Category Archive: 4) FX Trends

Main Author Marc Chandler
Marc Chandler
He has been covering the global capital markets in one fashion or another for more than 30 years, working at economic consulting firms and global investment banks. After 14 years as the global head of currency strategy for Brown Brothers Harriman, Chandler joined Bannockburn Global Forex, as a managing partner and chief markets strategist as of October 1, 2018.
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Great Graphic: Bottom Building on CRB Commodity Index?

2016-03-28

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2016-03-28

Marc Chandler shows that after the commodity currency Canadian Dollar, also the CRB Commodity index could have found a bottom. See here his Great Graphic on the CAD bottom buildung. See also the CAD resilience despite falling oil prices.

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NZDUSD corrects higher in trading today but runs into resistance_March 28, 2016

2016-03-28

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The NZDUSD has been moving to the downside over the prior 6 or so trading days. Today is a different story with the price correcting higher. Is the selling over or was this just a corrective move that has shaken out a few shorts? The technical levels are telling the story. In this video, Greg …

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Four Keys to The Week Ahead

2016-03-27

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2016-03-27

There are four events that will shape market psychology in the week ahead.  They are Yellen's speech to the NY Economic Club, US jobs data, eurozone March CPI and PMI, and Japan's Tankan Survey.   The broad backdrop is characterized by the rebuilding of risk appetites since the middle of February, though the MSCI emerging market … Continue reading...

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Weekly Speculative Position: Yen Longs Near Record Levels

2016-03-26

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2016-03-26

The most extreme speculative positioning, judging from the futures market is the long yen position.  The bulls added another 3.4k contracts, lifting the gross long position to 82.8k contracts.  The record was set in 2008 at 94.7k contracts.   The gross short position was trimmed by 4.5k contracts, leaving 29.5k.  It is the smallest gross short position …

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FX Review Week March 21- March 25

2016-03-26

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2016-03-26

The US dollar rose against all the major and most emerging market currencies last week. After selling off following the ECB and FOMC meetings, the dollar found better traction.  It was helped by widening interest rate differentials.  Regional Fed manufacturing surveys for March suggest the quarter is ending on a firm note.  With new orders rising, …

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Great Graphic: Has the Canadian Dollar Bottomed Out?

2016-03-24

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2016-03-24

We have been looking for a bottom in the US dollar against the Canadian dollar.  It is been difficult, but now it appears that the technicals are turning.  This Great Graphic, from Bloomberg, shows that the US dollar is moving above a trend line...

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Is that Buzzing Sound Helicopter Money?

2016-03-24

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2016-03-24

Helicopter money is the rage.  Central banks are talking about it.  Economists are debating it.  The media is rife with coverage.     While it sounds important, it is not precisely clear what helicopter money means. It appears to have originated with Milton Friedman.  In 1969, he wrote: "Let us suppose now that one day a helicopter … Continue reading »

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ECB, Corporate Bonds, and Credibility

2016-03-23

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2016-03-23

The euro's rallied shortly after the ECB announced numerous monetary measures that in their totality were more than expected.  Many saw this as proof that monetary policy had lost its effectiveness, and central banks have lost credibility.    R...

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Forex technical analysis: GBPUSD looking for a short term bottom. Maybe…

2016-03-23

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The GBPUSD has fallen again today and in the process fell below a trend line on the 4-hour chart, but is the intraday price action telling us that perhaps the bottom may be forming? There is some support at the 1.4100 area to perhaps suggest one is in place. Here is why…

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Great Graphic: Brexit Fears Boost Sterling Put Buying

2016-03-23

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2016-03-23

The UK referendum is three months away.   Three-month options are a common benchmark for various market segments; from speculators, to fund managers to corporations.  Events over the past week have raised the risks that the UK votes to leave the EU. The market has responded forcefully today, and even if you only follow the spot …

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Forex technical analysis: The EURUSD has room to roam.

2016-03-23

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In the morning video, I look at the EURUSD and outline the bias and explain why there is room to roam and the target for trading today.

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Brexit Risks Rising

2016-03-22

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2016-03-22

  Many banks suggested that Swiss Franc long is the trade to hedge against the Brexit risk.Therefore this text by Marc Chandler is quite important for Switzerland. An ill-conceived strategy undermined by mismanagement and bad fortune is increasing the risks that the UK votes to leave the EU in June.    Nearly everything that could, has …

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GBPUSD: What is the price action and technical tools telling us

2016-03-22

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The GBPUSD has moved lower in trading today, but failed on a break of a technical support level. The pair has corrected and is moving back down. What is the price action and technical tools telling us? Who is in control and why? I will explain.

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Great Graphic: 10-Year Break-Evens and Oil

2016-03-22

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2016-03-22

Until last September, the Federal Reserve seems to play down the market-based measures of inflation expectations, preferring the surveys that showed views were anchored.    At the September 2015 FOMC meeting where the Fed had been expected to tighten until the August turmoil, officials cited among other considerations, the decline in market-based measures of inflation expectations. …

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Forex Technical Analysis:What now for the EURUSD after Belgium bombing

2016-03-22

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The Belgium terrorist bombings sent the EURUSD lower and traders scrambling. However there has been a rebound off the lows. What now as there is more calm?

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FX Daily, March 22: Terrorist Strike in Brussels Causes Market Angst

2016-03-22

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2016-03-22

A series of attacks at Brussels airport and metro casts a pall over the market.  The attacks come as Europe prepares what for many will be a long holiday weekend.  Gold, the dollar and yen seem to have been the beneficiaries.   Bonds are generally firmer and equities lower.   However, in late morning activity in London, …

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Emerging Markets: Preview of the Week Ahead

2016-03-20

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2016-03-20

EM ended the week on a mixed note after posting strong post-FOMC gains. The bounce in risk seems likely to continue this week, with little on the horizon to derail it. Specific country risk remains in play, however, with heightened political concerns in Brazil and South Africa. Taiwan reports February export orders Monday, which are …

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FX Daily: When a Quarter is Two Halves

2016-03-20

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2016-03-20

The year started off poorly, to say the least. Equity markets plunged from the get-go.  The Nikkei, DAX and S&P 500 gapped lower on the first trading day of the year.   Emerging markets and commodities were smashed.   Many economists blamed the Federal Reserve for hiking rates in mid-December.   Pundits warned that the seven-year bull … Continue...

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Weekly Speculative Positions: Pile into Sterling and Take Profits on Long Aussie

2016-03-19

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2016-03-19

After a relatively quiet period into the run-up to the ECB, speculative activity markedly increased in the CFTC reporting week ending the day prior to the conclusion of the FOMC meeting. Two speculative gross currency position adjustments stand out.  First, speculators appeared to have bought a record amount of sterling contracts.  The gross long position more …

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