Doing the Bond Math Amid Fiscal Dysfunction

2024-03-19

There’s a definite correlation between changes in stock buybacks and changes in market performance. With the closure of the stock buyback window by the blackout period, the effects will be interesting, especially with the prevailing attitudes in an over-extended market. We also notice Bitcoin is having an excellent correction. ance and Michael discuss the Fed’s Dot Plot and plans for Quantitative Easing: Which problem is easier to fix: Creating recession or inflation? Bank of Japan is ending it’s policy of negative rates; what will be the effect on the US? What’s the risk to the currency carry trade? Japan’s demographic problem. Is the Fed formulating a new type of QE? What QE does; is it inflationary? What the Fed can do; the stealth form of QE: Will it provide liquidity to markets?

2024-03-19

With the last half of March upon us, the blackout of stock buybacks threatens to reduce one of the liquidity sources supporting the bullish run this year. If you don’t understand the importance of corporate share buybacks and the blackout periods, here is a snippet of a 2023 article I previously wrote.

2024-03-10

Presidential elections and market corrections have a long history of companionship. Given the rampant rhetoric between the right and left, such is not surprising. Such is particularly the case over the last two Presidential elections, where polarizing candidates trumped policies.

2024-02-29

Stock buyback activity is on pace to reach new, all-time highs (and it’s only the end of February!) One reason for the gap between large-cap companies and small- and mid-caps is bigger companies’ ability to pour cash into buybacks. Will election season cause Wall St. to reduce risk? GDP and Consumer Sentiment numbers all revised downward, but confidence remains high in markets’ ability to perform. Lance & Michael discuss volatility in portfolio performance within complacent markets (volatility is negatively correlated with markets.) Indicators are never perfect; avoid basing portfolio on just indicators. Examining the pace of stock buybacks: Are they really of value? Why pay a premium? Buybacks increase share price, not value. Apple vs Tesla: There has been no real innovation from Apple

2024-01-03

(1/3/24) Millennials’ Bare Minimum Monday’s could produce some unexpected results; setting up for January market performance in a Presidential cycle; will the Magnificent 7 produce a repeat performance in 2024? Markets on Tuesday corrected to bounce off the 20-DMA, with high tech names under pressure. Buy-signals triggered for Bonds. Rich Dad/Poor Dad Czar Kiyosaki’s debt philosophies and how to properly leverage debt. Home Sales & inventory: Are we seeing the start of trouble in the sector? Wall Street axioms & The January Trifecta; take them with a grain of salt. Mistakes in portfolio & market perspectives, year to year. Social Security COLA for 2024; making choices to fix SS are vote killers for politicians. Retirement planning & Monte Carlo simulations; the future is not going to be

2023-12-05

(12/5/23)

Hosted by RIA Advisors’ Chief Investment Strategist Lance Roberts, CIO
Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer
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The latest installment of our new feature, Before the Bell, "Is a Sell-off Nigh for the Magnificent Seven?" is here: &list=PLwNgo56zE4RAbkqxgdj-8GOvjZTp9_Zlz&index=1
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Our previous show is here: "Will You Be Visited by Ghosts of Financial Mistakes-past?"
-vptVe1k&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=1&t=4s
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Articles Mentioned in this Show:
"Context And Facts Expose Bearish Bond Narratives"
https://realinvestmentadvice.com/context-and-facts-expose-bearish-bond-narratives/
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Get more info & commentary:
https://realinvestmentadvice.com/newsletter/
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Register for our next Candid Coffee:

2023-11-21

(11/21/23) Earnings Season continues with NVIDIA set to report this evening after the bell: expectations are high, and if there’s a miss, markets may punish. Markets have become very elevated only a month after everyone was so pessimisti. The Bond Market continues to surprise with a stellar acution of 20-year bonds. Will there be a Recession, a soft-landing, or no Reccession in 2024? Who knows?? Markets are over bought and need to take a breather at this point. The Recovering Californian & real turkey; the annual performance comparison: Don’t make this mistake! Why your portfolio hasn’t kept up with the S&P this year; the problem with comparisons; the origin of Turduckens; the truth about Home Sales numbers.

2:54 – Recession, Soft-landing, or No Recession in 2024?
14:30 – Why the S&P

2023-11-15

(11/15/23)
Hosted by RIA Advisors’ Chief Investment Strategist Lance Roberts, CIO, w Senior Financial Advisor, Danny Ratliff, CFP
Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer
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The latest installment of our new feature, Before the Bell, "Oil Prices Under Pressure" is here: &list=PLwNgo56zE4RAbkqxgdj-8GOvjZTp9_Zlz&index=1
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Our previous show is here: "Recession Fears Return as Bond Rates Drop"
&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=1&t=31s
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Articles Mentioned in this Show:
"Speculator Or Investor? What’s The Difference?"
https://realinvestmentadvice.com/speculator-or-investor-whats-the-difference/
"Bond Rates Drop As Recession Fears Return"
https://realinvestmentadvice.com/newsletter/
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Get more info & commentary: