Category Archive: 5) Global Macro

Filter archive by: Show All Show only Articles Show only Videos

Global Asset Allocation Update: Tariffs Don’t Warrant A Change…Yet

2018-03-12

by

2018-03-12

Moderate Allocation
There is no change to the risk budget this month. For the moderate risk investor the allocation to bonds is 50%, risk assets 45% and cash 5%. We have had continued volatility since the last update but the market action so far is pretty mundane. The initial selloff halted at the 200 day moving average and the rebound carried to just over the 50 day moving average.

Read More »

Emerging Markets: Preview Week Ahead

2018-03-12

by

2018-03-12

EM FX ended Friday on a firm note and capped off a mostly firmer week. MXN, KRW, and ZAR were the best performers last week, while CLP, CZK, and PLN were the worst. US jobs data was mixed, with markets focusing on weak average hourly earnings rather than on the strong NFP number. Still, the data did nothing to change market expectations for a 25 bp by the FOMC this month.

Read More »

China Exports: Trump Tariffs, Booming Growth, or Tainted Trade?

2018-03-11

by

2018-03-11

China Exports, Jan 2008 - Jan 2018
China’s General Administration of Customs reported that Chinese exports to all other countries were in February 2018 an incredible 44.5% more than they were in February 2017. Such a massive growth rate coming now has served to intensify the economic boom narrative.

Read More »

Forget “Free Trade”–It’s All About Capital Flows

2018-03-11

by

2018-03-11

Corporate Profits after Tax, 1950 - 2017
Defenders and critics of "free trade" and globalization tend to present the issue as either/or: it's inherently good or bad. In the real world, it's not that simple. The confusion starts with defining free trade (and by extension, globalization).

Read More »

CHARLES HUGH SMITH – Has The Date Been Set For The Great Economic Collapse

2018-03-10

by

Economic collapse and financial crisis is rising any moment. Getting informed about collapse and crisis may earn you, or prevent to lose money. SUBSCRIBE FINANCIAL GUIDE for Latest on Financial News,Gold News,Silver News, Stock Market News,Bitcoin News,Political News,Oil News,Economic News,Economic Collapse News ..

Read More »

Charles Hugh Smith What’s Your Job Worth work, money and automation

2018-03-10

by

Charles Hugh Smith What’s Your Job Worth work, money and automation

Read More »

Emerging Markets: What Changed

2018-03-10

by

2018-03-10

Indonesia will freeze prices for electricity, gasoline, and diesel fuel until next year. US President Trump and North Korean President Kim Jong Un will hold a summit meeting this spring. National Bank of Poland has tilted even more dovish. Moody’s downgraded Turkey a notch to Ba2 with a stable outlook. Saudi Arabian Energy Minister hinted that the Aramco IPO could be delayed until 2019. Tanzania finally obtained a sovereign rating after years of...

Read More »

March 24, 2018 ! Charles Hugh Smith Has The Date Been Set For The Great Economic Collapse

2018-03-09

by

Please Subscribe to my NEW Channel! Thank You. March 24, 2018 ! Charles Hugh Smith Has The Date Been Set For The Great Economic Collapse. Financial writer Charles Hugh Smith sees one very big problem coming at us, and that is a dramatic loss in buying power of the U.S. dollar, but it’s not just …

Read More »

How powerful is your passport? | The Economist

2018-03-09

by

Passports can tell you a lot about a country. Colour can be a statement of national identity, state religion, or international co-operation. But not all passports are equal. Click here to subscribe to The Economist on YouTube: http://econ.st/2Gbhx2T Daily Watch: mind-stretching short films throughout the working week. For more from Economist Films visit: http://econ.st/2GeS3C1 Check …

Read More »

The Death of Buy and Hold: We’re All Traders Now

2018-03-09

by

2018-03-09

Asset Prices vs GDP, 1992 - 2016
The percentage of household assets invested in stocks fell from almost 40% in 1969 to a mere 13% in 1982, after thirteen years of grinding losses. The conventional wisdom of financial advisors--to save money and invest it in stocks and bonds "for the long haul"--a "buy and hold" strategy that has functioned as the default setting of financial planning for the past 60 years--may well be disastrously wrong for the next decade.

Read More »

Jeffrey Snider: Since 2008 major turning points in Gold have been punctuated by Eurodollar anomalies

2018-03-09

by

Erik Townsend and Patrick Ceresna welcome Jeffrey Snider to MacroVoices. Erik and Jeffrey discuss gold swaps, how central banks engage in them and what has changed in gold swap markets today. They further investigate the gold bug’s conspiracy theory about “gold pukes” and what happened to gold in the 2008 crisis. They finally touch on …

Read More »

Is the pope head of the world’s most powerful government? | The Economist

2018-03-08

by

Is the pope head of the world’s most powerful government? The pope represents over one billion people, his government has a permanent presence at the United Nations and he runs the oldest diplomatic service on earth. We asked the man behind the Vatican’s foreign policy to explain how the world’s smallest country could house the …

Read More »

China Going Boom

2018-03-08

by

2018-03-08

China Gross Domestic Product, Apr 1993 - 2017
For a very long time, they tried it “our” way. It isn’t working out so well for them any longer, so in one sense you can’t blame them for seeking answers elsewhere. It was a good run while it lasted. The big problem is that what “it” was wasn’t ever our way. Not really. The Chinese for decades followed not a free market paradigm but an orthodox Economics one. This is no trivial difference, as the latter is far more easily accomplished in a place...

Read More »

Can conservation save our ocean? | The Economist

2018-03-08

by

The ocean is facing its greatest ever challenge – overfishing, pollution and climate change are all threatening the health of a resource on which the whole world depends. Click here to subscribe to The Economist on YouTube: http://econ.st/2G3TH9d The crew of this ship is on a mission to try and save one of the most …

Read More »

Never Mind Volatility: Systemic Risk Is Rising

2018-03-07

by

2018-03-07

S&P 500, 2008 - 2018
So who's holding the hot potato of systemic risk now? Everyone. One of the greatest con jobs of the past 9 years is the status quo's equivalence of risk and volatility: risk = volatility: so if volatility is low, then risk is low. Wrong: volatility once reflected specific short-term aspects of risk, but measures of volatility such as the VIX have been hijacked to generate the illusion that risk is low.

Read More »

Jeffrey Snider // Gold swaps and how do central banks engage in them

2018-03-05

by

Erik Townsend welcomes Jeffrey Snider to MacroVoices. Erik and Jeffrey discuss: — Gold swaps and how do central banks engage in them — What has changed in gold swaps, how are they done.

Read More »

China: February PMIs point to deceleration in industrial activity

2018-03-05

by

2018-03-05

China’s official manufacturing Purchasing Manager Index (PMI) for February, compiled by the National Bureau of Statistics of China and the China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing, came in at 50.3, down from 51.3 in January and 51.6 in December 2017. This is the lowest reading of this gauge since October 2016. The Markit PMI (also known as the Caixin PMI), however, edged up slightly to 51.6 in February from 51.5 in the previous month

Read More »

Emerging Markets: Week Ahead Preview

2018-03-05

by

2018-03-05

EM FX ended Friday on a mixed note, capping off a largely softer week.  Best performers last week for MYR and TWD while the worst were ZAR and ARS.  US stocks clawed back early losses and ended the week on a firmer note but we think further market turbulence is likely. 

Read More »

Data Distortions One Way Or Another

2018-03-04

by

2018-03-04

China Manufacturing PMI, Feb 2007 - 2018
Back in October, we noted the likely coming of two important distortions in global economic data. The first was here at home in the form of Mother Nature. The other was over in China where Communist officials were gathering as they always do in their five-year intervals. That meant, potentially. In the US our economic data for a few months at least will be on shaky ground due to the lingering economic impacts of severe hurricanes.

Read More »

Durable and Capital Goods, Distortions Big And Small

2018-03-04

by

2018-03-04

US Durable Goods Orders, Jan 2013 - 2018
New orders for durable goods, excluding transportation industries, rose 9.1% year-over-year (NSA) in January 2018. Shipments of the same were up 8.8%. These rates are in line with the acceleration that began in October 2017 coincident to the aftermath of hurricanes Harvey and Irma. In that way, they are somewhat misleading.

Read More »