Category Archive: 4) FX Trends

Main Author Marc Chandler
Marc Chandler
He has been covering the global capital markets in one fashion or another for more than 30 years, working at economic consulting firms and global investment banks. After 14 years as the global head of currency strategy for Brown Brothers Harriman, Chandler joined Bannockburn Global Forex, as a managing partner and chief markets strategist as of October 1, 2018.
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VIDEO: USDJPY bangs against lower support as market prepares for US employment

2017-01-05

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January 5, 2017. US employment report up tomorrow The USDJPY has moved lower in trading today and tests a support area defined by some key swing levels going back two years ago. That area comes in between 115.96 and 116.09. Below that is the 61.8% of the move down from the 2015 high at the …

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FX Daily, January 05: Dollar Slide but Resilience Demonstrated while Yuan Squeezed Higher

2017-01-05

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2017-01-05

FX Performance, January 05 2017 Movers and Shakers
There are two main developments. First, the high degree of uncertainty expressed in the FOMC minutes and the repeated references to the strong dollar spurred a wave of dollar selling. The dollar retreated in Asia, but European participants saw the pullback as a new buying opportunity.

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Nomi Prins’ Political-Financial Road Map For 2017

2017-01-05

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2017-01-05

2017 Just Ahead
As tumultuous as last year was from a global political perspective on the back of a rocky start market-wise, 2017 will be much more so. The central bank subsidization of the financial system (especially in the US and Europe) that began with the Fed invoking zero interest rate policy in 2008, gave way to international distrust of the enabling status quo that unfolded in different ways across the planet.

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Money, Markets, & Mayhem – What To Expect In The Year Ahead

2017-01-05

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2017-01-05

Houses
If you thought 2016 was full of market maelstroms and geopolitical gotchas, 2017's 'known unknowns' suggest a year of more mayhem awaits... Here's a selection of key events in the year ahead (and links to Bloomberg's quick-takes on each).

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FX Daily, January 04: Consolidation in Capital Markets

2017-01-04

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2017-01-04

FX Performance, January 04 2017 Movers and Shakers
GBP/CHF rates have jumped during the first official day of trading in 2017, with the pair hitting 1.2657 at today’s high. The Pound gained support this morning following positive UK Manufacturing data, which came in well above market expectation. This increased market confidence in the UK economy and the Pound has ultimately benefited as a result, gaining a cent on the CHF.

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Forex technical analysis: EURUSD higher but stalling at resistance

2017-01-04

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100 and 200 hour MAs, 38.2% and 2015 low keeping a lid on the pair The EURUSD is trading higher on the day but is running into resistance against MA, retracement and an old low from 2015. What needs to happen to turn the bias more bullish? Greg Michalowski of ForexLive takes a technical look … Continue...

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A Few Takeaways from the Latest IMF Reserve Figures

2017-01-04

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2017-01-04

Official Foreign Exchange Reserves by Currency
Overall reserve holdings hardly changed in Q3. China continues to bleed its reserves from unallocated to allocated. Sterling's share of new reserves warns it may be losing some allure.

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European Stocks Greet The New Year By Rising To One Year Highs; Euro Slides

2017-01-04

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2017-01-04

Markit Eurozone Manufacturing PMI
While most of the world is enjoying it last day off from the 2017 holiday transition, with Asia's major markets closed for the New Year holiday, along with Britain and Switzerland in Europe and the US and Canada across the Atlantic, European stocks climbed to their highest levels in over a year on Monday after the Markit PMI survey showed manufacturing production in the Eurozone rose to the highest level since April 2011.

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FX Daily, January 03: Dollar-Bloc and Sterling Advance, while Euro and Yen Slip

2017-01-03

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2017-01-03

FX Performance, January 03 2017 Movers and Shakers
The US dollar is mixed. After a soft start in Asia, where Tokyo markets were closed, the dollar recovered smartly against the euro and yen. The dollar-bloc and sterling are firmer. Sterling's earlier losses were recouped following news that the manufacturing PMI jumped to 56.1, its highest since June 2014.

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Weekly Speculative Positions: Speculators go short CHF again after a brief period of Long CHF

2017-01-03

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2017-01-03

Speculative Positions Commitments of traders Swiss Franc
The sudden adjustment of CHF speculative positions ended (see last week's post) . Speculators went net short CHF USD with 10K contracts, this is still far from the 26.K contracts record. We should wait for another Fed rate hike, to reach these levels again.

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FX Weekly Preview: What You Should Know to Start the First Week of 2017

2017-01-03

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2017-01-03

universalgod
Data has already been reported. Trends reversed in the last two weeks. US jobs data may disappoint. It will take a few more weeks to lift some of the uncertainty hanging over the markets.

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FX Weekly Review, December 26 – 30: Dollar Correction Poised to Continue

2017-01-02

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2017-01-02

US Dollar/Swiss Franc FX Spot Rate, December 30
The technical condition of the US dollar, which has been advancing through most of the Q4 16, has been deteriorating This led us to anticipate a consolidative or corrective phase.

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FX Daily, December 30: Dollar Slips into Year End

2016-12-30

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2016-12-30

New Year
In exceptionally thin conditions that characterize the year-end markets, a reportedly computer-generated order lifted the euro from about $1.05 to a little more than $1.0650 in a few minutes early in the Asian sessions.

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FX Daily, December 29: Dollar, Equities and Yields Fall

2016-12-29

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2016-12-29

FX Performance, December 29 2016 Movers and Shakers
In thin holiday markets, a correction to the trends seen in Q4 has materialized. The US dollar is heavy. Japanese and European equities are lower. Bonds are firmer.

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Cool Video: Double Feature on Bloomberg

2016-12-28

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2016-12-28

Marc Chandler
I am finishing the year like I began it, on Bloomberg Television, talking about the dollar and Fed policy. Bloomberg has made two clips of my interview available.

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FX Daily, December 28: Short Note for Holiday Markets

2016-12-28

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2016-12-28

FX Performance, December 28 2016 Movers and Shakers
Economic data: Japan stands out with industrial production in Nov rising 1.5%, the most in five months. It was a little less than expected, but the expectations for Dec (2%) and Jan (2.2%) are constructive.

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Great Graphic: Real Wages

2016-12-28

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2016-12-28

Real Wages 2007 - 2015
This Great Graphic caught my eye. It was tweeted by Ninja Economics. Her point was about immigration. German had much higher immigration than the UK, but also saw real wage increase of nearly 14% in the 2007-2015 period, while real wages in the UK fell nearly 10.5%.

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FX Daily, December 27: Markets Becalmed in Wait-and-See Mode

2016-12-27

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2016-12-27

Japan Construction Orders YoY, November 2016
As skeleton teams return to the trading desks in New York, the US dollar is largely where they left it at the end last week. Japanese markets were open yesterday, while UK, Australia, New Zealand, Hong Kong and Canadian markets are still closed today.

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FX Outlook 2017: Politics to Eclipse Economics

2016-12-26

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2016-12-26

Economic Events: United Kingdom, Week December 26
Investors are familiar with a broad set of macroeconomic variables that often drive asset prices. Many are familiar with corporate balance sheets, price-earning ratios, free cash flow, Q-ratio, and the like.

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Weekly Speculative Positions: After Fed Rate Hike, Speculators Close their Short CHF and Open Long CHF

2016-12-26

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2016-12-26

speculative position 20161226
The expiry of the December currency futures may spurred more than normal speculative position adjusting. The out-sized 27.9k contract jump in the speculative gross long Swiss franc futures position is a prime example.

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