What Does the Fed Know It’s Not Telling Us?

2023-11-20

(11/20/23) A look at the highest-grossing horror films of all time, and holiday week markets: July’s market exuberance was followed by a predicted decline into October, which was entirely normal for any given year. Now markets are over bought, and another pullback is imminent, likely between now and next week. Meanwihle, with many traders on holiday, silly season has descended upon Wall street. Portfolio managers will be rebalancing for end-of-year reporting and distributions. How will 2024 fare? Consumer Spending will be the driver. Automobiles & airfares are cheaper than one year ago; can these help create an "updraft" for the economy? There’s no slowdown in activity…yet. Coming will be holiday retails sales & Black Friday; the Roberts’ Christmas Wish Lists. Market preview; Gold

2023-11-17

(11/24/23)Withdrawal Rates & Recency Bias: Why Dave Ramsey is wrong about withdrawal rates. MorningStar: Dealing with higher fixed-income rates: not here to stay. Why the 4% Withdrawal Rate is back…for now. Sequence of Returns & Guaranteed Income when the withdrawal rate is not constant.
NOTE: This presentation includes video originally lost due to technical issues on the day the show was originally streamed.
0:00 – Teaser
1:03 – Withdrawal rates & Recency Bias: Ramsey is Wrong
7:43 – That part you may have missed…
12:20 – Sequence of Returns Risks & Guaranteed Income

Hosted by RIA Advisors’ Director of Financial Planning, Richard Rosso, CFP, w Senior Financial Advisor Danny Ratliff, CFP
Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer
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These segments are excerpted from a

2023-11-10

(11/10/23) It’s the Financial Fitness Friday edition of The Real Investment Show w RIA Advisors’ Director of Financial Planning, Richard Rosso, CFP, and Senior Advisor Jonathan Penn, CFP.
Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer
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The latest installment of our new feature, Before the Bell, "Markets Testing 100-DMA" is here: &list=PLwNgo56zE4RAbkqxgdj-8GOvjZTp9_Zlz&index=1
And here’s Wednesday’s "Before the Bell" edition, "Trapped," as referenced in this video:
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Our previous show is here: "Should You Borrow from Your 401k Plan?"
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Articles Mentioned in this Show:
"2020 vs 2023: Are Economists Making The Same Mistake?"

2023-08-30

(8/30/23) There will be some short-term economic benefit from the landfall of Hurricane Idalia in Florida–a momentary boost from damage repairs spending. Economic data has been coming in better-than-expected (because estimates had been lowered); bad news is good news again, in hopes the Fed will lower rates. Markets on Tuesday cleared resistance at the 20- and 50-DMA’s; mid- and small-company bankruptcies are on the rise as lag effect of higher interest rates sets in. A recent survey reveals 25% of young respondents’ life goals are to be a "social media influencer." What would you do with a financial windfall? Economic report preview; there’s been no gain in the market ex- the 7 stocks driving activity. Bankruptcies are on the rise in smaller companies; there are 10 prescription drugs

2023-08-29

(8/29/23) Hurricane Idalia is bearing down on Florida; will there be epic adventure stories from Florida Man? Will markets "catch-up" to economic data, or will the data begin to prove-out market optimism? Will there be a recession (still) or a soft-landing? Market rallies; more positive action to come? Challenging the 20- and 50-DMA: Have markets achieved highs for 2023? Factors that drive markets: Politics, geo-politics, economics, sentiment; What will be the impact of Student Loan Payment resumption? AI is estimated to replace 300-million jobs; what will be economic impact? What are the arguments driving markets? Markets are voting machines & weighing machines. Money in motion creates fees; long-term investors vs traders; importance of knowing the difference. The weight of reality vs

2023-08-17

(8/17/23) The Atlanta Fed is now predicting GDP growth at 5.8% for the 3rd quarter, and another rate increase is expected as liquidity continues to move through the system. The S&P needs to get above 50-DMA; correction is normal, and the bullish trend continues. Target vs WalMart: A tale of two retailers. Consumer sentiment is better; no Recession coming? FOMC meeting minutes reveal more rate hikes to come, but Fed’s views are mixed. Keeping a hawkish tone while allowing lag effect to play out. What will be a Black Swan Event? The saga of the Roberts’ Racoon continues; the Yeti casket; why have markets been rallying? Does this now set-up for Recession? The Lag Effect is real. Consumers and Corporate were preparing for higher rates by buying houses at low rates and borrowing when money