Valuation Metrics Suggest Investor Caution
2024-03-05
Economic Data releases and Fed speeches today will resonate with a rising commentary of no rate cut(s) this year, thanks to sticky inflation. Target’s earnings show the consumer is still spending; markets continue in 4-month advance, longest since 1970. Preceding a correction? Markets are operating in a narrow trend channel, with money rotating out of Magnificent Seven Stocks and into meme stocks. Markets are in the midst of bullish exuberance; Lance’s emails are the best contrarian indicator. Valuations are an indicator of sentiment; why FOMO trumps Fundamentals; rationalization and the numbers game: Making up metrics to rationalize valuation: We’re still paying too much for equities. Bitcoin & ETF’s: The Dark Side of the Coin. Shorting ETF’s adds an additional layer of volatility.
Warren Buffett’s Cash Dilemma
2024-03-04
Markets are entering the three strgonest months of the year; what if interest arwets aren’t cut? February was unusually strong for a "weak" month; what happens during Presidential Election years? Looking at Volatility risk. Markets have been up for 16 of the past 18-weeks; such activity generalluy heralds a correction. Warren Buffett’s annual letter: What do to with $160-B in cash? The dilemma of cash and valuations; cash held by corporations is at an all-time high; Buffett’s favorite metric is Market Capitalization to GDP Ratio. Why it’s hard to find "reasonably priced" companies. When investing becomes gambling; the risk of market correction coming. Dumb Money vs Smart Money: Teaching kids to invest, not gamble.
3:13 – Entering Three Strongest Months of the Year
14:31 – Warren
Are The Magnificent Seven Stocks In A Bubble?
2024-02-22
Has Nvidia become the world’s most-valuable company? The S&P is aiming at more all-time highs, but can they hold? Fed minutes reveal no rush to cut rates. The disconnect with markets’ expecting more cuts. Will the Fed reduce QT as money flows into markets? Meanwhile, markets continue to test rising trendline at 20-DMA, as consolidation continues. No reason to be bearish on markets…yet. What markets missed from Fed Minutes: the quantity of rate cuts to come. An unexpected risk: Effects of balance sheet run-off as Fed adjusts QT to manage liquidity. The unstoppable market: What is happening to Fed’s repo program; the Fed Liquidity Index. Have we returned to a bubble in Magnificent Seven stocks (and are they worthy of current valuations)? The hard part about managing portfolios: How does
How Living Longer Will Impact Retirement
2024-01-31
(1/31/24) Earnings season continues, with AMD, Google, Microsoft, and NVDIA expected to fall after turning in their reports: Earnings have been okay, but not as good as expected. After "good" reports, watch for increased volatility and rotation from the NASDAQ into the Dow. Bond prices are on the rise, yields are dropping, as Treasury announces a smaller than expected debt issuance. There’s a Trojan Horse in the proposed Childcare Tax Credit bill: a huge disincentive to work; the ugly truth about falling rates of inflation: Prices do not go back down. CPI-W vs CPI-E and how COLA is calculated. Danny’s home rehab update. "You Earned It, You Keep It" Act: what if could mean for retirees. SS Tax Repeal explainer; the evolution of SS, and repeal of SS earnings tax. Let’s fix the climate by
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