Tag Archive: U.S. Trade Balance

Employment Details Better than the Headlines

The US created fewer jobs than anticipated and the December gain was revised lower.  However, the other details were favorable--better than expected.  The unemployment rate ticked down to 4.9%, a new cyclical low, despite the rise in the participation rate (62.7% from 62.6%). Average hourly earnings were stronger than expected at 2.5%.  The consensus expected …

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Stocks and Commodities Higher, Bonds and Dollar Mostly Lower

Emerging market currencies are mostly lower, though the South African rand is slightly firmer. The Russian ruble's decline has been extended into the fourth sessions and brings its loss this month to 8.5%, the worst performing emerging market currenc...

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(1) What Determines FX Rates?

The effects of so-called “currency wars” and other central bank actions are small compared to the long-term impact made by these five catalysts, which include credit cycles, trade balance, differences in economic growth, and more.

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Swiss Franc History: Weak German and Swiss growth between 1996 and 2004

A critical Swiss Franc History: Between 1996 and 2004 Switzerland and its main trading partner and FX proxy Germany saw slower growth compared to other European countries. We explain the reasons

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Official Eurostat Trade Balance Massively Distorted by UK Sales Of 1464 Tonnes of Gold To Switzerland

In 2013, private investors from the UK sold net (!) 1464 tons of physical gold (and similar) for a value 44.3 billion EUR. This was 1 464 000 kilograms each at the current price of 30254€ per kilo

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Fast CHF and Gold Price Movements

Our CHF and Gold News Bar on our home page explains daily CHF and gold price movements based on the most important fundamental indicators in a few sentences. Keep in mind that the only Swiss fundamental data that is able to move the CHF must come from the SNB and from Swiss inflation data – … Continue reading »

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Fundamentals, FX, Gold and CHF: Week October 21 to 25

Major Fundamental Events The week contained a lot of important fundamental events, in particular Non-Farm Payrolls and preliminary “flash” PMI readings.   Highest importance for FX rates Non-Farm Payrolls (NFPs) weakened to 148K, private NFPs to 126K, both against 180K expected. Especially the private NFPs were disappointing. The decrease in the unemployment rate from 7.3% …

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Why There Won’t Be A Strong Dollar, Even If The Financial Establishment Thinks So

In this second part of our series we provide arguments why the widely expected strong dollar period might not come. We look at the most important economic indicators that might justify a stronger dollar: the ISM manufacturing index and the interest rate differences between the U.S. and Europe.

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FX Theory: Understand Terms of Trade and Price-Adjusted Trade Balances



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The vicious cycle of the US economy or why the US dollar must ultimately fall again

Just some simple words about the vicious cycle of the US economy and the consequences on the US dollar: A stronger USD will not rescue the US economy, quite the contrary. US companies will not hire in the US, but outsource or hire overseas. If they hire in the US, due to the high number …

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