Tag Archive: usd-jpy

FX Weekly Review, April 03-08: Dollar Recovery Can Continue, 10-year Yield Set to Rise

2017-04-10

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2017-04-10

Trade-weighted index Swiss Franc, April 01
The US dollar appreciated against most of the major currencies last week. The Japanese yen was the chief exception. It rose about 0.5% as US yields remained heavy and equities were mostly softer. The Dollar Index did not fall in any session last week. It has had one losing session over the past nine, and that was the last day in March when the Dollar Index slipped less than 0.1%. It finished the week a bit above thee 61.8% retracement objective of...

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FX Weekly Review, March 27 – 31: Euro breaks down against USD and CHF

2017-04-02

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2017-04-02

Trade-weighted index Swiss Franc, April 01
Weak inflation figures in the euro zone let the common currency fall against both the dollar and the Swiss franc. Still last week, the Swiss Franc index had some losses against the US dollar index.

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FX Weekly Review, March 20 – March 25: Dollar Bottom Near?

2017-03-26

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2017-03-26

Swiss Franc Index Trade-weighted index Swiss Franc, 1m
In the last week, the Swiss Franc index recovered and gained about 2%. The dollar index lost 1.5%. Position adjustments: The dollar tended to trade heaviest against those currencies that speculators were short, like the euro, yen, and sterling.

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TIC Analysis of Selling

2017-03-25

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2017-03-25

When the Treasury Department released its Treasury International Capital (TIC) data for December, what was a somewhat obscure report suddenly found mainstream attention. Private foreign investors had sold tens of billions in US securities primarily US Treasury bonds and notes which the media then made into some kind of warning to then-incoming President Trump. It was supposed to be a big deal, the kind of rebuke reserved for disreputable leaders of...

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Pressure, Sure, But From Where?

2017-03-22

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2017-03-22

Belly of the Curve Gone Flat 2009-2017
It may just be that in life you have to get used to disappointment. Though not for lack of trying, I have spent a great deal of time over the years intending to piece together exactly what happened on days like October 15, 2014. The official explanation is an obvious whitewash, one so haphazard that I doubt it will ever be referred to again outside of ridicule.

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FX Weekly Review, March 13 – March 18: Fed Disappoints, Dollar Losses

2017-03-19

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2017-03-19

Trade-weighted index Swiss Franc, March 18
The failure of the Fed to signal an increased pace of normalization and the prospects of other central banks raising rates spurred dollar losses, which deteriorated its technical outlook.

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FX Weekly Review, March 06 – March 11: CHF loses against the euro

2017-03-12

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2017-03-12

Trade-weighted index Swiss Franc, March 11
The Swiss Franc lost this week in particular against the euro, given that Mario Draghi was less dovish than expected. If the stronger euro is driven only by speculators, or also by "real money" (investments in cash, bonds, stocks) will be visible in Monday's sight deposits release.

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FX Weekly Review, February 27 – March 04: Dramatic Shift in Fed Expectations Spurs Dollar Gains, but Now What?

2017-03-05

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2017-03-05

Trade-weighted index Swiss Franc, March 04
The pendulum of market sentiment swung hard and fast toward a Fed rate hike in the middle of March. The signals from Fed officials, including Governor Brainard and Powell, spurred the move. According to Bloomberg, the market had discounted a 90% chance of a hike before Yellen and Fischer spoke. A week ago, Bloomberg calculations showed a 40% chance of a move.

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FX Weekly Review, February 20 – 25: Ranges in FX: Respect the Price Action

2017-02-26

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2017-02-26

Trade-weighted index Swiss Franc, February 25
It is difficult right now to talk about the foreign exchange market using the dollar as the numeraire. The dollar was stronger against most of the major currencies last week, but not the yen or sterling. The Dollar Index itself was little changed, rising less than 0.15%.

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FX Weekly Review, February 13 – 18: Why still long the dollar?

2017-02-19

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2017-02-19

Swiss Franc Index Trade-weighted index Swiss Franc
Arguments for being long the dollar: FX investors because of the difference in monetary policy (e.g. higher US rates), Bond investors long US Bonds because higher bond yields, On the other side, European and Swiss equities are not so much overvalued as U.S. stocks are.

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FX Weekly Review, February 06 – 11: Further Dollar and CHF Strength versus Euro weakness ahead?

2017-02-12

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2017-02-12

Swiss Franc Index Trade-weighted index Swiss Franc
We are expecting a further strengthening of both dollar and Swiss Franc against the euro over the next 3 months. Reason is the rising Swiss demand the continued dovishness of the ECB, despite rising inflation.

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FX Weekly Review, January 09 – 14: Dollar Correction may be Over or Nearly So

2017-01-15

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2017-01-15

US Dollar/Swiss Franc FX Spot Rate, December 30
For the first week since the election of Trump, the Swiss Franc index had a clearly better performance than the dollar index. It improved by 1.5% in the last ten days.

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FX Weekly Review, January 02 – 07: Is the corrective phase of the dollar over?

2017-01-08

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2017-01-08

US Dollar/Swiss Franc FX Spot Rate, December 30
The lack of full participation and the resulting choppy conditions may have obscured the signal from the capital markets. That signal we think was one of correction since shortly after the Fed's rate hike in id-December. The question now, after the US employment data showed continued labor market strength and that earnings improvement remains intact, is whether the corrective phase is over.

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FX Weekly Review, December 26 – 30: Dollar Correction Poised to Continue

2017-01-02

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2017-01-02

US Dollar/Swiss Franc FX Spot Rate, December 30
The technical condition of the US dollar, which has been advancing through most of the Q4 16, has been deteriorating This led us to anticipate a consolidative or corrective phase.

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FX Weekly Review, December 19 – December 23: Assessment of the Dollar’s Technical Condition

2016-12-26

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2016-12-26

Trade-weighted index Swiss Franc, December 23
The small adjustment to Fed’s anticipated path for the Fed funds target helped lift the US dollar to its highest level against the euro since 2003, and to ten-month highs against the Japanese yen. The graph shows that the dollar has improved by 25% against the euro, but only by 10% against CHF over the last 3 years.

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FX Weekly Review, December 12 – December 16: Fed Lifts Dollar, but Consolidation may be on Tap

2016-12-18

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2016-12-18

USD/CHF compared to USD/EUR, 2011-2016 US Dollar Swiss Franc Euro
The small adjustment to Fed’s anticipated path for the Fed funds target helped lift the US dollar to its highest level against the euro since 2003, and to ten-month highs against the Japanese yen. The graph shows that the dollar has improved by 25% against the euro, but only by 10% against CHF over the last 3 years.

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FX Weekly Review, December 05 – December 09: Dollar Bulls Running Out of Time to See Parity vs Euro in 2016

2016-12-11

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2016-12-11

Trade-weighted index Swiss Franc, December 02
  Swiss Franc Currency Index The Swiss Franc index remained in a losing position compared to the dollar index. However since November 25, it has remained stable. Given that the ECB extended the QE period, the EUR/CHF has fallen to 1.0730 again.   USD/CHF The US dollar is finishing the year on a firm note.  It rose … Continue reading »

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Yen and US Yields

2016-12-06

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2016-12-06

Dollar-yen has been driven by the sharp rise in US bond yields. There are some (dollar) bearish divergences in the JPY/USD technicals. US 10-year yields may also be putting in a near-term top.

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FX Weekly Review, November 28 – December 02: CHF Index still at its 4% loss since U.S. Elections

2016-12-04

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2016-12-04

Trade-weighted index Swiss Franc, December 02
The Swiss Franc index continued around its 4% loss since the U.S. elections, while the US Dollar index had a 4% increase. The focus shifts to the ECB meeting, where participants are wary of a "hawkish ease".

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FX Weekly Review, November 21 – November 25: Dollar Strength Losing Steam

2016-11-27

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2016-11-27

Swiss Franc Index Trade-weighted index Swiss Franc
After a three-week rally, the dollar bulls finally showed signs of tiring ahead of the weekend. At least against the Swiss Franc index, the dollar index could further advance. We had observed SNB interventions in the previous week that kept the euro mostly above 1.07.

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