WWCMD: What Would #CharlieMunger Do? (11/29/23)

2024-03-05

Economic Data releases and Fed speeches today will resonate with a rising commentary of no rate cut(s) this year, thanks to sticky inflation. Target’s earnings show the consumer is still spending; markets continue in 4-month advance, longest since 1970. Preceding a correction? Markets are operating in a narrow trend channel, with money rotating out of Magnificent Seven Stocks and into meme stocks. Markets are in the midst of bullish exuberance; Lance’s emails are the best contrarian indicator. Valuations are an indicator of sentiment; why FOMO trumps Fundamentals; rationalization and the numbers game: Making up metrics to rationalize valuation: We’re still paying too much for equities. Bitcoin & ETF’s: The Dark Side of the Coin. Shorting ETF’s adds an additional layer of volatility.

2024-03-04

Markets are entering the three strgonest months of the year; what if interest arwets aren’t cut? February was unusually strong for a "weak" month; what happens during Presidential Election years? Looking at Volatility risk. Markets have been up for 16 of the past 18-weeks; such activity generalluy heralds a correction. Warren Buffett’s annual letter: What do to with $160-B in cash? The dilemma of cash and valuations; cash held by corporations is at an all-time high; Buffett’s favorite metric is Market Capitalization to GDP Ratio. Why it’s hard to find "reasonably priced" companies. When investing becomes gambling; the risk of market correction coming. Dumb Money vs Smart Money: Teaching kids to invest, not gamble.

3:13 – Entering Three Strongest Months of the Year
14:31 – Warren

2024-02-22

Has Nvidia become the world’s most-valuable company? The S&P is aiming at more all-time highs, but can they hold? Fed minutes reveal no rush to cut rates. The disconnect with markets’ expecting more cuts. Will the Fed reduce QT as money flows into markets? Meanwhile, markets continue to test rising trendline at 20-DMA, as consolidation continues. No reason to be bearish on markets…yet. What markets missed from Fed Minutes: the quantity of rate cuts to come. An unexpected risk: Effects of balance sheet run-off as Fed adjusts QT to manage liquidity. The unstoppable market: What is happening to Fed’s repo program; the Fed Liquidity Index. Have we returned to a bubble in Magnificent Seven stocks (and are they worthy of current valuations)? The hard part about managing portfolios: How does

2024-01-31

(1/31/24) Earnings season continues, with AMD, Google, Microsoft, and NVDIA expected to fall after turning in their reports: Earnings have been okay, but not as good as expected. After "good" reports, watch for increased volatility and rotation from the NASDAQ into the Dow. Bond prices are on the rise, yields are dropping, as Treasury announces a smaller than expected debt issuance. There’s a Trojan Horse in the proposed Childcare Tax Credit bill: a huge disincentive to work; the ugly truth about falling rates of inflation: Prices do not go back down. CPI-W vs CPI-E and how COLA is calculated. Danny’s home rehab update. "You Earned It, You Keep It" Act: what if could mean for retirees. SS Tax Repeal explainer; the evolution of SS, and repeal of SS earnings tax. Let’s fix the climate by

2023-12-08

Markets have had zero-returns over past two years. Why time in the market matters–especially if you’re young. Risk management is more important when you’re older; the 50/20/30 Rule.
Hosted by RIA Advisors’ Chief Investment Strategist Lance Roberts, CIO, w Senior Financial Advisor Danny Ratliff, CFP
Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer
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Watch today’s show on our YouTube channel:
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The latest installment of our new feature, Before the Bell, "What Happens When Buybacks Go Away " is here: -jBIrzg&list=PLwNgo56zE4RAbkqxgdj-8GOvjZTp9_Zlz&index=1
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Our previous show is here: "Is There Hope for 2024?"
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Articles Mentioned in this Show:
"Wall

2023-11-17

(11/17/23) Richard Rosso’s adventures in Houston traffic, market seasonality and stock-bond correlation: Why would the Fed cut interest rates now? WalMart’s results: What are companies going to do during deflation? Richard calls the Butterball Turkey Hotline; spending survey results for 2023 & Consumer Sentiment indexes: Why are American’s still spending? The WalMart Parking Lot Indicator. Withdrawal Rates & Recency Bias: Why Dave Ramsey is wrong about withdrawal rates. MorningStar: Dealing with higher fixed-income rates: not here to stay. Why the 4% Withdrawal Rate is back…for now. Sequence of Returns & Guaranteed Income when the withdrawal rate is not constant.

2:35 – Driving in Houston & Market Seasonality
13:51 – Butterball Turkey Talk Line
17:59 – Spending Results for 2023
29:57

2023-11-08

(11/8/23)
Hosted by RIA Advisors’ Chief Investment Strategist Lance Roberts, CIO
Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer
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The latest installment of our new feature, Before the Bell, "Will Markets Retest Today?" is here: -NOraPNew&list=PLwNgo56zE4RAbkqxgdj-8GOvjZTp9_Zlz&index=1
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Our previous show is here: "Why You Cannot Invest Like Warren Buffett"
-XJZYY&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe
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Articles Mentioned in this Show:
"Bond Bear Market. Is It Dead, Or Just Hibernating?"
https://realinvestmentadvice.com/bond-bear-market-is-it-dead-or-just-hibernating/
"Job And Retail Sales Data: Always Good Until They Aren’t"
https://realinvestmentadvice.com/job-and-retail-sales-data-always-good-until-they-arent/
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Get more info & commentary:

2023-10-31

(10/30/23)

Hosted by RIA Advisors’ Chief Investment Strategist Lance Roberts, CIO
Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer
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The latest installment of our new feature, Before the Bell, "Over-sold Markets are Under Pressure" is here: &list=PLwNgo56zE4RAbkqxgdj-8GOvjZTp9_Zlz&index=1
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Our previous show is here: "Reaching Your Hurdle Rate"
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Get more info & commentary:
https://realinvestmentadvice.com/newsletter/
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