Category Archive: 5) Global Macro

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Emerging Markets: What Changed

2018-03-03

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2018-03-03

China plans to change its constitution to eliminate term limits for President Xi Jinping. Bank Indonesia Deputy Governor Perry Warjiyo was nominated by President Widodo to be the next Governor. Bank of Korea Governor Lee was reappointed by President Moon for a second term. Hungary ruling party candidate lost the mayoral vote in Hodmezovasarhely. S&P upgraded Russia to BBB- with stable outlook.

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Our Fragmented Labor Markets Defy Outdated Conventions

2018-03-03

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2018-03-03

Annual Growth of Hourly Earnings, Jan 1965 - 2018
There are hundreds of extraordinarily diverse labor markets in the U.S. economy, and it takes a much more granulated approach to make any sense of this highly fragmented and dynamic marketplace. onventional economists/media pundits typically view the labor market as monolithic, i.e. as one unified market. The reality is the labor market is highly fragmented. Thus it's little wonder that conventional measures are giving mixed signals on employment,...

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Charles Hugh Smith On The Current Conditions In The Financial Markets

2018-03-03

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Click here for the full transcript: http://financialrepressionauthority.com/2018/03/02/the-roundtable-insight-charles-hugh-smith-on-the-current-conditions-in-the-financial-markets/

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Career Advice to 20-Somethings: Create Value as a Mobile Creative

2018-03-02

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2018-03-02

Federal Government; Consumer Credit, Student Loans; Asset, Level, 2005 - 2018
Finding work that fits who you are is rarely easy, especially if you don't fit into the mainstream, and usually it requires a lot of compromises, hard work and dead-ends. But that’s the process. Establishing a satisfying career is difficult in today's economy, doubly so for those who find life within hierarchical institutions (corporate America and government) unrewarding, and triply so for those burdened with student loan debt and college...

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Bi-Weekly Economic Review: One Down, Three To Go

2018-03-01

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2018-03-01

US Leading Index, 1984 - 2018
We pay particular attention to broad based indicators of growth. The Chicago Fed National Activity Index and the Conference Board’s Leading Economic Indicators are examples. We watch them because we are mostly interested in identifying inflection points in the broad economy and aren’t as interested in the details. Why? Because, while bear markets do happen outside of recession, it is rare and unpredictable.

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New Home Sales (Predictably) Fall Out of the Boom, Too

2018-02-28

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2018-02-28

US Housing Construction, Jan 1985 - Jan 2018
New home sales were down sharply again in January 2018. For the second straight month, the level of purchase activity fell substantially despite what are otherwise always described as robust or even booming economic conditions. Like the sales of existing homes, the sales of newly constructed units should be both moving upward as well as being significantly more than stuck at this low level.

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Jeffrey Snider Monetary Evolution, Development of the Shadow Banking System

2018-02-26

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Jeffrey Snider Monetary Evolution, Development of the Shadow Banking System

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Can horse taming prevent reoffending? | The Economist

2018-02-26

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This Arizona prison is teaching inmates how to break-in wild horses in the hope that the skills they learn will stop them from reoffending. So far, of the 50 inmates that have taken part, only two have found themselves back behind bars after being released. Click here to subscribe to The Economist on YouTube: http://econ.st/2F8I0jB …

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Emerging Markets: Week Ahead Preview

2018-02-26

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2018-02-26

EM FX ended Friday on a mixed note and capped off a soft week overall. Best performers last week were ZAR, CLP, and PHP while the worst were TRY, ARS, and IDR. Fed Chief Powell’s testimony to Congress will likely draw market attention back to Fed policy.

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Venezuela’s New Cryptocurrency: Just Another Form of Control Fraud

2018-02-25

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2018-02-25

Black Market Exchange Rate, 2010 - 2018
The broke and broken country of Venezuela appears to be the first nation-state to issue a cryptocurrency token (the petro) as a means of escaping the financial black hole that's consuming its economy: Maduro Launches Oil-Backed Crypto "For The Welfare Of Venezuela".

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Emerging Markets: What Changed

2018-02-24

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2018-02-24

China regulators have taken over Anbang Insurance. Group for at least one year. RBI minutes from this month’s meeting were more hawkish than expected. The RBI is reportedly reviewing its process for allowing local companies to issue debt overseas. Effective June 1, IDR-denominated debt becomes eligible for the Barclays Global Aggregate Index.Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu is coming under increasing pressure.

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Russian spies in America, then and now | The Economist

2018-02-23

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Russia is accused of trying to influence the US election, which led to the Trump presidency. In a rare interview one of the Soviet Union’s highest-ranking KGB spies talks about the long-standing practice of subverting Western democracy. Click here to subscribe to The Economist on YouTube: http://econ.st/2F3pPvw Daily Watch: mind-stretching short films throughout the working …

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The End of (Artificial) Stability

2018-02-23

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2018-02-23

Asset Prices vs GDP, 1992 - 2016
The central banks'/states' power to maintain a permanent bull market in stocks and bonds is eroding. There is nothing natural about the stability of the past 9 years. The bullish trends in risk assets are artificial constructs of central bank/state policies. As these policies are reduced or lose their effectiveness, the era of artificial stability is coming to a close. The 9-year run of Bull-trend stability is ending as a result of a confluence of...

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US-China Trade War Escalates As Further Measures Are Taken

2018-02-21

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2018-02-21

US China
US-China Trade War Escalates As Further Measures Are Taken. Trade war between two superpowers continues to escalate. White House likely to impose steep tariffs on aluminium and steel imports on ‘national security grounds’. US may impose global tariff of at least 24% on imports of steel and 7.7% on aluminium. China “will certainly take necessary measures to protect our legitimate rights.”

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How to stop the ivory trade | The Economist

2018-02-20

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If ivory poaching continues at its current rate the African elephant could be extinct within decades. Science is being used to better map ivory-trafficking routes, but will it be enough to save the iconic animal? Click here to subscribe to The Economist on YouTube: http://econ.st/2sIlitG The African elephant population has been decimated by poaching over …

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Our Approaching Winter of Discontent

2018-02-20

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2018-02-20

Black Market Exchange Rate of Venezuelan Bolivar to US Dollar, 2010 - 2018
The tragedy is so few act when the collapse is predictably inevitable, but not yet manifesting in daily life. That chill you feel in the financial weather presages an unprecedented--and for most people, unexpectedly severe--winter of discontent. Rather than sugarcoat what's coming, let's speak plainly for a change: none of the promises that have been made to you will be kept.

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RMR: Special Guest – Charles Hugh Smith – Of Two Minds (02/19/2018)

2018-02-19

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Charles and “V” discuss the 13 indictments that show absolutely the stupidity of the Mueller investigation, the opportunity ahead with blockchain, cryptocurrency and why it’s important to take advantage now. We are political scientists, editorial engineers, and radio show developers drawn together by a shared vision of bringing Alternative news through digital mediums that evangelize …

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Emerging Markets: Week Ahead Preview

2018-02-19

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2018-02-19

EM FX ended on a mixed note Friday, but capped off a very strong week overall. Best performers over the past week were RUB, ZAR, and COP, while the worst were PHP, CNY, and TWD. There is not much happening this week that could disrupt the weak dollar narrative, and so EM FX should continue to rally.

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US IP On The Other Side of Harvey and Irma

2018-02-19

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2018-02-19

US Industrial Production, Jan 1995 - 2018
Industrial Production in the US was revised to a lower level for December 2017, and then was slightly lower still in the first estimates for January 2018. Year-over-year, IP was up 3.7%. However, more than two-thirds of the gain was registered in September, October, and November (and nearly all the rest in just the single month of April 2017).

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Our emerging market currencies scorecard gives good marks to real and rouble

2018-02-18

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2018-02-18

The scope of this note is to present a score card for Emerging Market (EM)currencies, designed to assess the attractiveness of a given currency over the coming 12 months. The scorecard (see chart), constructed using a rules - based methodology, suggests that the Russian rubble and the Brazilian real are currently among the most attractive EM currencies.

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