CAPITALISM – Charles Hugh Smith – MACRO ANALYTICS.wmv

Charles Hugh Smith and Gordon T Long discuss Crony Capitalism. What is it, the central issues it is presently causing and what can and must be done to stop its insidious and relentless expansion in America.

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