Tag Archive: U.S. Participation Rate

The participation rate is an important indicator of the supply of labor. It measures the share of the working-age population either working or looking for work. The number of people who are no longer actively searching for work would not be included in the participation rate.

North American Jobs Report and Implications

2016-07-08

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2016-07-08

There is something for everyone in today's US jobs report, and at the end of the day, it is unlikely to sway opinion about the direction and timing of the next Fed move. The greenback itself may remain range bound after the initial flurry. On the other hand, the disappointing but noisy Canadian data underscores the risk of a more dovish slant to the central bank's neutral stance next week.

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Stocks Set Another Valuation Record

2016-06-14

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2016-06-14

Believe It Or Not… There Actually Is Some Downside Risk BALTIMORE – Not much action in the stock market last week. A few little steps ahead to over the 18,000 line for the Dow. Then a few little steps back. Currently  the index sits at 17,732.   Th...

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FX Weekly Preview: Four Central Bank Meetings and More

2016-06-12

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2016-06-12

A couple of weeks ago, the four central banks that meet in the coming days were thought to be a big deal.  Numerous Federal Reserve officials were preparing the market for a summer hike. Risks of a new downturn in Japan spurred spe...

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FX Daily, June 3: FX Market Shocked by Non-Farm Payrolls

2016-06-04

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2016-06-04

Massive surprise in the US job report was reflected in currency rates. The EUR/CHF surprisingly increased, despite weak US data. This reflects the fact that the ECB is currently considered the most dovish central bank. The dollar lost 2% against the yen, 1.6% against the euro and 1.3% vs. the Swiss franc.

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FX Daily, May 19: FOMC Minutes Extend Dollar Gains

2016-05-19

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2016-05-19

We felt strongly that the FOMC minutes would be more hawkish than the statement that followed the meeting, and we were not disappointed.  However, our caveat remains:  the minutes dilute the signal that emanates from the Fed’s leadership, Yellen, Fischer, and Dudley.  The latter two speak in the NY morning.  Fischer and Dudley’s comment will be scrutinized …

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Dollar Drivers in the Week Ahead

2016-05-08

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2016-05-08

The key issue facing the foreign exchange market is whether the modicum of strength the US dollar demonstrated last week is the beginning of a sustainable move.  It is possible that the market is again at a juncture in which the price action will...

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US Jobs Headline Better than Details

2016-03-04

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2016-03-04

The optics of the US jobs report was better than the details, which is the exact opposite of the January employment report.  The US dollar strengthened on the news. The US created 242k jobs in February.  The consensus was for around 195k.  The January gain of 151k was revised up to 172k The household survey … Continue reading »

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Dollar Beaten Back but Cynicism is Unwarranted

2016-02-06

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2016-02-06

From a technical perspective, the dollar's pullback has been largely corrective in nature. Leaving aside the yen, against the other major currencies, the dollar is correcting a run-up that began in mid-October.  The chief exception is sterling, which...

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Employment Details Better than the Headlines

2016-02-05

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2016-02-05

The US created fewer jobs than anticipated and the December gain was revised lower.  However, the other details were favorable--better than expected.  The unemployment rate ticked down to 4.9%, a new cyclical low, despite the rise in the participation rate (62.7% from 62.6%). Average hourly earnings were stronger than expected at 2.5%.  The consensus expected …

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Dollar Edges Lower, Markets Trying to Stabilize

2016-02-03

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2016-02-03

The US dollar is sporting a softer profile today as the global capital markets are trying to stabilize.  Oil prices have steadied, with WTI back above $30.   Bond markets are narrowly mixed though the 10-year US Treasury is steady near 1.85%.  Asian and European equities followed US markets lower, but American equities have stabilized, and …

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Market Turmoil Continues, Risk Shunned

2016-01-14

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2016-01-14

Investors still have not found solid footing this year.  Equity markets have continued to sink, even though China's equities advanced.  Bond markets are mostly firmer, with the US 10-year yield seemingly being drawn back toward 2.0%.  Oil prices are little changed, after Brent slipped to marginal new lows.   There is much talk about the Iranian …

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US Growth Accelerates, Dollar Advances

2016-01-08

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2016-01-08

US grew nearly 300k jobs in December.  The October and November jobs growth were revised up by 50k.  The unemployment rate was unchanged at 5.0%, even though the participation rate ticked up. If there was  a disappointment it was that hourly earnings did not rise as much as expected.  The 2.5% year-over-year growth from 2.3% …

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Four Drivers of the Investment Climate in 2016

2015-12-20

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2015-12-20

The broad interpretative framework we developed since late 2014, one that centers the de-synchronization of the major economies, will retain its usefulness into the New Year and beyond.  The first phase of divergence was characterized by the Fe...

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Greenback Recovers, but Antipodeans Advance

2015-12-10

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2015-12-10

There are two broad themes among the major currencies today.  The first is the pullback in the euro and yen after yesterday's run-up.  Position adjustments with the help of stop losses seemed to be the key consideration.  Both the euro and yen extended the recovery seen in the second half of last week.  Year-end considerations, …

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Jobs Data Keeps Fed on Track to Hike

2015-12-04

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2015-12-04

After the ECB's disappointment yesterday market nerves were shattered, but the largely as expected US jobs data may help the focus return to the underlying fundamental fact.  The ECB just eased policy.  Not as much as the market expected, and t...

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From the ECB’s Failure to Communicate to US Jobs to Confirm Fed Signals

2015-12-04

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2015-12-04

The only way to explain the largest swing in the euro in six years yesterday is to appreciate the disconnect between what was expected and what was delivered by the ECB.  Draghi's urgency and commitment to do "what it must" fanned expectations, a...

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Great Graphic: Decline of U.S. Participation Rate Explained

2015-11-30

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2015-11-30

The decline in the labor force participation rate helps explain the substantial decline in the US unemployment rate over the past couple of years.  That decline has helped bring the Federal Reserve to the point that a December rate hike is thought to be extremely likely barring a significant disappointment at the end of the …

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US Economic Indicators

US Recession Indicators Concurrent Indicators
The four best US economic indicators, in form of concurrent indicators, can be seen at Doug Short, here in detail.

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Labor Participation Rates: Falling in the Ageing U.S., Rising in Ageing Germany and Crisis-Hit Italy

The most effective ways of measuring employment is by looking at the Labor Participation Rate. We compare the participation rates of the United States, Canada, the U.K., Germany and Italy.

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Pictet Become “Secular Dollar Bulls” and Gold Bashers: Our Response

2013-06-01

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2013-06-01

  Precisely at the moment when the dollar undergoes a secular bashing with a 6% loss against the yen and 3% against the euro, Pictet publish their “secular dollar bull era” video and recommend investors to avoid gold. “Secular movements” in currency markets are mostly driven by current account (CA) surpluses or deficits, while housing …

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