Category Archive: 4) FX Trends

Main Author Marc Chandler
Marc Chandler
He has been covering the global capital markets in one fashion or another for more than 30 years, working at economic consulting firms and global investment banks. After 14 years as the global head of currency strategy for Brown Brothers Harriman, Chandler joined Bannockburn Global Forex, as a managing partner and chief markets strategist as of October 1, 2018.
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FX Daily, March 22: Terrorist Strike in Brussels Causes Market Angst

2016-03-22

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2016-03-22

A series of attacks at Brussels airport and metro casts a pall over the market.  The attacks come as Europe prepares what for many will be a long holiday weekend.  Gold, the dollar and yen seem to have been the beneficiaries.   Bonds are generally firmer and equities lower.   However, in late morning activity in London, …

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Emerging Markets: Preview of the Week Ahead

2016-03-20

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2016-03-20

EM ended the week on a mixed note after posting strong post-FOMC gains. The bounce in risk seems likely to continue this week, with little on the horizon to derail it. Specific country risk remains in play, however, with heightened political concerns in Brazil and South Africa. Taiwan reports February export orders Monday, which are …

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FX Daily: When a Quarter is Two Halves

2016-03-20

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2016-03-20

The year started off poorly, to say the least. Equity markets plunged from the get-go.  The Nikkei, DAX and S&P 500 gapped lower on the first trading day of the year.   Emerging markets and commodities were smashed.   Many economists blamed the Federal Reserve for hiking rates in mid-December.   Pundits warned that the seven-year bull … Continue...

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Weekly Speculative Positions: Pile into Sterling and Take Profits on Long Aussie

2016-03-19

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2016-03-19

After a relatively quiet period into the run-up to the ECB, speculative activity markedly increased in the CFTC reporting week ending the day prior to the conclusion of the FOMC meeting. Two speculative gross currency position adjustments stand out.  First, speculators appeared to have bought a record amount of sterling contracts.  The gross long position more …

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FX Daily, 03/19: Greenback Remains Technically Vulnerable

2016-03-19

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2016-03-19

The US dollar had a difficult week.  The price action after the ECB meeting had undermined the technical tone, and the dollar took another leg down after the FOMC moved closer to the market expectation by reducing the number of rate hikes the median official thinks will be appropriate this year from four to two. … Continue...

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Was the FOMC decision made at the G20?

2016-03-19

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The direction for the Fed comes from the top and in late February Yellen attended the G20 in China. Global markets turned around almost immediately after the summit. Were there whispers about central banks doing more?

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Has the USDJPY bottomed? The charts are showing some bullish signs.

2016-03-18

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The USDJPY took out the year and 17 month lows this week but failed. Is that and the BOJ concerns about the currrency enough to see a bounce in next weeks trading (for week starting March 21, 2016)

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A Technical look at the GBPUSD for the week ending March 18, 2016

2016-03-18

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Greg Michalowski of ForexLive takes a technical look at the GBPUSD as the week ends and traders look forward to the new trading week.

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Weekly Emerging Markets: What has Changed?

2016-03-18

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2016-03-18

China press is reporting that policymakers are drafting rules for a so-called Tobin tax on yuan transactions.  This would seem to go against China’s efforts at making the yuan more accessible and liquid.  While it could deter speculative activity, th...

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Thoughts on Conspiracy Theories of the Dollar’s Losses

2016-03-18

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2016-03-18

In our work, we have argued that the dollar is having its third significant rally since the end of Bretton Woods.   The first rally was associated with Reagan though it began under Carter and followed 100 bp hike by a new Federal Reserve Chairman...

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FX Daily 03/18: Dollar Trims Losses Ahead of the Weekend

2016-03-18

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2016-03-18

The US dollar is firmer against most major and emerging market currencies to pare this week's decline.  There are three notable exceptions, and they are all in Asia.  For all practical purposes, the dollar is flat against the Japanese yen near JP...

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FX Daily 03/17: When Doves Cry: Imprudently Cautious

2016-03-17

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2016-03-17

If there was one word Yellen emphasized yesterday it was caution.  The dot plot reflected that as well.  Can one ask if the Fed is being too cautious? Yellen acknowledged that the Fed's assessment of the US economy had not changed much from December.  There is little reason it should.  However, it is difficult to … Continue reading...

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A technical look at the EURUSD Mar 17 2016

2016-03-17

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In this video, Greg Michalowski from Forexlive takes a look at the EURUSD as it forms a pennant formation.

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The Morning Edge With Blake Morrow – SPECIAL – Marc Chandler along with Chris Bayer – 03/17/16

2016-03-17

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Blake (@PipCzar) interviews Marc Chandler. Marc Chandler has been covering the global capital markets in one fashion or another for more than 25 years, working at economic consulting firms and global investment banks. Chandler attended North Central College for undergraduate work, where he majored in political science and the humanities. He holds master’s degrees from …

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Great Graphic: Dollar Index Retracement, Too Soon To Say Top is In

2016-03-17

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2016-03-17

The cry that the dollar has peaked is gaining ground.  We are not convinced.  The macro-fundamental case remains intact.  Divergence between the US and other high income countries continues, even if at a more gradual pace than the Federal Reserve expected a few months ago. This Great Graphic of the Dollar Index, created on Bloomberg, …

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FX Daily 03/17: Dollar Drop Extends Post-Fed, Stocks, Bonds and Commodities Rally

2016-03-17

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2016-03-17

The Federal Reserve's cautiousness has sent the dollar reeling.  The Fed's backtracking to two hikes this year from four is still met with skepticism by the market.  It previously had a June hike nearly discounted but has not pushed that out unti...

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FX Daily 03/16: Fed Pulls Back to Two Hikes, Dollar Drops and Stocks Rally

2016-03-16

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2016-03-16

The Federal Reserve halved the number of rate hikes it anticipates this year from four to two.  The market has been moving toward this as well after having thought the would be no hikes this year.  The dollar sold off.  The dollar-bloc currencies and emerging market currencies are have rallied sharply. Risk assets in general …

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Brexit, Cyprus and the EU Summit

2016-03-16

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2016-03-16

The EU leaders summit on refugees begins tomorrow.   A conclusive agreement will likely be elusive.   There are three main obstacles.  First, the effort to reinforce the external borders to allow free internal movement requires Turkey's cooperation, but it won't be represented.  Second, that is important because Cyprus is demanding more concessions by Turkey.  Third, others …

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Dollar Firm Ahead of the FOMC, UK Budget Looms

2016-03-16

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2016-03-16

Since the Federal Reserve hiked rates in December, both the European Central Bank and the Bank of Japan have eased policy further.  The idea that because they cut rates means that the Fed cannot raise rates is a not a particularly helpful way to ...

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Why Donald Trump will be the next President

2016-03-15

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A year ago Donald Trump’s candidacy was a joke and to many people it still is, but he’s on the verge of winning the Republican nomination. Adam looks at why Donald Trump will keep winning all the way to the White House and what it says about the trends in politics. He also talks about … Continue reading »

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