Tag Archive: #USD

Yen is the Weakest Currency in the World over the Past Month

2017-05-15

by

2017-05-15

Yen was the strongest currency in the world from mid-March to mid-April. Yen has been the weakest currency over the past month. US rates have risen relative to Japan. Japan has shifted away from QE and toward targeting interest rate.

Read More »

FX Weekly Preview: Two Known Unknowns

2017-05-15

by

2017-05-15

The Trump Administration seems to be trying to cast the US as a revisionist power. Or perhaps it is like Roman emperors long ago trying to draw greater tribute from others. The outlook of US interest rates is critical to the outlook of the dollar.

Read More »

Great Graphic: Trade-Weighted Dollar

2017-05-13

by

2017-05-13

US TWI has appreciated a little since the end of Q1. The euro and sterling's strength are exceptions to the rule. The dollar has edged up against the currencies of the US top four trading partners here in Q2.

Read More »

FX Daily, May 12: Markets Becalmed Ahead of US data and Weekend

2017-05-12

by

2017-05-12

The foreign exchange market is becalmed, and the major currencies are little changed. The US dollar is mixed, but mostly a little lower. Sterling is the weakest of the majors, off 0.3%, near $1.2850, having been rebuffed by offers in front of $1.30 several times. It has not recovered from the quarterly inflation report and Carney's press conference.

Read More »

FX Daily, May 10: Markets Adjust to North Korean Threat, Fifth Fall in US Oil Inventories and Trump Drama

2017-05-10

by

2017-05-10

Investors absorbed a few developments that might have been disruptive for the markets with little fanfare. North Korea's ambassador to the UK warned that his country would go ahead with its sixth nuclear test, as South Korea elected a new president who wants to reduce tensions on the peninsula.

Read More »

FX Daily, May 09: Dollar Firms amid Position Adjustments

2017-05-09

by

2017-05-09

The election of Macron as French President has set off a bout of position adjustment that has seen the euro push back into the $1.0850-$1.0950 range that had confined activity for the two weeks between the first and second rounds of the French presidential election.

Read More »

FX Daily, May 08: Euro Bought on Rumor, Sold on Fact

2017-05-08

by

2017-05-08

The euro initially opened higher in Asia following confirmation that Macron was elected the next president of France, but quickly fell below $1.0960 before bouncing back toward $1.10 only to be sold again in early Europe below the pre-weekend low near $1.0950. A break now of $1.0930 could signal a return to the lower end of the range seen since the first round of the French election near $1.0850-$1.0870.

Read More »

FX Weekly Preview: Dollar Drivers

2017-05-08

by

2017-05-08

US retail sales and CPI should help bolster confidence that the Fed was right about the transitory nature of Q1 slowdown. Bank of England meets; Forbes will likely continue with her dissent, but likely failed to convince her other colleagues of the merit of an immediate rate hike. French politics are center stage, but German state election and South Korea's national election are also important.

Read More »

FX Daily, May 05: Mixed Dollar Ahead of US Jobs Data and Fed Talk

2017-05-05

by

2017-05-05

The US dollar is narrowing mixed as the employment data, and Fed speeches are awaited. Six Fed officials speak today, including Yellen and Fischer. Regional Presidents Williams, Rosengren Evans and Bullard also speak. It will be the first flurry of speeches since the FOMC meeting.

Read More »

FX Daily, May 04: Greenback Struggles to Sustain Upticks, Though Odds of June Hike Rise

2017-05-04

by

2017-05-04

The US dollar is struggling to maintain even modest upticks against the euro and sterling despite the recognition of the increased likelihood of a June Fed hike. Bloomberg sees current pricing in the Fed funds as making a hike in June a near certainty (97.5%), while the CME and our own calculation estimates the market is discounting around 70%-75% chance of a hike.

Read More »

FX Daily, May 03: Marking Time

2017-05-03

by

2017-05-03

The global capital markets are relatively calm. Japan, South Korea, and Hong Kong markets are closed for national holidays. Investors await the FOMC statement, though expectations could not be much lower. The disappointing US auto sales, and poor Apple sales figures reported yesterday have had little impact on the broader investment climate.

Read More »

FX Daily, May 02: Dollar and Yen Heavy, Equities Trade Higher and Bonds Lower

2017-05-02

by

2017-05-02

The US dollar is sporting a softer profile against most of the major and emerging market currencies. The Japanese yen is the main exception. The greenback is rising against the yen for the fourth session and the sixth of the past seven. The dollar's gains against the yen coincide with the 10-12 bp recovery in the US 10-year yields over the past ten sessions.

Read More »

FX Daily, May 01: May Day Calm

2017-05-01

by

2017-05-01

Many financial centers are closed for May. Japanese markets were open today, but will be closed for three sessions beginning Wednesday for the Golden Week celebrations. The US dollar is narrowly mixed.

Read More »

FX Weekly Preview: Looking Through the FOMC Meeting as it Looks Past Poor Q1 GDP

2017-05-01

by

2017-05-01

US jobs and auto sales data may be more important than the FOMC meeting. Norway and Australia's central bank meets. Neither is expected to change policy. All three large countries that reported Q1 GDP figures last week - US, UK, France - disappointed expectations.

Read More »

FX Daily, April 28: Markets Limp into Month End

2017-04-28

by

2017-04-28

Equity markets are stalling into the end of the month. MSCI Asia-Pacific Index is snapping a six-day advance, and the week's gain was sufficient to extend the advancing streak for the fourth consecutive month. The Dow Jones Stoxx 600 is trading off for the second consecutive session, after rallying for six consecutive sessions.

Read More »

FX Daily, April 27: Several Developments ahead of the ECB meeting

2017-04-27

by

2017-04-27

The ECB meeting and the press conference that follows it is the main event. However, it has had to compete with the Bank of Japan and Riksbank meetings, as well as the further reflection of the tax reform proposals by the Trump Administration yesterday.

Read More »

FX Daily, April 26: Dollar Stabilizes Ahead of Trump and ECB

2017-04-26

by

2017-04-26

The US dollar was marked down in response to the French election and saw some follow through selling yesterday, but the momentum had slowed, and now it is stalled. The greenback is posting upticks against nearly all the major currencies. There is a good reason to be cautious.

Read More »

FX Daily, April 25: Euro Consolidates Gains, Bond Market Sell-Off Continues

2017-04-25

by

2017-04-25

The US dollar is again at the fulcrum of the foreign exchange market. The dollar-bloc currencies are under pressure, along with the Japanese yen, while the European complex is posting modest gains. The euro is consolidating in the half cent below $1.09. Yesterday's marked up in early Asia saw the euro complete the 61.8% retracement of the losses since the US election, which was found near $1.0935

Read More »

FX Daily, April 24: Dramatic Response to French Election

2017-04-24

by

2017-04-24

The results of the first round of the French election spurred a dramatic response in the capital markets. Our thesis that there is no populist-nationalist wave sweeping the world is supported by the previous results in Austria, the Netherlands, and now France.

Read More »