Tag Archive: usd-jpy

A Few Questions From Today’s BOND ROUT!!!!

On April 2, the benchmark 10-year US Treasury yield traded below 2.75%. It had been as high as 2.94% in later February at the tail end of last year’s inflation hysteria. But after the shock of global liquidations in late January and early February, liquidity concerns would override again at least for a short while. After April 2, the BOND ROUT!!!! was re-energized and away went interest rates.

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Fed Delivers, Market Yawns

The Federal Reserve did what it was widely to do. The fed funds target range was lifted 25 bp to 2.00-2.25%. Three-quarters of Fed officials anticipate a hike in December. The market had discounted around an 80% chance. The Fed sticks with the three rate hikes in 2019 and one in 2020. The year-end rate in 2021 is the same as in 2020.

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Great Graphic JPY Struggles at Trendline

This Great Graphic is a weekly bar chart of the dollar-yen exchange rate.  It shows a three-year downtrend line (white line).  The US dollar had popped above it last month, but this proved premature and has not closed about it for a month.  The trendline is found near JPY111.55 now.

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US-Japan Trade Talks

The withdrawal of the US from the Trans-Pacific Partnership trade agreement lift it exposed on two fronts. First, the TPP was going to modernize the NAFTA. Without, the US remains locked in protracted negotiations. A breakthrough in talks with Mexico has been reportedly imminent for weeks.

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Fed Looks to September

There was little doubt in the market's collective mind that the Federal Reserve, which hiked rates in July, would stand pat today. It did not disappoint. The statement itself was almost identical. Growth was said to be "strong" instead of "solid," for example, a nuance to be lost on most observers. It recognized that the unemployment rate stabilized after falling.

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Euro, Yen, and Equities: Reviewed

US equities and the dollar appear to be moving higher together.  The greenback is near its best level this year against most of the major and emerging market currencies.  The Chinese yuan is not an exception to this generalization.  At the same time, the S&P 500 is at its best levels since the downdraft February, and the NASDAQ set a new record high earlier in the week. 

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Weekly Technical Analysis: 04/06/2018 – USD/CHF, EUR/JPY, GBP/USD, AUD/USD, WTI

The USDCHF pair managed to break 0.9850 level and closed the daily candlestick below it, which supports the continuation of our bearish overview efficiently in the upcoming period, paving the way to head towards 0.9723 level as a next station, noting that the EMA50 supports the expected decline, which will remain valid for today conditioned by the price stability below 0.9870.

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Weekly Technical Analysis: 21/05/2018 – USD/JPY, EUR/USD, GBP/JPY, USD/CAD, USD/CHF

The USDCHF pair reaches the key support 0.9955 now, and as we mentioned in our last report, breaking this level will confirm completing the double top pattern that appears on the chart, to rally towards our negative targets that begin at 0.9900 and extend to 0.9850. Therefore, we will continue to suggest the bearish trend supported by the negative pressure formed by the EMA50, unless the price managed to rally upwards to breach 1.0055 level and...

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Weekly Technical Analysis: 14/05/2018 – USD/JPY, EUR/USD, EUR/JPY, GBP/USD, USD/CHF

The USDCHF pair provided positive trading yesterday to test 1.0000 level and settles around it, and as long as the price is below this level, our bearish overview will remain valid, noting that our next target is located at 0.9900, while breaching 1.0000 followed by 1.0055 levels represent the key to regain the main bullish trend again. Expected trading range for today is between 0.9920 support and 1.0055 resistance.

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Weekly Technical Analysis: 07/05/2018 – USD/JPY, EUR/USD, GBP/USD, Gold

The USDCHF pair’s recent trades are confined within mew minor bearish channel that we believe it forms bullish flag pattern, thus, the price needs to breach 1.0035 to activate the positive effect of this pattern followed by rallying towards our waited target at 1.0100. Therefore, we will continue to suggest the bullish trend supported by the EMA50, unless we witnessed clear break and hold below 1.0000. Expected trading range for today is between...

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Weekly Technical Analysis: 23/04/2018 – USD/JPY, EUR/USD, GBP/USD, AUD/USD, WTI oil futures

The USDCHF pair touched the bullish channel’s resistance that appears on the chart, and the price might be forced to show some temporary decline to test the support base formed above 0.9790 before resuming the rise again. In general, we will continue to suggest the bullish trend supported by the EMA50, depending on the organized trading inside the mentioned bullish channel, noting that our next target is located at 0.9900, while holding above...

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Weekly Technical Analysis: 16/04/2018 – USD/CHF, USD/JPY, EUR/GBP, GBP/USD, USD/CAD

The USDCHF pair breached 0.9675 level and closed the daily candlestick above it, to open the way to achieve more rise in the upcoming sessions, paving the way to head towards 0.9790 as a next main station. Therefore, the bullish trend will be suggested, supported by the EMA50, noting that breaking 0.9675 and holding below it will push the price to test 0.9581 level before determining the next trend clearly.

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Weekly Technical Analysis: 02/04/2018 – Gold, WTI Oil Futures, GER30 Index, USD/JPY

The USDCHF pair attempted to breach 0.9581 level yesterday but it returns to move below it now, which keeps the bearish trend scenario valid until now, supported by stochastic move within the overbought areas, waiting to head towards 0.9488 as a first target.

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Weekly Technical Analysis: 26/03/2018 – USD/JPY, EUR/USD, GBP/USD, AUD/JPY, GBP/JPY, USD/CHF

The USDCHF pair provided negative trades after 0.9488 proved its strength against the recent positive attempts, to keep the bearish trend scenario valid efficiently in the upcoming period, supported by the EMA50 that pushes negatively on the price, waiting to test 0.9373 initially.

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Weekly Technical Analysis: 19/03/2018 – USD/JPY, EUR/USD, GBP/USD, NZD/USD, USD/CHF

The USDCHF pair leaned well on 0.9488 level to resume its positive trading, on its way towards our first waited target at 0.9581, as the price moves inside bullish channel that appears on the above chart, supported by the EMA50 that protects trading inside this channel, noting that breaching the targeted level will extend the pair’s gains to reach 0.9675.

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Weekly Technical Analysis: 12/03/2018 – USDJPY, EURUSD, GBPUSD, Gold

The USDCHF pair traded negatively yesterday to break 0.9488 and settles below it, which stops the positive effect of the recently mentioned bullish pattern and push the price to decline again, targeting heading towards 0.9373 initially.

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Weekly Technical Analysis: 05/03/2018 – USDJPY, EURUSD, GBPUSD, EURGBP, AUDUSD

The USDCHF pair shows sideways trading around the EMA50, noticing that the EMA50 shows clear negative signals on the four hours’ time frame, while the price settles below the intraday bullish channel’s support line that appears on the chart.

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Less scope for yen and Swiss franc depreciation

The start of the year has seen the Japanese yen and Swiss franc appreciate strongly against the US dollar (they rose by 5.6% and 4.4% respectively between 1 January and 22 February) despite higher US yields. However, this rise in US yields came with heightened market volatility, favouring safe haven currencies such as the yen and franc.

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Weekly Technical Analysis: 20/02/2018 – USD/JPY, EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/CAD, USD/CHF

The USDCHF pair approached our waited target yesterday, represented by the bearish channel’s resistance that appears on the above chart, noticing that the price faces good resistance at the EMA50, which forms negative pressure that we expect to push the price to resume its main bearish track again.

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Weekly Technical Analysis: 12/02/2018 – USD/JPY, EUR/USD, GBP/USD, WTI Oil Futures, USD/CHF

The USDCHF pair trading settles below the previously broken support that appears in the image, while stochastic provides negative overlapping signal on the four hours time frame, which supports the continuation of our bearish trend expectations in the upcoming sessions, reminding you that our next target at 0.9254.

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